H17 vs S17

[maxmallan]

I noticed that the only strategy variation between H17 and S17 on a 6 deck, DAS, no surrender, peek game is
H17 Double 11 vs A, double soft 19 vs 6
S17 stay on both

Most of the basic strategy makes intuitive sense. Even standing 16 v 10 on a positive count, but not v 7, can be thought through to make sense. But I don't understand this one at all.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

...

The dealer's bust percentage is MUCH lower than you imagine when she has a 7 or 8 showing.

The 10 and Ace are more dangerous only because of the dealer's increased chance of

producing a final hand of 20 or 21. A hand of 17 or better will beat your 16.

[maxmallan]

...

The dealer's bust percentage is MUCH lower than you imagine when she has a 7 or 8 showing.

The 10 and Ace are more dangerous only because of the dealer's increased chance of

producing a final hand of 20 or 21. A hand of 17 or better will beat your 16.

I don't see how any of that is relevant to the question I posed.

[Nyne]

Also, double soft 18 vs 2 for H17. By the way, I assume it was a typo, but for S17, 11 vs A is a hit, not a stand.

Edit: Also, I can't tell which decision you are questioning in your OP. Might help to clarify that.

[maxmallan]

Yes it was a typo. For my new trick I will stand with an unbustable hand! My question is why not double those three hands in S17?

In all those cases, out of 13 ranks, 7 get your hand to 18 or more. So 7/13 you have 18+, 1/13 you have 17, and 5/13 you have 16 or less. If the dealer is forced to stand on his soft 17, I intuitively think it's MORE profitable to double, since chances are you'll be > 17.

I realize that math > my intuition; I'm just curious if there is an easy explanation.

[Aslan]

First of all, I always just trust the mathematics, ignoring my intuition or ability to reason it out. The calculated odds are what the calculated odds are.

But to wager a guess, both A/8 vs. 6 and 11 vs. A seem to be linked to the dealer's greater chance of busting due to his requirement to hit a soft 17 under H17, but not under S17. So, in this limited way, H17 is a help, even though overall it is a disadvantage.

[stopgambling]

THey r play this way for maximizing EV. THere r numerous ways for the dealer to make a hand ,not just a simple small card with a face card .The math has been worked out by the statistian and mathematican, we are just applying it . If you have the ablitiy and knowledge to do so ,you can figure out why they r play this way.

[Aslan]

THey r play this way for maximizing EV. THere r numerous ways for the dealer to make a hand ,not just a simple small card with a face card .The math has been worked out by the statistian and mathematican, we are just applying it . If you have the ablitiy and knowledge to do so ,you can figure out why they r play this way.

Or if you're really lucky, just play your hunch. I saw a guy hit hard 17 successfully several times winning seven or eight thousand dollars over a couple of hours. His friends said he had just sold his business for a bunch of millions and that money attracts money. The dealer said that he was a mathematical genius who knew what he was doing. I don't know the count for hitting hard 17 so I can't tell you. I wouldn't do it if I knew it, probably because the count would be so low that I wouldn't be there.

[dharmaprija]

ALot of index plays come down to miniscule percintiles.

[UK-21]

Followed this thread too.

Take a look at the table on the end of this: http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ev/6dh17.htm. It's the EVs for 6-decks H17 game. There's little in it really, and therefore the question arises around the prudence of doubling a bet for such a miniscule increase in EV; the old pigeon around risk and return?

And for the OP's benefit, these EV figures assume first hand off the top of a new shoe.

[Coyote]

If the count calls for hitting 17s then it's time to go to get up, get a drink, and check out the sites.