Play how you wish. I suggest you cut your "results" posts to once a week. This is an AP site and people really have no interest in day-to-day results of a voodoo strategy. Or, any strategy for that matter as day-to-day results are meaningless.
Play how you wish. I suggest you cut your "results" posts to once a week. This is an AP site and people really have no interest in day-to-day results of a voodoo strategy. Or, any strategy for that matter as day-to-day results are meaningless.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Let me try.
When you gamble in the long run your results will seek out each bet made times the edge in the game. If you have no way of knowing the ebb and flow of advantage to alter your bets with advantage information of some sort, you are betting randomly. In the long run the edge is the house edge times your total amount bet for random bets. You are betting randomly so that is the math. Your expected loss grows with every bet and with enough repetition your results will approach expectation. that is the math and there is no way around it.
What a progression does is change the ride to that inevitable long run. A martingale is a slow growth upward with occasional huge losses. Most experience the upward trend more often until they end up way way behind. All other progressions change the ride in their own ways. Some lose steadily but have but have big recoveries but they are headed for the same long run. You have been experiencing the Oscar's Grind rife to the same long run.
Progressions are not suited well to BJ. You loss far more hands than you win. The advantage fluctuates so without advantage change info you will be randomly altering bets to a random advantage. What this does is increase the volatility of you results. Translated to poppy lingo that means with random bets were disadvantage is not constant your results will be a lot less predictable than betting to a constant disadvantage. That means you will randomly expect results a lot better and a lot worse than betting to a constant disadvantage. And raising your bets just makes your expected loss higher so it is worse than flat betting in the long run. You play long enough and your results will approach long run expectation. Yours is to lose at the HE*(Your total amount bet). The results along the way to the long run are just noise.
What is in your control is whether you quit way ahead of your negative expectation or play until you approach it as it grows with every bet. There are ways to play at a true advantage and have positive long term expectations. If you stay long enough and try to learn you might actually play with a mathematical positive expectation.
Last edited by Three; 02-23-2016 at 08:07 PM.
Potluck. You seem like a nice enough person. I've been around gamblers most of my life. What is it you are trying to accomplish? There is one guy in the sportsbook that just has to tell everyone his picks, his win's (which are few) and his losses (which are many). One buddy laughs and says "man, he must have done something horrible in a previous life, because he is sure being punished for it now." Then, he bets the other way...his best system. They teased the poor guy relentless for swiping donuts out of the VIP lounge.
My point is his boastfulness got him into trouble and losses made him a laughing stock. Why take on the extra pressure? I hope you're killing 'em, but if you are, my advice is to walk softly.
I appreciate your write up / lecture, I really do, it looks like it took some time, but I'm fully aware and understand all concepts you are talking about thoroughly. Thank you again as you were actually trying to help, but I'm not interested in the small edge of an AP.Originally Posted by Tthree
I've had my fair share of attacks. But I try to learn something from everything I do. Right or wrong. Every day is a new day for me and each session played has no relation to the one before or after. I don't even keep track of my own numbers, let alone peruse someone else's. My competitor is across the table - not me. The less I have in my head the better.
Don't get me wrong. I wish you the best. But the worst person a gambler can lie to is themselves.
You are apparently not interested in playing with any advantage at all. That is fine but you came to the wrong forum if you expect people to get excited about your results. We know what the end will be. The question is how much time will it take.
Unfortunately, you do not realize that you are NOT being attacked. You are being informed that your system does not work. Again, this is not an opinion.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
I personally don't mind these posts. I enjoy railbirding most gambling stories.
Something to keep in mind: when it comes to gambling, results are the least convincing way to show people that what you're doing makes money. For example, would you be convinced that someone who bet $5 on red and won $5 was a winning player? Of course not. Sure, with a large enough sample size, your results can be convincing. The problem is that that sample size is larger than most people think. A couple days or weeks of play is nowhere near enough. If you said that you've been playing 8 hours a day, every day, for a few years and were still up a significant amount in portion to your bets that might noteworthy enough to consider the possibility that your system works, but even then there would still be room for skepticism. It doesn't take a life time to prove that you're at least winning in most cases (although it takes more than a lifetime to have a reasonable estimate of your advantage).
So the point is, your results can easily be explained as luck, and not even spectacular luck.
I know you still might refuse to believe this, but the fundamental notion behind your system is problematic as the martingale or any other progression. People have, and will be harsh on you on this website for championing such a system. Don't take it too personally, I'm sure most of them have good intentions.
For what it's worth, I wish you luck anyways.
moses - thanks for the advice, appreciate it
tthree - I thought this was the disadvantage forum, one that is not about counting, and if you aren't interested in the posts or results, simply don't follow, no big deal
Norm - reread all your posts in this thread and tell me you have been kind and not condescending...
Midnite Toker - That's funny, keep the positive suggestions coming
NotEnoughHeat - Thanks for the support, keep following appreciate it
Lastly, I get it, I understand everyones stance and why there is every reason in the world to think this will fail, it is fundamental math. I haven't once posted that I have reinvented the wheel and solved the game, and I won't. Just saying through extensive testing and now real play, this is working on a small sample size as of now in one of the most high variance games online (meaning a reshuffle after every hand). I really am just posting to have fun and record my results, there is nothing else behind my intention.
Posting Permissions
-*-
Bookmarks