As a C.P.A. you should know better than to throw numbers around with insouciance.Originally Posted by Bigdaddy
That 90% could be far far lower for most recreational card counters, such as yourself.
Yea well sorry... I've been learning/playing counting for a little over a month. Not years prob like you. I do get the basic concepts but I'm unable to correlate many specifics at this point.
I just figured I would be seeing a positive return after 4000 hands but apparently not. Now i know that and how to play a much more favorable game.
Please excuse my "insouciance" (lighthearted unconcern, nonchalance). My clients love it when I insouciantly inform them that they owe $1M with their tax return on April 15.
Anyway, my point was more along the lines of an example to illustrate a point. The point being that a competent player (recreational or otherwise) that logs enough rounds in a year to be around 1 N0 for his chosen game has a very significant chance of being ahead.
None of this makes a whole lot of sense to me. As I understand it, none of this was real. It was just a simulation. Why would you simulate a 1-4 spread? The only reason someone would limit the spread like that is because they're afraid of losing money. So why did you never lower your minimum bet and wong? If the only game in your area is a $25 min shoe with 2 decks cut out and mediocre rules, don't bother playing it.
Only with highly technical knowledge of the machine model that has absolutely nothing to do with counting, penetration (which you apparently claim is always less than .5, but is actually closer to less than 5%), or anything else to do with this thread.
I did the 1-4 spread because this is how I wanted to start out in the real casino to get practice and comfortable with it. Also, I noticed I was losing money at counts +4 or more so I decided to use a flat bet of $100 of counts +2 or more. Obviously not a winning strategy. I think I may have used a S17 DAS scenario to get my EV of $16/hr. Who knows.
I did try to simulate wonging as best as I could. I would just deal out the rest of a shoe or just reshuffle if the count was excessively negative. I'm not sure how else to wong on CVBJ. The $25 is the common table minimum in my area and I've noticed that in most other places the tables with this minimum are the least crowded tables so I figured this would be the best way to get the fewest players at the table to make it easier on me counting.
A teeny-bopper (I borrowed that from porn) doesn't belong at a $25 table. Max betting at +2 is not close to optimal. I have a feeling you're going about all of this the wrong way. Have you mastered basic strategy to the point where you know every play instantly? Have you done the same with, at the bare minimum, the top 18 indices--but hopefully double that? Are you operating with at least $25,000, which is a still a risky bankroll to beat $25 6D? Do you have successful AP experience in a casino environment? If you said no to any question, lower your minimum. If crowds are a problem, play during off-peak hours. The only thing to avoid is 6:5.
Last edited by Boz; 05-29-2016 at 08:48 PM.
Has not a thing to do with porn. It is a term from the early 1960's.
It described a very young person dressing and acting like a "hippy."
Warning: Hyperbolic assertion. Unwarranted.
There are many unplayable games ...
with restricted doubles or very poor penetration.
Yes, I have mastered basic strategy to the point where I don't have to think about what to do each hand in the sim or the real casino. I've had that down for a few months now. Using the top 18 indices, I def still have to think about it on some hands and I'm still making the occasional error playing on the sim. And no, the max bankroll I would willing to use is $10000. I do not think I have the balls yet to incur the loss of thousands of dollars in a setting.
Maybe when I completely master my strategy, start winning and feel 100% comfortable I'll start putting that kind of money down. That's why I thought betting a max of $100 might reduce my risk a little but it sounds like you have to go all out if you wanna make money.
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