Insurance at +2.5

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Your strong hand, e.g. 20 or 11 has good equity.
By insuring, you are simply paying a premium.
The "cost" of the premium is very low if your
True Count is close to your index.

[NotEnoughHeat]

"Does anyone use +2.5 rather than +3 for Hi-Lo shoe game insurance or would otherwise recommend it?"

If the 6-deck Hi-Lo insurance index is +3.0, what is your motivation for wanting to insure too early?

Don

Perhaps I'm just going on bad numbers that have been passed around, but I was reading post #19 here: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-records/page2

If this is accurate (you'd know much better than me) then it'd seem like you'd have nothing to lose by insuring 'early' because the index itself is already a bit late. Again, 'if'.

EDIT From this article: https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/en...nsurance-Index it appears that the +2.5 number is for double deck.

[Sharky]

"Does anyone use +2.5 rather than +3 for Hi-Lo shoe game insurance or would otherwise recommend it?"

If the 6-deck Hi-Lo insurance index is +3.0, what is your motivation for wanting to insure too early?

Don

i use 3.14159265

[Freightman]

i use 3.14159265

I guess you could call that a Pi chart.

[Three]

I think I got all this started in another thread. I used a fuzzy memory recall that someone said +2.5. I don't use Hilo so I don't know the indices. The exact index was not important for the example I was discussing and +3 just makes HILO lite insurance index that much worse. Anyway if you understood the concept I was applying in the thread you know that with a positive index you are better off erring on the high side of the actual decimal index than an equal amount on the low side. TC frequency is what hurts you here. Smaller magnitude TC's are more frequent than higher magnitude TC's which is what drives which error tends to be better. A negative index is the opposite TC frequency favors erring with the lower index which is the index with the highest magnitude (if you don't understand what that means higher magnitude is the larger absolute value. Absolute value makes negative number positive. All absolute values are positive or 0).

[Dog Hand]

I use 2.71828...

Naturally

Dog Hand

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"Euler's Number", of course.

This is the best explanation you'll find:

http://www.mathsisfun.com/numbers/e-eulers-number.html

[DSchles]

"Theoretically, +2.667 is the cut-off point that buying insurance and not buying has the same ev for Hi-Lo system. Personally I use +2.667."

Don't think this is true. It's 3.0 for 6-deck. On what do you base your assertion?

Don

[Three]

The trouble with decimal indices is they may attempt a greater degree of accuracy than the data allows for. Indices can vary with pen and other things. What we know is that the integer index for 6 deck is +3 and it has slightly positive EV at +3 and more negative EV at +2. The decimal integer for 8 deck is 3.1 I believe. I would take Don's word that the decimal index is 3.0. He usually doesn't speak without having an impeccable source. Since +3 includes +3.0 to +3.9 the slight EV gain from the deviation for +3 would seem to indicate that the decimal index is probably not below +3.0.

[BJGenius007]

"Theoretically, +2.667 is the cut-off point that buying insurance and not buying has the same ev for Hi-Lo system. Personally I use +2.667."

Don't think this is true. It's 3.0 for 6-deck. On what do you base your assertion?

Don

Sorry. Sometimes I forgot I no longer use plain Hi-Lo. The correct statement should be +3.333 for Hi-Lo and +2.667 for SuperAccu Hi-Lo. Since only 80% of high cards are face cards,

+2.666 / 0.8 = +3.333

If all high cards are face cards,

(16 + 1.333) / 52 = 1/3

[CHAM]

Insuring good hands when close to index is acceptable.

Thanks Freight, that's great info.

[FalseCount]

I assume some will have input on this, but I often find myself in situations where my small bankroll and consequently small wagers are eclipsed by larger players at my own table. Is it worth it to try to scavenge their insurance wager in extremely high counts? Playing double deck I have seen double digit true counts where there were hundreds of dollars of insurance availability from other players. I put out $30 for full insurance, sure enough the dealer has it, but I kick myself for letting pass by the substantial edge on all that other money.

[DSchles]

"The correct statement should be +3.333 for Hi-Lo."

That's not right either. It's for infinite deck. I gave you the correct value for 6-deck. Don't try to reinvent the wheel. The 6-deck Hi-Lo insurance index is NOT 3.33.

Don