Chrome made a change that broke it. I'll look at putting it back.Originally Posted by klove
Thank you all for your comments.
Based on the thousands of hands that I have played for the past many years, the data indicated that there were shoes that I won most of the time and there were shoes that I did not win at all, no matter what I did.
The idea here is that when I win more, I bet more, and when I don’t win, I just stop or bet the minimum.
Strategy Goal: To increase my edge over the house’s edge over the long-run
I have classified the patterns from the shoe into many categories. I will increase or decrease my bets only at the right moment. The following are a few of those moments:
1. The 4:1 Pattern:
When I see this: WWWLW___, I will increase my bet from 1 unit to 5 units for the next hand. This is best for 6 to 8 decks shoes.
2. The 1:1 Patter:
When I see this: WLWL ___, I will increase my bet from 1 unit to 5 units for the next hand. This is best for double decks.
3. The Nothing Pattern:
When I see this: LLL ___, I will stop or continue to bet only 1 unit every time until the pattern changed into the 4:1 or 1:1 patterns above.
The following are also required:
1. Follow all basic Blackjack rules
2. Have a sound and strong money management plan. Having 60 units per session and five-session budget should be sufficient.
Read this, honestly, read it please.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...gful-patterns/
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Nice article. I liked the original "Scientific American" before they dumbed it down so more people could understand it. I think he goes to far with the formula p*c. You have evolved to see patterns because the dumb ancestors that didn't learn what a threat was tended to die at a much higher rate when the threat occurred. In voluntary things evolved to help those dumb shits survive. An example is gag reflex. Some smells make you gag or puke. That is because it is associated with something that if ingested would likely be fatal or crippling so a failsafe was evolved that made all puke when they smelled a smell that was associated with the risk of contamination in what may have been consumed. Then the ability to spot patterns like my friend died or I was almost killed when that happened will stick in your memory more than the things not associated with threats to life and well being.
An example is bow hunting. Prey animals all over the earth freak out when they here the twang of a bow string. I was hunting on a rainy day and my compound bow developed a squeak. Normally deer didn't freak out when I took a shot because the K-frame design of the Screaming Eagle compound bow caused a noise like 2 boards smashing together that was so loud it made the twang inaudible. While this sound was really, really loud and un-natural it was not genetically adapted to as a dangerous noise. Deer would be interested in what caused the noise but not flee reflexively when hearing the noise. Anyway back to the bow developing a squeak. The squeak sound had a calming affect on the Sika deer, a small sub-species of asiatic elk I was hunting. It sounded very similar to their vocalizations. But I shot a deer and it ran away. I snuck up on it and shot it again. I snuck up on it a second time and put a third arrow in it. Then I snuck on it a third time and drew my bow back creating the audible squeak a 4th time. The demeanor of the deer showed the initial calming affect for a split second but then I saw the look that indicated it made the association with the squeak and being shot. It started to get up from its bed but I finished it off with that shot. The deer had learned that the sound that normally was nonthreatening and actually the sound of another of its species was a sound associated with a grave threat. Had it learned quicker it might have survived. Usually a bow wound that doesn't cause fatal hemorrhaging from loss of blood or the spilling of guts or other things inside the body which become sepsis are easily healed with no complications. This type of sepsis will cause death anytime within a few hours to a few days.
Now the application to AP play or casino ploppy play. The imbred tendency is to remember and spot patterns in negative outcomes while ignoring positive outcomes more than the negative outcomes. This causes all kinds of superstitions to evolve because you have a memory bias toward the negative outcome. This causes costs of misplaying situations based on errant selective memory. We see it every day. Making errant comments like no I don't want to double that because it didn't work out for me well much recently. We even see new AP's saying they don't want to take insurance when it is the right play because they lose it a lot more often than they win it. Upon others pointing out you break even if you win it 1 time for every 2 times you lose your bet they usually see the flaw in their thinking. You may experience large short term swings due to the doubles and split frequency going up at max bet but each instance has a higher % gain on a higher bet. Win, win. They must learn that the large short term swings are not a threat because the long term benefit is large. All they need to do is properly size their bets so their BR can withstand the expected short term swings. Those large bets get most of their edge from the higher frequency of doubles and splits as well as the higher EV of each deviation when it is made. While instinct and observation makes us feel certain things are threats the math may tell us otherwise. Trust the math and ignore your pattern recognition except to further investigate and understand what is going on.
Last edited by Three; 03-15-2016 at 07:40 AM.
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