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  1. #51


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    "Well, yeah...I'm about 250k behind EV for 2016. 6M coin-in and no royal...."

    And to this we respond..."holy shit!!!"
    That is about -4.1% down. As ZMF pointed out, this is about normal when you have not hit the "big one". Royal Flush shows up statistically about every 20,000 rounds. If on a $5 JOB he has in over 240,000 rounds.....with no royal????? Way....way off the SD chart so he must be playing much larger than $5 perhaps $100.

    For whatever it is worth, playing this machine game is damn boring!
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  2. #52


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    I suspect an average return would seldom exceed (perhaps) 93% to 95%
    If you play perfect strategy and do not hit Royal it is less than a 4% loss, if my memory serves me. Few people play perfect strategy.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #53


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    Depends how much VP you play, as well as game type (JOB, DW, DDB, JW, etc.) and how many lines you play (single, 3/5/10 play, 50 or 100 play). On JOB, you should hit a RF every 40K hands, or about every 40 hours (at 1000 HPH). But if you play 10-play, your variance goes way down and now you're looking at a RF cycle of about 5 hours (800 HPH on 10-play). And if you're playing something that is actually playable, you shouldn't be worrying about running bad on RF's, since your edge should well exceed the RF payback (about 2%). When you hit a RF, it feels more like bonus money, not "Now I'm finally ahead!" or "I'm back to even or -0.5%".

    Being at 6M coin in, being down $250K of EV, given the "and still no royal" comment, I'd have to guess he's playing $25 DDB AND running bad on bonus 4oaks.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  4. #54


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    If you play perfect strategy and do not hit Royal it is less than a 4% loss, if my memory serves me. Few people play perfect strategy.
    It's worth about 2% in Deuces. 4-of-a-kind is worth about 1/3, and casinos are in the habit of shaving 20% off from the full-pay on the 4-of-a-kind--6-7% total. It'd be much better to have no royal and play an otherwise full-pay machine than to play most VP games offered. This I did not know until I learned the hard way, as I was saying. I was always looking for the full-pay Royal to waste my time with, which was unimportant.
    Last edited by Boz; 05-13-2016 at 01:27 PM.

  5. #55


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    QUOTE=ZenMaster_Flash;190885]The "problem" with V.P. is that the "return" (naturally) includes your hitting a Royal Flush.

    As you are actually playing short-term you'll be extremely unlikely to see that Jackpot.

    Your V.P. may have a "return" of 99.x % BUT if you stipulate that a Royal Flush will not

    be seen, the "return" worsens considerably -- to the point where I'd rather shoot craps.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    Yes ZMF, your are on point. Ripping off a post from the GC site, the "Chairman" states (nonchalantly):

    "Well, yeah...I'm about 250k behind EV for 2016. 6M coin-in and no royal...."

    And to this we respond..."holy shit!!!"
    Bigdaddy, Let me give you another theory on chairman's post on green chip. ZMF'S above quote is accurate about when a player not hitting a royal worsens the return considerably. However ZMF is using a return for a machine of 99.x % that return percentage may well apply to most top notch video poker players, but does not apply to the Chairman! Simply put there is a lot more going on here. Chairman would not even look at any game paying at a rate of 99.x % return by itself, without something else involved. How do I know this, as I do not personally know Chairman, is because I have been reading his post for almost two decades, and I can assure you he is a true professional Advantage Player.

    First he stated the fact as you say nonchalantly because it was just a insignificant true fact. I am sure he was playing to a almost 0 % ror. Plus that 250k EV loss, most likely represented a rather small actual cash investment loss to the player, in that one endeavor. I am sure he also had other things going on.
    Last edited by BoSox; 05-13-2016 at 06:40 PM.

  6. #56


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Bigdaddy, Let me give you another theory on chairman's post on green chip. ZMF'S above quote is accurate about when a player not hitting a royal worsens the return considerably. However ZMF is using a return for a machine of 99.x % that return percentage may well apply to most top notch video poker players, but does not apply to the Chairman! Simply put there is a lot more going on here. Chairman would not even look at any game paying at a rate of 99.x % return by itself, without something else involved. How do I know this, as I do not personally know Chairman, is because I have been reading his post for almost two decades, and I can assure you he is a true professional Advantage Player.

    First he stated the fact as you say nonchalantly because it was just a insignificant true fact. I am sure he was playing to a almost 0 % ror. Plus that 250k EV loss, most likely represented a rather small actual cash investment loss to the player, in that one endeavor. I am sure he also had other things going on.
    I hear ya...I'm just fascinated by that level of play.....a true pro....

  7. #57
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I don't play a lot of VP as it is hard to get an edge on the game. I do play it whenever I can with an edge. I have hit one royal on a 1 line machine and 1 royal on the first line of a multi-line machine which right or wrong I equate to hitting a royal on a 1 line machine. For the game I usually play, JOB, I expect to hit a royal about every 40390 hands. I am sure I have played many many time that. The thing about rare events like this is some will never hit them while others will hit them much more often than expected. That is the nature of rare events. I have no clue when you are expected to approach expectation on the royal payout, like a royal n0, but it is much much much higher than 40390 hands.

    I play a game with a side bet where there is a max payout that occurs about once every 347,000 bets made and I have hit it more than once. Most players never hit this payout in their lifetime. I have never encounter another player that has hit it. At 1000 hours per year and the typical game speed it would take about 6 years to get to where you have played the 347,000 hands. I hit mine inside of 6 months of play. This is the nature of rare events. Some are going to get way more than their share of the payouts and many others will languish never hitting it so things will balance out to expectation in all players in aggregate.

    Assuming you are not going to hit the payout is poor stats but a reasonable assumption in the short run.

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