What limits more APs?

[RS]

Romes, may have missed my point a bit. Though I appreciate the advice about checking out other games. And trying to learn them, too. The issue is NOT bankroll.........the issue, like Sandybestdog stated likewise is PAUCITY of games/tables period!! It's not that there are four tables I can play at..........there are ONLY 4 tables. Table limits are not the issue it's lack of tables in number.

T-three knows where we are........but plays in a different area. I understand traveling to other towns/places/gambling areas when able. But what I'm asking the group is..........besides practicing and waiting to go to other areas........do they have suggestions on how often I should play (or not play) the local houses. I don't want to destroy what "limited" opportunities I have here and I play at a lower level now than I would traveling JUST so I continue to fly under the radar (hopefully). But if you continue to play a "winning" game...........no matter how small they are..........will that catch up to you?

I disagree. The AP is not forced to only play in his location -- It is the AP's decision to play in one location (and not travel / go full-time).

I can't think of a single game that cannot be beaten, under the proper circumstances. Ya might be able to beat the VP at one store but not 10 others. And you can probably beat BJ in 100 stores but there'll exist stores where it cannot be beaten (card-counting // and it be 'worth it'). Slot machines can be beaten at some properties but not others. The problem for many APs is that they do not know how to beat these other games. If you're exceptionally brilliant, you can figure some of these things out on your own (without anyone's help). But chances are, if you get in a network with other APs and help each other out, you'll learn something new -- you can use this new thing you learned (how to beat XYZ game/machine/table/promo/etc.) and see where else it can be applied.

Those who know how to beat other games that aren't made open to the public (ie: card counting, what bob dancer does to VP, etc.)....aren't going to share this stuff on open forums or write articles about it {AT LEAST THEY SHOULDN'T BE...}, until of course, months or years after that opportunity is all dried up and the opportunity is no longer available or rarely available or they retire, then they might write about it. You can read about something that was happening 5 years ago, but it doesn't help you much today.

If anyone's watched the series Prison Break, there's a quote from Alex Mahone, "The problem I find with being on a trail is that by definition you'll always be behind your prey."

[Sandybestdog]

This is one of the original pit falls I mentioned on page 1. There's more to study, and/or you don't know just how much more is out there to study. There's a lot more than blackjack in 'nearly' every casino... a lot more. For starters, just walk by every single game and think "how could I beat this?" From there you'll form questions, which you can take to the internet and search for answers via dozens of forums, pointers to books, etc. For those whom really want to learn, they'll find the information; I can personally speak to that.

Right exactly, I walk by all of the games and see if I can figure a way it can be beaten. The games I mentioned I have not figured out a way to. Obviously you can always count cards. Putting that aside, the other things I look for are hard to find. You can go by 2 or 3 casino's but if the game you want is not open or an opportunity is not present, you have nothing to do. Admittedly, my biggest problem is that I can only go out 1-2 days a week and have to travel a lot. If I could camp out in a area for a few days and just constantly scout, I could probably find more opportunities. But as of now, I can look all day and not find one opportunity. Then you get caught up playing civilian while testing stuff and lose money with no real opportunity to make it back. One time I found a holecard opportunity on a blackjack game. I played it for about 2 hours and made about $200 but had to leave cause I had to be at work in 7 hours and lived an hour away. So it's a cat and mouse game. You need a job cause you can't find enough opportunities to make a living but when you find an opportunity you have to leave to go to your job.

There are a couple other things I have thought of that I didn't mention.

[RS]

Right exactly, I walk by all of the games and see if I can figure a way it can be beaten. The games I mentioned I have not figured out a way to. Obviously you can always count cards. Putting that aside, the other things I look for are hard to find. You can go by 2 or 3 casino's but if the game you want is not open or an opportunity is not present, you have nothing to do. Admittedly, my biggest problem is that I can only go out 1-2 days a week and have to travel a lot. If I could camp out in a area for a few days and just constantly scout, I could probably find more opportunities. But as of now, I can look all day and not find one opportunity. Then you get caught up playing civilian while testing stuff and lose money with no real opportunity to make it back. One time I found a holecard opportunity on a blackjack game. I played it for about 2 hours and made about $200 but had to leave cause I had to be at work in 7 hours and lived an hour away. So it's a cat and mouse game. You need a job cause you can't find enough opportunities to make a living but when you find an opportunity you have to leave to go to your job.

There are a couple other things I have thought of that I didn't mention.

I think too many APs are scared to give up EV testing stuff. I'm not saying throw your money away, or that you should always test stuff ---- but you gotta figure out how much testing is worth it. Might fail 9 out of 10 casinos, but that 1 gold mine you find, will make back all your losses plus a lot lot more.

[Sandybestdog]

I think too many APs are scared to give up EV testing stuff. I'm not saying throw your money away, or that you should always test stuff ---- but you gotta figure out how much testing is worth it. Might fail 9 out of 10 casinos, but that 1 gold mine you find, will make back all your losses plus a lot lot more.

You see that's my problem. I'll sit down and test stuff knowing my negative expectation is X but then I lose way more than that. This is not just on one occasion but like 13 out of 15 times in the past couple of months. Forget about house advantage. In a couple different sessions I'll be down 2-3 times standard deviation. Then the few winning sessions are like only $50 up. It's become so expensive to test stuff. I'm not going to belabor the point, we all have losing streaks. It's just hard to determine if you even are playing to get an edge or if you just ended up playing too long as a civilian. I'm a big believer in playing the odds and going by the math, but in my experience the math just doesn't work out the way they say it does. It seems so easy to lose 10x what the house edge would dictate but so difficult to break even or make a little using plus side variance to overcome the house edge.

[RS]

Depends how much testing you're doing. If you're only playing 5-10 hands on a table game per test session and have 15 such sessions, your results are gonna be all over the place (compared to EV).

Not sure what you mean by "break even or make a little using plus side variance to overcome the house edge." ???

Testing can be annoying, especially if you run bad. I've had plenty of bad runs on testing stuff....expect to lose some trivial amount and end up getting blasted for 10x that amount. Feels like a waste of time, especially when nothing pans out down the road for that store. On the other hand, can happen the other way around, expect to lose a small amount and end up winning 10x that amount (or more!). Get nothing down the road, ugh, what a waste! But several tests later, and, what do ya got there -- ya figure something out and now can hammer away, making way way more than you ever expected to lose by testing.

[Tampaplayer]

I've only recently been interested in becoming an AP, but the biggest issue seems to be proximity to worthwhile games.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Learn the requisite skills and TRAVEL (on pseudo-vacations) to play;
even if that means playing for a few days at a time 2 or 3 times a year.

Do not play poor games just because they are the only casinos that you can get to easily.
Game Selection isa a primary skill for an A.P. wannabe. Devote extreme amounts of time
reading, studying, practicing, and memorizing.

[mcallister3200]

Lack of worth ethic or time are biggest limiting factors IMO. Part timers can be very successful but there are limits to what you can do with limited time. When it comes down to it, the ones willing to work the hardest to find games and get the rounds in get the most money, no matter the AP avenue chosen.

[DatabaseGuy]

A good AP knows when to listen to the voices in his head.

[ZeeBabar]

I think the missing factors in this discussion. The OP is asking what he could do, given that there are only 3-4 casinos around with limited opportunities. I think that for the local spots, you just cannot go, play unrated, win and do it week after week. The minute you play unrated, they begin noticing you and the scrutiny gets high after a few visits.

People said that I should travel, play less often, study more etc., . Fact is that I could not resist visiting the same casinos nearby. Maybe we are addicted. In any case, I decided to play rated, decided to become friendly with pit folks (since they will notice me anyway), decided to make jokes when I was leaving after a win ("I get to hold the casinos money for a day or two"), often lament that while I had now become a decent player of BJ, that I win as many sessions as I lose but that my average win session is $500, my average losing session is $1200, most of the regulars are on first name basis with each other. I believe the management and pit are like the bar owners in "Cheers" and we are the regular customers, don't lose much but enough and pose no danger, that we want the casino to keep open, not go broke.

i think the persona you build, the nicer you are, the easier it is. You keep winning at modest levels, ensure they note when you are having a poor session, hide a few chips and you can get away. One buddy says that he just goes for a $200 win each day. Sometimes, this happens in 5 minutes, sometimes in 3 hours as he might lose $600 or more and try to get back at the plus side. Techniques about departures when winning or losing and other stuff needs to be developed.

[Stealth]

You see that's my problem. I'll sit down and test stuff knowing my negative expectation is X but then I lose way more than that. This is not just on one occasion but like 13 out of 15 times in the past couple of months.

To test your results against your "EV" you will need to insure your "sampling" is adequate to give a representative results. Playing for an hour and logging about 100 rounds is not an adequate sample. I use n0 at 2 standard deviations as a measure of my long term and want to compare my results toward that goal. For example, if my N0@2SD is about 35,000 rounds then the statistics tell me I need about 400 rounds for a valid sample at 95% confidence and +/-5% error range. Few sessions meet this requirement so you must add multiple sessions until the number of rounds is equal to or greater than your sampling requirement (400). Also add the actual and EV for the sample and recalculate the standard deviation.

Then you can look at your actual results within the confines of this combined standard deviation. This is a far more accurate representation of your results.

Then, if my results are outside of 3 SD, then I begin to analyze the play to see what could have been the cause. And that can be, inaccurate reporting of session results, errors, betting errors, cover play, etc.

This type of analysis does not give an "answer" but will raise a flag worthy of more in-depth review.

[Stealth]

I think the missing factors in this discussion. The OP is asking what he could do, given that there are only 3-4 casinos around with limited opportunities.

Too many OP's learn to count, practice and become good practitioners of the skill, figure out a bet ramp that fits their bank and head off to the casino. Then they bet with the ramp trying to "get the money in play" while having an advantage. When longevity rises to importance as indicated in this post, then the OP must develop playing protocols that are more likely to be accepted.

As example of this is to alternate bets on each round using two separately designed bet ramps, one large one and one small one. When used, this will appear as you are often raising your bet in a reducing count and/or lowering your bet in a increasing count. With proper design, the combined ramps can fit your EV/RoR needs and provide a high level of cover from EITS analysis. Surveillance observation looking for "betting with the count" will be very confused.

While this may add to your longevity, cumulative win and past observation by casino personnel will eventually trump all cover.

PS Should note that the alternating bankrolls idea was not my idea, but rather one originated (as far as I know) by Dr. Richard Reid in his E-Book and is one that I believe to be very effective.

[DatabaseGuy]

Local = Indian? I have never seen a back off at an Indian casino but they happen. It takes a LOT to get BO or 86 there. There is an arsenal of counter measures before that happens, including intimidation. But people do get banned. What action are we talking? Red chips?