It occurs to me that ...

[Boz]

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just so that's clear. I respect you have a differing viewpoint.

I know I'm above EV because my actual results are higher than expected. Before I approach the game, I know what my theo EV is supposed to be. Practical counting does not reflect the theory. If you've ever been caught counting by a failed middle-aged counter gone dealer, you're aware of this phenomenon. Except, it may act in reverse. You make it sound like tracking EV is nothing more than comparing a sim to your results. I don't track EV, so I'm no expert, but I thought it was a lot more involved--and a lot more pointless than that.

I don't really think it's a misconception that you need a billion hands to reach your theo EV. You have to reach N-zero, whatever that is, which occurs after seventy trillion hands. It must be accomplished in one session, and the time limit is 2 hours.

When I have a trip that doesn't cover expenses, I do think it was worse than a waste of time. Your just using gambler's fallacy to justify a loss. Your EV isn't going to even out after you lost. That would mean your EV is higher on the next trip than it was on the last trip. But its not, it's the same. I get what you're saying, that it tends to normalize over time. But we're not living in a sim.

[Three]

When I have a trip that doesn't cover expenses, I do think it was worse than a waste of time. Your just using gambler's fallacy to justify a loss. Your EV isn't going to even out after you lost. That would mean your EV is higher on the next trip than it was on the last trip. But its not, it's the same. I get what you're saying, that it tends to normalize over time. But we're not living in a sim.

2 things are both true:
1) your EV moving forward after the loss is the same.
2) In the long run you will approach EV including the loss you just incurred.

You might ask how can both be true. The reason is after you play enough rounds for either to be expected to approach EV the difference between the 2 will be insignificant. You are right expecting things to approach expectation indicates you are now more likely to win is a fallacy. But your logic would also suggest if you have a severe downswing you shouldn't expect to approach EV in the long run which is a fallacy as well. The long run will include lots of bad runs some of which will be quite severe. Just because you have one doesn't mean the long run has changed.