This.Originally Posted by Tthree
This makes sense. For a typical card counter playing an average game with a 1% advantage, his N0 is probably around 25,000 rounds and his N03 (99.7% chance of being ahead) would be 9 x that amount, or 225,000 rounds.
Looking at the other side of the curve, for the basic strategist playing a typical game with a .5% disadvantage, the casino's N0 would be around 50,000 rounds, and N03 (99.7% chance of the player being behind) would be 450,000 rounds. Not sure if I'm interpolating the N0's correctly, but it seems to make sense.
That being said, if a player is regular BJ player logging 10 hours per week, he's probably getting in around 50,000 hands per year. So he gets to N03 in 9 years. "Sorry buddy, but your luck just ran out..."
But a casual BJ player that plays once a month for 4 hours is only going to log about 5,000 hands per year. So he could go for a lifetime with a cumulative win. So it is definitely possible that there are some of these lucky ploppies walking among us...
When I was trying out online casinos, I played at over 60 casinos. The idea, of course, is to make money on the bonuses. Funny thing, I made more money from luck, flat-betting the negative expectation games, than I made on the bonuses.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
You are a hero when it works. Think you know the corollarywhen my multi card18 becomes 19 and dealers multi card 21 becomes bust ,that's my day.Also my bj get 1.7 to 1The ploppy next to me always afraid to double against 7-9 and the deuce with 10 .i am just laughing while i get to gamble on their spot.
It's probably close enough for comparison. However a 1% player disadvantage and a 1% play advantage don't necessarily yield the same N0 because the two situations are likely to have different (although not wildly distant) variance. Even a 1% player disadvantage could be achieved in different ways with different V/SD's.
I would have to answer;
yes, you can win at BJ without counting and the less you play the more likely you are to feel as if you are a 'winner' (small sample size). However, over the long haul you will more than likely get eatin' up being you are essentially giving up x amount of $ per round played. You have a much better chance of playing mini bac, or just flat betting the don't pass line in craps - if you go this route make sure you play rated . From there you can use the table game match play/free play to help you coincide with the HE.
There is no glory in practice, but without practice there is no glory . -Unknown
I personally don't like to do scavenger plays that cost the host player money because I like to be as little negative impact on the rest of the players.
However, intellectually, I have a hard time saying it's wrong if I'm to be consistent. I think spreading to more spots than you had before during a good count (as well as reducing during bad counts) is morally permissible. The ethical framework I use to justify that is pretty much the same thing Norm says on the ethics of gambling in an old blog post buried somewhere on the website. Basically the idea is that blackjack, whether ploppies know it or not, is a skill game. There is nothing wrong with you beating another player in poker. Although your primary target in blackjack is the house, the fact that your skillful play takes EV away from ploppies shouldn't be wrong either. Also, for the most part, it's pennies per hour.
I suppose the reason I don't like doing hurtful scavenger plays is that it isn't necessary to my game and they usually hurt the player for a decent amount compared to the gain (which might be irrelevant anyways). Scavenger is just a bit of a bonus here and there. If it doesn't hurt anybody I'm glad to do it. If the ploppy doesn't want the money, I'd rather I have it than the casinos.
Ploppies are mostly made up of degenerates of various degree. they come at set hours or when they have money to gamble , I am merely shortening their time to lose money by just a fraction as compared to their bad play in bj.The house and (especially) some dealers encourage these ploppies to play the side bets with very high H.E. , so they can get a chance for a big tip. That 's not unethical.?
The ethics of gambling is an interesting topic. I'm curious to see if there's any academic literature on it. While not a academic philosopher by any means, one view you might have is summed up in this quotation of Canada Bill Jones: "It's immoral to let a sucker keep his money." It's an interesting subject to discuss for sure, but for now, I'll leave it at that.
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for 2-3 sessions in a row until i can not take it any more,i felt guilty.
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