An open message to the counter I saw Monday night

[Avincow]

And if I play off someone's hand and we get a blackjack they keep the bonus and if they someone plays off my hand I keep the bonus. That's only fair and I've never had a problem doing it in Missouri

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Okay let me get this straight. People bet on you, and they let you keep the 'bonus' in blackjack? In this case, this is very good for you. If they match your bet, you are getting Blackjack pays 2 to 1 and you have 2% advantage right off the top. How often are people betting on you and for how much typically?

[Barney112]

Hold on now only a few times and I did the same a time or two this is not done much in my area .. I'm talking about dumping shoes. We're the count is not in positive numbers surely with a man as good as you are with percentages have seen plenty of shoes that were dump trucks and in the minuses when it come to counts I'm not trying to make this a big deal I'm just saying it is worth getting in if the Dealer's bust in every hand if a player will let you in why not give up the bonus if there is a bonus most the time it's in the negative

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[Barney112]

You need to keep it simple. Use HiLo. Get Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong. Stop betting on people and allowing them to keep the 'bonus'. How did you even come up with that? I have never seen anybody do this. As ppl before me have said, what you are doing is terrible. You are at 2%+ disadvantage. Either play 1 hand or 2 hands YOURSELF!

Hold on now only a few times and I did the same a time or two this is not done much in my area .. I'm talking about dumping shoes. We're the count is not in positive numbers surely with a man as good as you are with percentages have seen plenty of shoes that were dump trucks and in the minuses when it come to counts I'm not trying to make this a big deal I'm just saying it is worth getting in if the Dealer's bust in every hand if a player will let you in why not give up the bonus if there is a bonus most the time it's in the negative

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Well, OK, if you acknowledge you're not beating the house, I guess you can do whatever you want at the table...feel free to come to my table and give me your BJ bonuses.

My count is custom and I don't reveal it publicly. It's similar in ways to Wong Halves. If you are asking for yourself, I always recommend Hi-Lo.

Thank you I will take your advice I appreciate it very much you have a nice weekend and a safe one my friend

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[Boz]

Hold on now only a few times and I did the same a time or two this is not done much in my area .. I'm talking about dumping shoes. We're the count is not in positive numbers surely with a man as good as you are with percentages have seen plenty of shoes that were dump trucks and in the minuses when it come to counts I'm not trying to make this a big deal I'm just saying it is worth getting in if the Dealer's bust in every hand if a player will let you in why not give up the bonus if there is a bonus most the time it's in the negative

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There's no such thing as a 'dump trunk' except in hind sight. If you could predict that the shoe would continue to perform poorly, then why would you willingly play? There's also no way to know the 'dealer will continue to bust.' The only thing that matters is the math.
Now that we've established there's no such thing as a dump-trunk shoe, let's briefly talk about negative counts. If you know the count is negative, you don't want to play. You don't jump into a shoe when it's negative. And you don't ask someone if you can put more money on their spot when it's negative. It makes no sense. You bet as little as possible or nothing at all. Not MORE.
Lastly, I hope, you don't give up your bonus. It doesn't matter the count. It doesn't matter if the table is full and the dealer just busted 10 times in a row. If this is your strategy, then blackjack is not even close to the best game in a major casino. If you're just a ploppy, do whatever you want. But you definitely do not appear to be close to having an edge over the house.

[Barney112]

Sure as a good counter that I believe you are no in theory you would not want to be in on this kind of game 4 the edge is not in your favor. but I was married to a dealer 15 years... And I guarantee you there is shoes that line up that are in the negative and the Dealer will bust a lot what them shoes I best friend remember her telling me about that I wish I would have been on before the shufflers time and it was hand Shuffle one man got off with 30-something thousand and the other took 20 I do believe it was dumping. now Jerry Patterson I'm sure you've heard him come out with a Target 21 back in the 80 and 90s now a lot a world-renowned card counters did not believe and his systems. but trust me after reading his book and looking back and looking at shoes I've been on in the past where I would not bet up because it was in the negative and everybody at the table that don't know how to count anything is walking away with good chunks of money and I'm sitting there with my lousy little bit of money because I wouldn't get up on it because it count told me not to. and no shape AR forum and my a great card counter as I believe you probably are but I'm learning and I have looked at these other options and have made good money when I have recognized this and I have took action accordingly. I've learned in Uston Advanced plus minus. Probably not the best count for me to be using there's a lot of numbers that's why I asked you your count. And I definitely don't want to disrespect you because I believe even though I don't know you but reading your post back to me with the percentages you are a man with great skill but anything we can learn to beat the casino it's okay by me and I'm sure it's okay with you so I hope to learn from you but let's keep an open mind how many times have you been at a table and the count is the down negative territory and you walk away with a little bit of money and the dealer was busting are making very poor hands and the table was when I left and right I'm sure there was a quite a few of times this has happened to you. so if you would have recognized what was happening why not up your bet what the strict stop loss in place of course because no you don't know when it's over expecially shufflers but it's still can make you a lot of money if you keep an open mind and you look at the situation that you could be in I'm sure now the next time you're at a table in the minus and the dealers busting you will remember this talk and hopefully you will bet up.........

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[Three]

Barney. Simply because in retrospect you can see you should have bet differently if you knew the future doesn't make it an advantage to bet poorly because you think it will repeat. Being able to turn a profit in the long run because you don't need a crustal ball to know how much to bet or how to play hands is being an AP. Retrospectively examining outcomes with no context of why things happened the way they did and trying to use them to predict the future is voodoo. Do you pull the guts out of a chicken and then compare them to a chart of how your results were the last time the guts looked like that? Individually losses and wins are unpredictable so guessing that you will win or lose is futile no matter what it is based on. If you can define a situation by deck composition and bet each such deck composition based on a long run average of expectation and variance things will still be unpredictable in the short term but will approach expectation after enough bets are made for that situation.

[Boz]

but I was married to a dealer 15 years... And I guarantee you there is shoes that line up that are in the negative and the Dealer will bust a lot

Most dealers act like they know how to play blackjack and even advise ploppies at the table, but they almost all suck at blackjack and don't know what they're talking about. I've also never seen a woman blackjack AP in real life, and I don't think there are any here. I'm not saying your wife or former wife wasn't good at blackjack...I'm saying it's very likely she was no expert.
Yes, I've played in negative shoes where the dealer busted a lot and I won most of my hands. This happens slightly less often than the dealer barely busts and I lose most of my hands. Can't pinpoint your logic error, but I'd guess it's the popular selective memory. An isolated outcome looked at in hindsight is completely irrelevant to predicting future probability.

Jerry Patterson I'm sure you've heard him come out with a Target 21

To the best of my knowledge, no contemporary AP considers him a respectable or credible source of reference material. And it's obvious to any AP that his system does not work.

you are a man with great skill...I'm sure now the next time you're at a table in the minus and the dealers busting you will remember this talk

I know. But thanks.

I will definitely not consider employing voodoo while playing.

[Barney112]

Your right dealers act like they are expert and don't know what's going they're talking about I agree with this 100% And she was no expert by no means she just noticed shoes that couldn't hardly be turned around very few but you've seen him and I have seen them too but this is the old days when they Shuffle. By hand shufflers make it a lot harder for this to happen it rarely happens. I just happened to be on one the other night and the count was so negative I never bet up and win almost every hand I should have recognized what was happening but I was scared to bet into it.it was really negative in a double deck and I pulled 10 units out of the shoe one on one . but you have a nice and safe weekend and Holiday I would like to talk to you sometime if you would my email is spraymaster 1962 @yahoo.com just say its boz and I will no it's you I'm sure you could teach me a lot and I'm willing to learn anything I can learn the more the better thank you

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[stopgambling]

You get to win as the shoes is going toward negatives
because high cards are coming out but you can not predict that . If i knoew high cards were coming out i would bet into a negative shoe but the probability of that happening is lower than a shoe with raising count , you dig?

[RCJH]

Barney--couple thoughts...

If you flip a coin, it is 50-50 that it will be heads.

If you flip a coin 10 times and it's heads each time, there's still a 50-50 chance that the next flip will be tails. The past has no influence on future probability. We've all looked at sessions and hands in retrospect, and said "If only I..." It's a big positive count, and you stand on that 16. Next card up is a 5, and you silently swear. That doesn't mean standing was the wrong play. It just didn't work out.

I've won a lot of money in negative counts; once I had some heat and left a $50 bet riding for the last few hands. And I won every single one. That doesn't mean my play was optimal, and I certainly wouldn't want do it again, but in retrospect a bystander could say that was a great player.

I've also lost money in positive counts. But I try to play optimally, and in the long run I've come out ahead. I have just as many big win stories, but I play with my head and not my gut

Sometimes the deck composition has more to do with you and the dealer busting than the count. There's absolutely no truth to cards "running" one way or another.


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[Boz]

you dig?

LOL, no. You don't want to bet into a shoe with a rising count. That means a bunch of low cards are coming out. The running count (not to be confused with true count, which tends to remain static) in a negative shoe tends to rise (towards zero) as you get deeper. I think the OP is talking about false counts, but not recognizing people can't see into the future. I think you've got most of it right, but something's not quite right.

[Boz]

It's a big positive count, and you stand on that 16. Next card up is a 5, and you silently swear.

Speak for yourself. The deaf old lady across table hears me cussing. Don't need the ploppies confusing silence for me not noticing and wanting them to tell me.

[Frank Galvin]

LOL, no. You don't want to bet into a shoe with a rising count. That means a bunch of low cards are coming out. The running count (not to be confused with true count, which tends to remain static) in a negative shoe tends to rise (towards zero) as you get deeper. I think the OP is talking about false counts, but not recognizing people can't see into the future. I think you've got most of it right, but something's not quite right.

Boz, my apologies in advance, as I am not trying to contradict you, but rather, seek clarification.

Did you mean that low cards already came out, rather than are coming out?

As we know, if low cards have been dealt, then the RC should be in a higher positive territory, since there are now more high cards remaining (no matter you preferred counting system) in the shoe, than low cards. Consequently, the probability is higher that you will see more high cards than low cards in the next round(s).

If so, then that would be consistent with your later comment that the RC tends to rise when you are in a negative shoe, being a direct consequence of more high cards having already been dealt and more low cards remaining, which when those surplus low cards get dealt, that fact will cause the RC to head in a positive count direction.