Isn't getting a blackjack or winning a double like El Nino? They can predict when El Nino is going to happen. They use anomaly indices. Forget careers or hobbies or joy. How many people has variance ruined? Sounds like El Nino to me. Why is gambler's fallacy the only thing that applies to believing your due for a win, or conversely, a loss? You can plateau for weeks at a time, never being up or down more than a thousand. Then in one week, you're up $7000 after 3 days and you lose $6000 in the next four, without changing a thing. Why is it possible to predict the weather and not blackjack? They're both deterministic.
Aren't there any warning signs of a false count, whether positive or negative? If all we have are 8's left in the deck, our count is 0 and our advantage is 100%. But instead of borrowing $1,000,000 to place a bet, we may have already wonged out. Obviously, we can't memorize the deck composition. But why no anomaly index? The BC of our count is 99%. But if a computer were placing bets for us and tracking deck composition with the perfect count, it would know to bet all of our money on that hand. It's BC is 97%. Why? Because that's what the BC model yields.
Have you ever seen an anomaly, aside from extreme variance? If you use a multi-parameter count maybe you have. If you track aces, you know there's going to be an ace on your 11, you feel it's more likely than usual you will see an Ace on your 11...and you get more Aces than usual. But using multi-parameter indices offers essentially no gain. Isn't there something more useful we can do with the information, like predicting the loss?
When you have a mega high count, it probably started early, and a bunch of low cards came out at once. Isn't that unlikely? Do we really assume a uniform distribution when the first 52 cards are 70% low? Isn't there a certain probability that another clump exists? Isn't there a decent sized chance it's multiple, weaker clumps? That it's behind the cut card? Isn't there a way to ameliorate false counts--through anomaly indices?
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