He said - 5 cards per deck - that's not chump change - explains a few things.Originally Posted by Bodarc
If you can get the actual cards used in the casino you play in it possibly helps. There are or can be slight differences in thickness. If in Vegas, go to that "World's Biggest Gift Shop" at the corner of Las Vegas Blvd. and Sahara and they have a section with used cards from every casino in Vegas and a little beyond even. If in Atlantic City, you can also obtain specific cards for the casino you are playing in simply by asking for them or buying them (with a shaved corner or a hole in the middle to prevent evil doers from evil doings) in the gift shop. It's better to practice with the actual cards you are playing against not only for deck estimation but recognition of the face of the cards. If you get an accidental card flash along the way, are you more likely to catch it if it's with the same cards you've been training with? There might be differences from a casino deck and a deck you buy out of the minimart in Boise, Idaho. I've always gotten my mitts on some of the actual cards of the casinos I'm playing in with any frequency to train with and use the discard rack on my blackjack table at home to mimic actual conditions. At the tables you are using a discard rack for deck estimation, so why not do the same in training?
I practice deck estimation by looking at the discard rack but will also take 2 decks and start plucking off 1/4 deck increments, 1/2 deck increments, etc. and then count them down to see how close you were. It's fairly easy to eventually get to the point of easily determining 1/4 to within a card or so, the point of being able to pick 1/4 deck off and count them down to see you have 12-14 cards or be right on at 13. 1/4 deck resolution becomes more important the deeper in you go. Where it's a big deal and absolutely critical for DD 62/104 or 6D 5/6, it's not so much a big deal if you are playing 8D 6/8. "Today's shoe games" you hear them say... what is that? A nice way of saying "Games that really suck!"? Yeah, if you are playing "Today's shoe games", then you start thinking less about 1/4 deck resolution and more about wonging in because that's the only feasible way to tackle a subpar game.
Smart casinos deal deep because that is were AP's tend to fail on their deck estimation skills in shoe games. If there are 4 or more decks left to be played half or even full deck estimate accuracy is pretty good. The RC is not going to be that high after 1 deck or 2 decks and and you need a RC of of +11 vs +10 to make a difference for TC +2. As decks seen get larger (decks left to be played get smaller) The denominator in the TC conversion gets smaller and smaller making accuracy more important. By the end of typical 1.5 decks cut off pen you are getting into need for 1/4 deck accuracy. Many AP's are pushing their deck estimation skills here. At pen that deals to less than 1 deck you need much higher accuracy. At 1/2 deck cut off the TC equals double the RC. If you estimate an extra 1/4 decks seen your TC is 4 times the RC at 1/4 deck estimates. If your estimations is 3/4 deck left instead of 1/2 deck left the TC is 1.25 times the RC. Basically by dealing deep in shoe games they make most AP's plays and bets very inaccurate because their deck estimation skills are not up to the task. On top of that when ranks are completely depleted even an accurate TC will be way off on actual advantage and playing decisions. Betting and playing EoR's that your bets and plays are based on fail at such severe depletion. It becomes easy for the casinos to see who the threats are as more accurate deck estimations will show up quicker in your win/loss. Then there are tricks they use to throw off your deck estimation like what discard tray they use, card thickness, different distances from the felt to the bottom of the discard tray etc. You combine these with deep pen and many AP's will flounder due to their poor deck estimation skills at this deep pen.
Well, deep pen get more rounds per hour so every casino should want to deal deep (just like getting a lightning fast dealer increases rounds per hour for an AP). The smart ones use the tricks and common AP deficiencies to actually deal deep and they are the ones that have the highest revenues per table on BJ.
Interesting point. I think it highlights a major advantage of using an unbalanced count (KO or TKO). In KO, once the running count passes the "pivot point" (4 x the number of decks used in the game), you know you are at least at +4 regardless of deck estimation. So you will have your max bet out and be on the lookout for the major (I18 playing) variations. I use TKO so I use deck estimation to further refine my true count for betting and playing. I have the comfort of knowing that even if I'm off a bit in the deck estimation, I'm not going to miss a max bet opportunity or a double on 9 v. 7 or 8 v. 6, etc....
I learned a very simple way to estimate full decks by reading 1536 Free Waters and Other Blackjack Endeavors--by Glen Wiggy. He pictured a dime on the discards. One dime is about 1 deck. So, if you can imagine dimes stacked up the side of the discards, you can determine approximately how many decks have been used.
As indicated earlier, be very cautious of deck thickness varying by casino. I have seen decks vary in thickness by as much as 20%. Some previous teams would get decks from the casinos they planned on playing to be sure they were accurate in their estimates. The issue increases in importance with sequencing and shuffle tracking.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
20% seems rather high but at the margins is probably accurate.
In pitch games my fingertips will work to tell me the thickness.
Shoe games need to be judged "by eye" -- with a word of caution
as to our estimations being "off" when (six) 6 deck games are
utilizing (eight) 8 deck discard trays.
The tip of my thumb to the bottom of my thumbnail is one deck. The tip of my thumb to the wrinkle where my first joint is on my thumb is two decks. If I make an "L" with my left hand using the first finger and thumb, the distance from the tip of my thumb to where the the first finger straightens is four decks.
The dealer always wonders why I extend my arm and give him "thumbs up." Little does he know I am measuring.
I'm just kidding about the last part you all.
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