How much longevity will modesty buy me?

[Villiam]

So here's my deal-- after reading Norm's chapter on heat I wanted to explore the concept a little further (and thank you Norm for just a killer free book, btw!). I have a pretty concrete example to offer you guys here for a firm premise and a question that follows... Please critique critique critique without being mean about it and remember that I'm trying to devise a plan that works for me, not you. Also, am I mistaken that I can't use Norm's software without PC or can I get it on an old MacBook? Any use of real data will help the discussion along tremendously.

I have a small bankroll that I'm just going to say is non-replenishable and set at $3000. I wish to play with a low ROR and play long sessions. I also wish most to have minimal heat. I have picked two local shops for their light heat, better rules, and better pen. I play 6-deckers. I have befriended as many dealers as I can (many dealers rotate in as pit bosses, and I firmly believe that *some* of the dealers that don't are smarter than those that do). I tip. I smile. I talk. I drink. I have refined my act without needing to tell any lies or disguise myself. I rarely if ever ask for small comps and I get them. What I have not done is pursue many risk averse indexes or betting camos as I feel they waste a fair advantage. This means I "go with my gut" with 16s v 10 (which just means I usually don't hit as per the index) and do the same with 15 v 10 also out of a feigned fear (big bet out) along with mumbo-jumbo talk about how I know the dealer will bust and I know I will bust. I do the -1 indexes properly too. Anyway, point is, only index play I won't employ is splitting 10s. Occasionally I will employ a small bet camo like leading out a shoe with 2 units.

Ok, here's where the modesty kicks in-- I have a teeeneeee spread. 1-7 units, 5 dollar table, so $5-$35. I Wong in occasionally or side count another table and more importantly I also am Wonging out as appropriate at <-1. I also try to piggyback onto people's refused doubles. I'm playing games with a .49-.29 house advantage and here are my spread details:

TC -1 to .5 = $5
TC .5 to 1 = $10
TC 1 to 2 = $15
TC 2 to 3 = $20
TC 3 to 4 = $25
TC 4 to 5 = $30
TC >5 = $35

Now, I ran an amateur expectation analysis for this and got an hourly (actually /100 hands) of $12.4 (shout at me if this seems way off). Obviously, this might seem silly low to many of you but I've worked shittier jobs for less. I am recently physically disabled in my mid-thirties and never really liked work and I got a beautiful new baby girl to support so the possibility of being my own boss is enticing and I know that I can do more once I build a bankroll. I also know that there is nothing better than a ton of real life practice, which the modesty of this bet structure promotes.

After looking a little closer at things I realized that in three trips a week with long sessions (10hrs+) I could expect to hit $25,000 in a year. This is where alarm bells started going off in my head. That seems like an incredible sum for a smart basic strategy red chipper that whimsically departs from basic strategy in all kinds of ways that benefit him and has an average bet of 12 bucks. So, I've started to rathole if i can even at this level and I'm just wondering, how much heat am I gonna get? Does my game ever end? How much does a casino care about me or the small numbers I put up? What else can I do to camo and minimalize heat? Am I leaving out anything important? Boz, you may have a lot of great input on this; it sounds very similar to your experience playing 6 deckers with minimal heat. Thanks in advance guys; I've learned a wealth more about card counting/AP than I thought I knew already.

[LoneWoLF]

Forget about heat at those levels. You're just costing yourself money. Play as aggressive as possible. Even at higher levels play as aggressive as possible, just keep your sessions as short as possible, stick and move. If you're worried about heat you already messed up and you should think what you have done wrong in the first place to attract such attention.

[Villiam]

LoneWoLF, others, I guess my simple sum-up question for this post would be "Do I ever get backed off?" in this scenario...

[Boz]

So here's my deal-- after reading Norm's chapter on heat I wanted to explore the concept a little further (and thank you Norm for just a killer free book, btw!). I have a pretty concrete example to offer you guys here for a firm premise and a question that follows... Please critique critique critique without being mean about it and remember that I'm trying to devise a plan that works for me, not you. Also, am I mistaken that I can't use Norm's software without PC or can I get it on an old MacBook? Any use of real data will help the discussion along tremendously.

I have a small bankroll that I'm just going to say is non-replenishable and set at $3000. I wish to play with a low ROR and play long sessions. I also wish most to have minimal heat. I have picked two local shops for their light heat, better rules, and better pen. I play 6-deckers. I have befriended as many dealers as I can (many dealers rotate in as pit bosses, and I firmly believe that *some* of the dealers that don't are smarter than those that do). I tip. I smile. I talk. I drink. I have refined my act without needing to tell any lies or disguise myself. I rarely if ever ask for small comps and I get them. What I have not done is pursue many risk averse indexes or betting camos as I feel they waste a fair advantage. This means I "go with my gut" with 16s v 10 (which just means I usually don't hit as per the index) and do the same with 15 v 10 also out of a feigned fear (big bet out) along with mumbo-jumbo talk about how I know the dealer will bust and I know I will bust. I do the -1 indexes properly too. Anyway, point is, only index play I won't employ is splitting 10s. Occasionally I will employ a small bet camo like leading out a shoe with 2 units.

Ok, here's where the modesty kicks in-- I have a teeeneeee spread. 1-7 units, 5 dollar table, so $5-$35. I Wong in occasionally or side count another table and more importantly I also am Wonging out as appropriate at <-1. I also try to piggyback onto people's refused doubles. I'm playing games with a .49-.29 house advantage and here are my spread details:

TC -1 to .5 = $5
TC .5 to 1 = $10
TC 1 to 2 = $15
TC 2 to 3 = $20
TC 3 to 4 = $25
TC 4 to 5 = $30
TC >5 = $35

Now, I ran an amateur expectation analysis for this and got an hourly (actually /100 hands) of $12.4 (shout at me if this seems way off). Obviously, this might seem silly low to many of you but I've worked shittier jobs for less. I am recently physically disabled in my mid-thirties and never really liked work and I got a beautiful new baby girl to support so the possibility of being my own boss is enticing and I know that I can do more once I build a bankroll. I also know that there is nothing better than a ton of real life practice, which the modesty of this bet structure promotes.

After looking a little closer at things I realized that in three trips a week with long sessions (10hrs+) I could expect to hit $25,000 in a year. This is where alarm bells started going off in my head. That seems like an incredible sum for a smart basic strategy red chipper that whimsically departs from basic strategy in all kinds of ways that benefit him and has an average bet of 12 bucks. So, I've started to rathole if i can even at this level and I'm just wondering, how much heat am I gonna get? Does my game ever end? How much does a casino care about me or the small numbers I put up? What else can I do to camo and minimalize heat? Am I leaving out anything important? Boz, you may have a lot of great input on this; it sounds very similar to your experience playing 6 deckers with minimal heat. Thanks in advance guys; I've learned a wealth more about card counting/AP than I thought I knew already.

I skimmed it. So if I missed something point it out. Based on your betting level, I assume you are using a level 1 count with limited indices. Do not double your bet at 0.5 TC, you are at a disadvantage. This is important because your spread is small and your max bet is tiny. The house edge seems low, so it's safe to raise it when it reaches +1.

You're not going to earn $25,000 with a $35 max bet. I guess if you're putting in 30 hours per week and the house edge really is .29, I'd expect half that. That's off the top of my head with mediocre-to-average penetration; the sim might be correctly done, but you can't expect to perform perfectly like a sim. But as your bankroll climbs, just up your bets. You can make $25K.

Lonewolf is partially right. At this level, you can't afford to use cover or ignore indices. So you should split 10s and everything else, unless there's a strong reason not to do so. But that's mostly a coincidence and he's wrong about almost everything he says about heat. If you don't believe me, look at what the other posters say. Regardless of your bet level, the casino will eventually back you off for if you consistently win. I never ratholed chips at that level, but it's not a bad idea to pocket some greens--and to avoid heat whenever possible. At this level, your heat could depend a lot on how liked you are by the casino staff and by how big they are compared to other casinos in the area. I don't recommend tipping (very much), but be friendly. But don't be so friendly that you think you are friends.

When the count is +6 or higher, which is rare, I'd strongly suggest you put out higher bets than $35.

[moses]

I have a small bankroll that I'm just going to say is non-replenishable and set at $3000. I wish to play with a low ROR and play long sessions. I also wish most to have minimal heat. I have picked two local shops for their light heat, better rules, and better pen. I play 6-deckers. I have befriended as many dealers as I can (many dealers rotate in as pit bosses, and I firmly believe that *some* of the dealers that don't are smarter than those that do). I tip. I smile. I talk. I drink. I have refined my act without needing to tell any lies or disguise myself. I rarely if ever ask for small comps and I get them. What I have not done is pursue many risk averse indexes or betting camos as I feel they waste a fair advantage. This means I "go with my gut" with 16s v 10 (which just means I usually don't hit as per the index) and do the same with 15 v 10 also out of a feigned fear (big bet out) along with mumbo-jumbo talk about how I know the dealer will bust and I know I will bust. I do the -1 indexes properly too. Anyway, point is, only index play I won't employ is splitting 10s. Occasionally I will employ a small bet camo like leading out a shoe with 2 units.

After looking a little closer at things I realized that in three trips a week with long sessions (10hrs+) I could expect to hit $25,000 in a year. This is where alarm bells started going off in my head. That seems like an incredible sum for a smart basic strategy red chipper that whimsically departs from basic strategy in all kinds of ways that benefit him and has an average bet of 12 bucks. So, I've started to rathole if i can even at this level and I'm just wondering, how much heat am I gonna get? Does my game ever end? How much does a casino care about me or the small numbers I put up? What else can I do to camo and minimalize heat? .

IF I had it do to all over again. The sentence underlined above certainly won't hurt your longevity. Some say rathole, others say no. It was told to me, by the guy that 86ed me, the worst thing a player can do is insult the EITS. Ratholing ranks high on that list. I would buy Norms products, practice CV exactly the way I plan to play in the casino. I would bypass the red level altogether and save until my game and wallet was ready for the $25 table.

Turning $3k into $25k in a year seems like a lofty goal. I've always been more concerned about how good of a player can I be vs how much money can I make. I figure they both go hand in hand...and we're playing a game we are not supposed to win.

[LoneWoLF]

IF I had it do to all over again. The sentence underlined above certainly won't hurt your longevity. Some say rathole, others say no. It was told to me, by the guy that 86ed me, the worst thing a player can do is insult the EITS. Ratholing ranks high on that list. I would buy Norms products, practice CV exactly the way I plan to play in the casino. I would bypass the red level altogether and save until my game and wallet was ready for the $25 table.

Turning $3k into $25k in a year seems like a lofty goal. I've always been more concerned about how good of a player can I be vs how much money can I make. I figure they both go hand in hand...and we're playing a game we are not supposed to win.

Funny you say that cause that's what I exactly have done in the past 10 months part time for 360 hours. Turned 4k into 25k. So even better, less than a year

[Villiam]

I skimmed it. So if I missed something point it out. Based on your betting level, I assume you are using a level 1 count with limited indices. Do not double your bet at 0.5 TC, you are at a disadvantage. This is important because your spread is small and your max bet is tiny. The house edge seems low, so it's safe to raise it when it reaches +1.
...
When the count is +6 or higher, which is rare, I'd strongly suggest you put out higher bets than $35.

So I actually indicated I use all indices except splitting tens. I use Hi-Lo. I assumed that at .5 TC I was actually at a very slight adv. due to my use of indices and the additional edge they provide. What's the math on this, and is this misguided?

Also, I know putting out higher bets at +6 would be advantageous but I'm worried about ROR with $3,000 roll. Any math for this?

Boz, your posts are edgy and you have a ton to offer. Appreciate you.

[Norm]

More indices will give you a higher advantage, but most of the good indices don't come into play at TC 0.5.

[Boz]

So I actually indicated I use all indices except splitting tens. I use Hi-Lo. I assumed that at .5 TC I was actually at a very slight adv. due to my use of indices and the additional edge they provide. What's the math on this, and is this misguided?

Also, I know putting out higher bets at +6 would be advantageous but I'm worried about ROR with $3,000 roll. Any math for this?

Boz, your posts are edgy and you have a ton to offer. Appreciate you.

Well, typically you'd estimate that each TC shaves .5 off the house edge...so half a TC is worth .25. But that's an estimate, and in reality, it's not quite so linear. So if you want to know exactly, you need a sim. But keep in mind the count is not equal at all points in the shoe--TC +2 early in the shoe is less advantageous than on the last hand. I use a level 3 count--for all intents and purposes, it has some multi-parameter features. I figure I break even at about .33% house edge at 0.5 TC. At that .29 game, you might be at an advantage at 0.6-0.7 TC midway thru the shoe. But it's so slim, it's not worth an extra $5 if your max bet is only $35.

I just plug in the numbers when I've busted out the BJ gear if I really want to know ROR; it's not something I know how to figure out off hand. I can tell you that you are overbetting your bankroll even with a $35 max bet. But that's OK. I started with a $100 and played a break-even game, and variance caused my BR to (luckily) grow, and I slowly raised my bets until eventually my ROR went from 100% to 0.1%. You have to overbet your bankroll if you want to play without enough money. You don't have to overbet $3000 if you don't want, but it's going to be a slow grind.
This type of play is similar to how I started and is unconventional. Most save up and start with a larger bankroll. For your apparent approach, I strongly encourage ditching the max bet and going with proportional betting. It's more efficient. Your ROR goes down and hourly goes up (if your bets don't change), I believe SCORE suffers (if I remember all that right--some stats become better, some worse--that much I remember for sure). You could drop the each bet by $5, except for the min bet to make it even safer--by eliminating the .5-1 TC bet. Then add an additional $5 for each count above 5. That's just a suggestion, it's not the perfect way or anything.

[Freightman]

Food for thought comments
You are playing shoe games with quite good rules (.49 he) to great rules (.29 he). Since the latter h.e. is very uncommon for a $5 game, it would be helpful for you to confirm the rules. The other primary issue is deck pen. You can make money, though not 25k on both of these games with that spread and deep deck pen. I haven't simmed this, but 25 k is only possible with positive variance.

My long ago bankroll, as I was birthing into counting was a simple, replenish-able $600 of seed money, which went to 4700 in year 1 to 31k in year 2. (I think those were the numbers). I did not have CVCX or cv data in those days. My spread started, as yours from 5-35 to 5-60 and sometimes a brazen 70, but it was a poorly constructed spread, though it was a spread on a decent game with decent rules.

The biggest issue you have to contend with is your limited non rep,enishable bankroll. I would want more details to comment further, though I could ramble on in different directions without.

[Boz]

Since the latter h.e. is very uncommon for a $5 game, it would be helpful for you to confirm the rules.

S17, DOA, RSA, LS. I suspect Michigan's Kewadin casinos. Tho I don't think that's the HE on their DD. And the RSA is actually not RSA. Penetration sucks, but they're a temporary ATM for the small-time grinder.

[Zach Black]

1) No need for any camo with a $35 top bet.
2) It will be a grind with 30 hrs/week. If you don't like work, it will seem exactly like work after you've grinded out a couple hundred hours.
3) If you get deep pen, and see a true count of 10, don't limit your top bet to 35. Keep ramping with the advantage. I doubt a 5-70 spread will generate much more than a yawn from the pit.
4) With EV of $12/hr you can't afford to tip. If you have a nice win in a shoe say $500 , dealers aren't going to be happy with $5 tip. There is no way to afford to keep dealers happy.
5) Playing 30 hours a week you will need to be pleasant and maintain good relations. I had a pit boss joke with me about working in casino that I played at maybe 10 hrs/week. (over 3 different shifts)
6) With your disability maybe some training is available for a job suited to your remaining skills. Your attack on the casino will not net much more than a minimum wage job if your lucky, It would be better to build a 10 or 20 k bankroll and avoid the exposure until you can place higher bets.

[Boz]

1) No need for any camo with a $35 top bet.
2) It will be a grind with 30 hrs/week. If you don't like work, it will seem exactly like work after you've grinded out a couple hundred hours.
3) If you get deep pen, and see a true count of 10, don't limit your top bet to 35. Keep ramping with the advantage. I doubt a 5-70 spread will generate much more than a yawn from the pit.
4) With EV of $12/hr you can't afford to tip. If you have a nice win in a shoe say $500 , dealers aren't going to be happy with $5 tip. There is no way to afford to keep dealers happy.
5) Playing 30 hours a week you will need to be pleasant and maintain good relations. I had a pit boss joke with me about working in casino that I played at maybe 10 hrs/week. (over 3 different shifts)
6) With your disability maybe some training is available for a job suited to your remaining skills. Your attack on the casino will not net much more than a minimum wage job if your lucky, It would be better to build a 10 or 20 k bankroll and avoid the exposure until you can place higher bets.

1) Agree
2) Partially Agree--It won't feel like work if you enjoy it.
3) Agree
4) Partially Agree--Outside of major gambling locales, a $5 tip may be appreciated. Zero tips will not be appreciated everywhere.
5) Agree
6) Partially Disagree--No one here is qualified to act as a the OP's social worker; and certainly one can take the unconventional route and choose to build their BR through APing if they so desire.