Odds!?

[Bigdaddy]

Recently, I have also had my worst day ever while playing! Can someone please tell me if this makes any sense!! I play a great 8 deck game with great penetration about 1 deck cutoff! And also great favorable rules. Like s17 and surrender and doubling etc! I play 2x50-2x250 and I had my biggezt loss ever the other day! I lost about 6k in just 4 hours!! Lost about everyy max bet that daya. Is this even possible?! the night before i also lose 2k in about 6 hours at different casino with less penetration! Before this 8k swing I won 4500 in 4 hours. Is all this normal with this spreads?! Blackjack really weird past 20 hours of playing

I simmed this game using Hi-Lo with full indexes. It SCOREs about 27. The standard deviation per round is $218. So if you played 400 rounds, one standard deviation is $4,360 (20 x $218).The Z-score for your $6k loss was 1.48. This will happen about 7% of the time - certainly bad luck, but well within the realm of possibilities.

[RoadWarrior]

Y


You are playing a 5:1 spread on an 8 deck game. That is a spread that may be close to break even. I am not even sure you are playing a winning game. You are exposing yourself to a lot of risk with little reward. Of course I am assuming you play most counts since you didn't mention any wonging style. What does the sim say your EV and SD are? What about c-SCORE and CE?

Sorry, I womg only. I don't like the play all approach!. I use hilO and play +1 or +2 when jump in!!

[RoadWarrior]

I simmed this game using Hi-Lo with full indexes. It SCOREs about 27. The standard deviation per round is $218. So if you played 400 rounds, one standard deviation is $4,360 (20 x $218).The Z-score for your $6k loss was 1.48. This will happen about 7% of the time - certainly bad luck, but well within the realm of possibilities.

That sim is with Wong in only?! I believe you sim wrong approach!! I play only positive count +1 or +2 hiLo

[dharmaprija]

OP. Are u claiming to have lost approx. 22 HANDS or 22 ROUNDS approx. 242 hands in a row w/ occasionally pushing?

[RoadWarrior]

OP. Are u claiming to have lost approx. 22 HANDS or 22 ROUNDS approx. 242 hands in a row w/ occasionally pushing?

these were two separate days! One day i losee about 12 rounds in row! occasional push during those 12 rounds and I playing 2 hands each round! All rounds were at positive counts!

Another day i lose 6k in 4 hours only playing positive counts as well! 2x50 - 2x250 Something seems strange lately!

[Bigdaddy]

That sim is with Wong in only?! I believe you sim wrong approach!! I play only positive count +1 or +2 hiLo

My original sim was for playing all counts. With playing only positive counts, you would probably get about 30 rounds/hour, or 120 rounds in 4 hours. The standard deviation would be about $200/round. So one standard deviation would be about $2,200. If you lost $6,000 at this game, that puts the Z-score at about 2.93. That's rarified air. You have about a 0.17% chance of that happening. Something might be amiss...

[RoadWarrior]

My original sim was for playing all counts. With playing only positive counts, you would probably get about 30 rounds/hour, or 120 rounds in 4 hours. The standard deviation would be about $200/round. So one standard deviation would be about $2,200. If you lost $6,000 at this game, that puts the Z-score at about 2.93. That's rarified air. You have about a 0.17% chance of that happening. Something might be amiss...

unbelievable! did you use S17, DAS, LS, 8 deck 1 deck cut off??!!?

I also lost 2k the night before at another casino! about 80% pen same rules and deck! thats 8k in about 9 hours!

[Stealth]

I play 2x50-2x250 and I had my biggest loss ever the other day! I lost about 6k in just 4 hours!!

That gets you a ZScore of about -1.1, certainly not abnormal. My estimate is that you need a >$30K bank to play at RoR of around 10%? Big swings at your bet ramp are not going to be unusual.

[dharmaprija]

BD it seems u simmed wong cuz he wongs, therefore giving u wong results, actually non~wong results, but I could be wong. :-)

[Bigdaddy]

That gets you a ZScore of about -1.1, certainly not abnormal. My estimate is that you need a >$30K bank to play at RoR of around 10%? Big swings at your bet ramp are not going to be unusual.

Stealth - Not that I want to beat this horse much more, but please review my post #27 and tell me why you get a Z-Score of 1.1 for this game in a play-all situation. I get 1.48. I want to know in case I'm doing something wrong. Thanks