if the TC is like -3, why does this help the dealer? if its H17, and dealer has like a hard 15 and hits and makes a 18, how is that different from the player doing the exact same thing? shouldnt the chances be the same?
if the TC is like -3, why does this help the dealer? if its H17, and dealer has like a hard 15 and hits and makes a 18, how is that different from the player doing the exact same thing? shouldnt the chances be the same?
The player has the option of not hitting 12-16, according to both the dealer's upcard and the count. By contrast, the dealer, must hit all 12-16 hands, and is less likely to bust and more likely to make high hands in a low count.
It's also not just the excess of low cards, but the lack of high cards, which is worse for the player: double downs and non-defensive splits (like 9-9 v 6) all go much better when the count is higher.
Ever notice how many 20 and 21 totals the dealer draws out to with itty-bitty cards? It's not your imagination: the dealer has to keep drawing until he surpasses 16, and low counts mean things go better for the dealer and worse for you.
"Wait a minute. How do you beat someone to death with their own skull? That doesn't seem physically possible." "That's what Jimmy kept screaming: 'This doesn't seem physically possible!'"
The dealer has a massive built in advantage because he gets to go last. If you bust out you lose regardless of the dealers total. (Dealer doesn't have to hit a stiff hand if everyone's already lost). Couple that with the rules that the dealer MUST hit their 12-16 stiffs no matter what makes low valued cards very valuable. Still, most of the player edge from counting cards comes from the result of the 3-2 payoff on blackjacks, without which the house edge of blackjack would be like that of a carnival game.
Dealer has the advantage because he goes last. If you bust and he busts...you still lose. So while you you have the same chance as drawing a 3 on a 15 to total 18, as does the dealer, but you also have the same chance to bust -- and you cannot win if you bust (but a dealer can win if be busts, assuming you busted already!).
Also, doubling isn't as effective in a -TC deck, and also less BJ's. On the contrare, maybe you already won the first few hands with all those tens & aces that cooled down the deck....so a -TC isn't always thaaaat bad!
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