Quote Originally Posted by Boz View Post
Well, I'd think so! And it's impossible to track each hand without some sort of illegal device, so you're guestimating. I think it's absolutely useless and a giant waste of time.
Tracking your EXACT EV may be difficult, but it's still important to track. Otherwise, how will you know if your falling slightly short or EXTREMELY short of your target???

Actual results can be very misleading, especially to new players that don't understand the concept of EV or use the aid of software to give them a realistic idea of what their hourly expectation "should" be. For many new players, big losing streaks may totally discourage them completely; where as a few big winning sessions may empower them to bet foolishly and over-bet their BR as a result of being too overly confident. Winning $3,000 in a single session shouldn't allow you to over-estimate your blackjack skills, just as much as losing $3,000 should allow you to underestimate them too (as long as you're playing "correctly").

I know for a fact that I don't track my EV 100% correctly, but if I fall anywhere between 70% and 80% of my "projected simmed EV", then I know I'm on the right track. I give myself that wiggle room to make room for counting/betting errors, cover plays, betting cover, over-estimation of rounds played per hour, etc.

I suppose if you're playing recreationally, then I can understand the disinterest in tracking EV, but I certainly don't do it because I consider myself a stats junky by any means. I track EV (the best I can) because I treat blackjack like a business. Blackjack is an income supplement, so I try to stay on top of the stats as much as I can. I dread tracking the EV though. It's the least exciting part about this venture, but I do it anyway, as I feel it's necessary to any serious AP. Saying that tracking EV is "absolutely useless and a giant waste of time" is like saying a business owner shouldn't keep good P&L records, because it's a waste of time. That doesn't make sense...