I have been playing for about a year. Up and down game...mostly down. Seem like I am playing the same lousy hands over and over; even when moving tables. Can the shoe game be beaten. or to have a chance of winning at BJ...is counting card needed. Do you think the card are being shuffled by machine...same bad hands over and over again....(13-16)...l
No. Blackjack cannot be beaten without counting. The shuffling machines have nothing to do with the poor hands you're being dealt. That's selective memory...Originally Posted by bumpneely3535
The shoe game CAN be beaten. You'll need to learn a counting system, be sufficiently funded, and you'll need to practice, practice, and practice. I'll mention that I did start with a tiny "bankroll", but I took the "Hail Mary" approach and came out alive due to having positive variance on my side.
Good luck, if you choose to move forward in upping your BJ game.
Please explain that for me. WIN ON PUSHES??? I cannot wrap my simple mind around that comment, since I do not believe that by definition, one can win when the result is a tie.Counting cards at bj is the most basic way of beating it. It is possible to beat it by non counting but not the way you think i assumed.If you win on pushes a lot you can beat it.
"Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."
Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/
OP, there are many ways to beat blackjack as well as (just about) every other casino game: blackjack & other table games, slots & video poker, video & live keno, hosts & marketing, as well as promotions. Some places you can get +EV at the restaurants, although legal, some would say unethical. Sometimes you need both in conjunction in order to win -- sometimes you don't.
Vulnerabilities exist in every game.
But you can't beat a game due to money management or some betting system. You need an advantage somewhere...but simply increasing or decreasing the size of your bets WITHOUT regard to your advantage/disadvantage, is not going to make you a winner.
Not sure what stopgambling is referring to specifically (other than perhaps a promotion of some sorts)....but amazing things can be found if you look hard enough and for the right conditions. I found a game where, if played "properly", you would essentially get paid a (sizable) bonus on most hands. Win/lose/push you'd get the bonus. The downside is BJ's paid even money with no bonus. And doubling-down was restricted, too.
Last edited by RS; 02-25-2016 at 05:59 AM.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Jacobson has an article on the probability of a lucky basic strategy player having a lifetime win.
His calculations showed one percent of perfect basic strategy players would still have a lifetime win at 478,000 hands. If a player is less than perfect (1% disadvantage) there is still one percent of players that will be ahead at 71,500 hands.
http://apheat.net/2014/07/10/getting...-at-blackjack/
I have yet to meet a perfect basic strategy player who is not an AP. I have met a few square players that have reported multi-year winning streaks.
So it's possible for a player to have a lifetime win without counting, but unlikely.
Two other strategies besides counting are hole-carding and shuffle tracking. But even shuffle tracking is an advanced form of card counting. One thing try I do is to buy insurance on others' hands when the count warrants it. These are always people with whom I am well acquainted. Strangers are taboo.
This makes sense. For a typical card counter playing an average game with a 1% advantage, his N0 is probably around 25,000 rounds and his N03 (99.7% chance of being ahead) would be 9 x that amount, or 225,000 rounds.
Looking at the other side of the curve, for the basic strategist playing a typical game with a .5% disadvantage, the casino's N0 would be around 50,000 rounds, and N03 (99.7% chance of the player being behind) would be 450,000 rounds. Not sure if I'm interpolating the N0's correctly, but it seems to make sense.
That being said, if a player is regular BJ player logging 10 hours per week, he's probably getting in around 50,000 hands per year. So he gets to N03 in 9 years. "Sorry buddy, but your luck just ran out..."
But a casual BJ player that plays once a month for 4 hours is only going to log about 5,000 hands per year. So he could go for a lifetime with a cumulative win. So it is definitely possible that there are some of these lucky ploppies walking among us...
It's probably close enough for comparison. However a 1% player disadvantage and a 1% play advantage don't necessarily yield the same N0 because the two situations are likely to have different (although not wildly distant) variance. Even a 1% player disadvantage could be achieved in different ways with different V/SD's.
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