I need help with the math

[Tarzan]

Both Boz and RollingStoned have valid points when you think about it. A bird flies without you having to explain the Bernoulli principle to it and if you did explain the Bernoulli principle to it, the bird would not understand it and it would have no effect upon their flying abilities one way or the other. Understanding the math behind something enhances your problem solving skills and opens you up for more easily expanding your knowledge base.

Here's where the issue begins. Understanding the math behind a function is often many times more difficult than understanding how to perform the function (which we discovered while trying to explain the Bernoulli principle to a bird). In the time you took to try to understand the mathematical aspects of the function you could have learned many more functions that have practical application value. The moral of the story is to learn all of the functions first and foremost with learning the mathematical aspects of it as secondary. Never stop studying, learning and training. Understanding the math behind the method allows you to make your own interpretations and expand on known and established concepts but to attempt to understand the math behind every concept that you learn as you go is the equivalent of dragging a ball and chain along as you try to learn known and established concepts. You have to walk before you can run. Don't allow the math involved to hold you back from learning known and established concepts before doubling back to begin thinking about the math and theory behind these known and established concepts is all.

When someone questions why do you hit A,7vsT and you say, "Because that's the basic strategy and the correct play about 90% of the time" and they go on to argue the issue and say it doesn't make sense to them and they would need to understand the math of it. You go into a lengthy and precise description of the math and at the end of it all they say, "Well, it still just doesn't feel right to hit A,7vsT!" You walk away shaking your head and disgusted.

This is a bird that not only has no concept of the Bernoulli principle but it can not fly either. Someone tosses a chicken up onto the stage at an Alice Cooper concert. He picks it up and tosses it into the air back over the audience, assuming it's going to fly away (because if you drink enough Budweiser beer you can forget that chickens don't fly all that well), the audience rips it up into pieces with some of the various pieces landing back up on the stage...

[Norm]

Someone tosses a chicken up onto the stage at an Alice Cooper concert. He picks it up and tosses it into the air back over the audience, assuming it's going to fly away (because if you drink enough Budweiser beer you can forget that chickens don't fly all that well), the audience rips it up into pieces with some of the various pieces landing back up on the stage...

I always knew somehow that incident would become instructive of something. Now,what's the math principle behind the bit with Ozzie and the bat?

[Tarzan]

I always knew somehow that incident would become instructive of something. Now,what's the math principle behind the bit with Ozzie and the bat?

It was only a matter of time, right?! I thought it a cool way to point out how the A,7vsT guy could possibly have the same fate as that chicken.

[Freightman]

It was only a matter of time, right?! I thought it a cool way to point out how the A,7vsT guy could possibly have the same fate as that chicken.

Was it the mid 70's - WKRP in Cincinnatti
LES NESSMAN, winner of the Silver Sow award, dropped a pile of turkeys onto a crowd, only to be told later that "turkeys don't fly".

[Freightman]

Was it the mid 70's - WKRP in Cincinnatti
LES NESSMAN, winner of the Silver Sow award, dropped a pile of turkeys onto a crowd, only to be told later that "turkeys don't fly".

Absolutely couldn't resist
https://youtu.be/p00nBSNIPwg
https://youtu.be/4FXSnoy71Q4

[Redwing41]

If there are multiple players, you have no idea what chance the dealer has of busting. Most useless stat in BJ.

In any case, you have to play first. If you bust, you lose. It won't matter what the dealer does.

The dealer should have the same odds of busting regardless of multiple players when showing X card. Unless im missing something?

[Norm]

If there is one player, and that player busts or gets a BJ, the dealer doesn't have to play and can't bust. If there are six players, all six would have to bust and/or get BJ's for the dealer not to have a chance of busting.

[MJGolf]

I think the OP was just trying to understand basic strategy, not implement a garbage system. I used to split 10s as a kid because it was basic strategy to double the 10, and no one could explain, or actually knew why a 20 is better than capping my bet on a 10.

Well in a way, you weren't inherently wrong here. You actually DO win more hands than you lose splitting 10's v. almost any hand except 10 or A dealer upcard (or more accurately have a positive expectation) BUT you win a bit more (probably more slight than people realize) by standing. For example, .69 positive expectation splitting 10's v. dealer 6 as opposed to .70 positive expectation v. standing dealer 6. Likewise .63 positive expectation v dealer 5 upcard as opposed to .67 standing against the dealer 6.

I'm sure Don will have more exact numbers but sometimes understanding the math can help as you learn. What I have always wondered is with these numbers/positive expectation, why does everyone get SO upset when 10's ARE split.............LOL Sometimes PERCEPTION MIGHT be worse than actuality. (basic strategy.........not counting)

Source: Blackjack, A Champion's Guide

[RS]

Good example, MJGolf. Now I know if I do split tens, I'm giving up 1% or some tiny portion of the bet. Maybe I'll use it as cheap cover....maybe if dealer f*cks up, I know not to get my panties in a bunch (say, they thought I was splitting or something?) since I'm losing a small percent. Small tidbits, here and there, makes you a better player. Maybe it's the math you learn or something small you read like this. DonS wrote something in his book like, "If you never hit your 16vT, ever, you give up like 2c/hour". Same thing with even money vs Ace, always.

Could probably have all sorts of whacky plays, give up a very small amount in EV, but always look like a crazy player who's so idiotic there's "no way!" he's a counter or has an idea what he's doing.

[DSchles]

"I'm sure Don will have more exact numbers."

Unfortunately, your split numbers are off. For 6D vs. 5, 67% to stand vs. 51% to split (just once). For 6D vs. 6, 70% to stand vs. 57% to split.

Don

[DSchles]

"Good example, MJGolf. Now I know if I do split tens, I'm giving up 1% or some tiny portion of the bet."

Sorry, just not true.

Don

[MJGolf]

Don:

Not comparing your math to someone else's to start an argument but always understood that splitting 10's against a 5 or 6 was STILL positive expectation, even though standing was the "better" choice. So didn't see why everyone (ploppies) got so upset when someone "split 10's" at the table.

Now on page 69 in Blackjack a Champion's Guide (by De Toffoli and Bonaldi), two math folks and Bonaldi did her dissertation on the basic strategy BJ, they state expectation of splitting 10's v 6 is .70 for standing. Positive expectation .69 for splitting the 10's. In Braun's book, however he states that splitting has a positive expectation, you win more hands 64 of 100. But that standing you win 85 out of 100 hands.

So why the discrepancy? Or can you flesh out the numbers more? The real point I was trying to make was that splitting wasn't as bad as people thought "off the cuff" like Boz said he thought "as a kid".

She was the math major; you are a math genius. They state: "An incorrect choice can in some cases lead to a very limited error (against a dealer's 6 for example, the average win is 0.69 if you split and 0.70 if not)"

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"Braun's book, however he states that splitting has a positive expectation, you win more hands 64 of 100. But that standing you win 85 out of 100 hands."

Be careful here, as splitting DECREASES your chances of winning
while putting DOUBLE money at risk for a much lower e.v.