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  1. #41


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    Well, maybe I've made it so it is useless like a self-fulling prophecy. Maybe others have worked into their game. Can't really hurt your game to closely monitor EV, but sitting on my ass and wasting time is something I'd rather do than sitting on my ass boring myself to tears.

  2. #42
    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    I'd rather do than sitting on my ass boring myself to tears.
    That's why I don't play video poker but do keep up with past stats. Different strokes for different folks.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

  3. #43


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    I hear ya. Video poker makes me contemplate suicide as the more entertaining route. Actually, I've used video poker to kill time while wonging. But I'm not an AP vid poker guy. I learned the hard way what payouts were good. I had memorized a pretty good break even strategy on deuces wild, so I thought. Saw some results that didn't make any sense. Royal Flush doesn't matter, 4-of-a-kind payout is what is important. At least I'm wary and more respectful of video poker now.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
    "Royal Flush doesn't matter, 4-of-a-kind payout is what is important."
    The "problem" with V.P. is that the "return" (naturally) includes your hitting a Royal Flush.

    As you are actually playing short-term you'll be extremely unlikely to see that Jackpot.

    Your V.P. may have a "return" of 99.x % BUT if you stipulate that a Royal Flush will not

    be seen, the "return" worsens considerably -- to the point where I'd rather shoot craps.


  5. #45


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    BUT if you stipulate that a Royal Flush will not

    be seen, the "return" worsens considerably -- to the point where I'd rather shoot craps.
    You are correct unless you are playing to the law of large number. Then if you have an organized means of including casino free play offers in your game. Then you can turn this into a positive EV.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  6. #46
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    I hold that if all the VP you are likely to play this year is a few dozen hours,
    your (realistic) chance of a big (and taxable) event is certainly very remote.
    While I have no actual return percentages pertaining to ANY of the VP variants,
    I suspect an average return would seldom exceed (perhaps) 93% to 95%


  7. #47


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    While short term results can clearly be in the ranges ZMF refers to the long term can be positive.

    Here are actual results for a 12 month period (2013-2014) for a team that had VP as one of several methods of attack. I would add that there were some offers available that we did not cash due to the logistics of collecting them. Very labor intensive event.

    Note that our play for coin in was -.50%, very, very close to the expected results for the game played. End results show we were up 1.7% on almost 4.5 million in coin in action (after all expenses including the tax liabilities that go with W2G for large payouts). All the variance with this play is found in the coin in play but was easily outrun by the back end offers. Logistical nightmare to manage. Offer systems, while still vulnerable, have tightened up since this.

    egaming.JPG
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  8. #48
    Senior Member MJGolf's Avatar
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    Stealth.....how do you put a value on the actual "redeemed offers". Cash back is obvious. Free play is easier to value, though at a discounted rate to actual cash. But were you also valuing the offers that were comps? As in meals, rooms, etc? How do you value these in a team situation to "distribute" back to the team?
    "Women and cats will do as they please, and Men and dogs should just relax and get used to the idea" --- Robert A. Heinlein

  9. #49


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    QUOTE=ZenMaster_Flash;190885]The "problem" with V.P. is that the "return" (naturally) includes your hitting a Royal Flush.

    As you are actually playing short-term you'll be extremely unlikely to see that Jackpot.

    Your V.P. may have a "return" of 99.x % BUT if you stipulate that a Royal Flush will not

    be seen, the "return" worsens considerably -- to the point where I'd rather shoot craps.
    [/QUOTE]

    Yes ZMF, your are on point. Ripping off a post from the GC site, the "Chairman" states (nonchalantly):

    "Well, yeah...I'm about 250k behind EV for 2016. 6M coin-in and no royal...."

    And to this we respond..."holy shit!!!"

  10. #50


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    Quote Originally Posted by MJGolf View Post
    Stealth.....how do you put a value on the actual "redeemed offers". Cash back is obvious. Free play is easier to value, though at a discounted rate to actual cash. But were you also valuing the offers that were comps? As in meals, rooms, etc? How do you value these in a team situation to "distribute" back to the team?
    We didn't "put" a value on them, that is the actual amount we received when we cashed them out. Cashing out a free play offer required us to play through the offer amount before we could cash it out, the redeemed amount are the results of that play. All of our players that did E-Gaming were certified at a very high level of proficiency.

    We had exceptions that AP's could earn EV with, for example, a free play for a table games we would give the AP 50% of the free play in EV. The actual results of the play went to the bankroll. A dealer/cashier error was awarded EV at 100%. etc, etc.

    We had EV values for various activities of VP that were earned by the AP. Too complex to deal with here. We had EV for all games we played and "E-Gaming", as we called it, was the most complex. We didn't just play VP in the electronic games, there were some others.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

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