What limits more APs?

[houyi]

Would you say it's lack of talent/intelligence? Discipline to study? Lack of a bankroll and any ability to reliably build one? Lack of good games? Social considerations? Ability to remove emotion from one's game?

I know that, for me, the tilt factor was always my biggest weakness. Everything else was easy, but the fact that I could so often lose even when I had an edge definitely provoked me into making some stupid plays when I started out, and I definitely spewed money I didn't have to. If I hadn't been working a high paying job as well, I might well have gone busto.

[BigJer]

Would you say it's lack of talent/intelligence? Discipline to study? Lack of a bankroll and any ability to reliably build one? Lack of good games? Social considerations? Ability to remove emotion from one's game?

All of the above.

[Freightman]

Once you've determined that you want to beat the house, notwithstanding developing skills, you need to have the game conditions to do so. Since most newbies are stretched bankroll wise, the lack of low stakes games makes it very difficult for the newb to build a roll. IMHO.

[Romes]

There's a lot of different things it "could" be, but more/less it's an individualistic approach. If a friends finds out a little bit about AP and wants me to teach him, then he won't have the pitfalls that I did, so those wouldn't limit him. Where as if someone new gets in to AP on their own, they may hit those pitfalls. If you're looking for a more "in general" answer though, I'd rate the following in order:

1) Lack of study. We're all eager beavers when we think we can take on the casino and win. We learn about counting, practice for a few nights, a week or two, and think "this is easy!" Then often find in the real setting we were unprepared. Or even better we're not, counting is easy... but we don't know what RoR or bankroll means.

All of the information is generally scattered about. So you can read about counting here, deviations here, kelly betting here, RoR here, etc. Most people stumble on to "enough" information that they don't consider there's more out there. They read what they have available from their "one site" or wherever, and then they think that's all they need to know and want to put it in to practice. This is literally the main reason I developed 3 "A to Z" articles on WoV about card counting blackjack. I tried to put all of the info I found from 10 different sites/books/others together and in 1 place, as well as answer a lot of FAQ's in 1 place. To me, this is without a doubt the probable cause of what limits most AP's; lack of study and lack of knowing there's more information out there to study.

2) Bankroll Management

3) Emotions. Most people don't understand how much of a roller coaster blackjack is and how you can LOSE FOR MONTHS at a time. This will break most players and convince them counting doesn't work, they don't know how to do it, etc, etc, when in fact it could just be poor variance.

[RS]

Id say an AP already has a bankroll and doesn't have tilt or emotional issues. You need those things to become an AP, though.

I'd say the biggest issue (IMO) is not having the ability or not being able to figure out how to beat certain games or promotions, properly. It's one thing to study and learn about card counting, essentially being spoon fed the information and everything necessary. But it's a totally different animal when you hear of a good promotion and need to figure out how to beat it....and sometimes you only have a very short period of time to determine the best way to attack. You can't spend a few days running simulations or doing the math.

[Zach Black]

I think knowledge of advantage play by general public is very limited and inaccurate. Many intelligent people believe the house always wins.

Of the few people that have the intelligence and money to be successful at AP activities, many are too busy with employment and family obligations to have time enough to devote to the AP activity.

Many would be AP's can't handle the psychological aspect of long losing streaks or have a bankroll that's inadequate.

[BJGenius007]

Lack of information. All the books will only teach the so called AP to win using 16 to 1 spread at 6D tables. But the game can be beat handily even with much lower spread. It is just that people know how like to keep it a secret from the public. The 1% AP needs the 99% AP to contribute to casinos as well as the ploppites do in order for the 1% to succeed. If everyone was a winner, the casino would stop offering the game. Right now both the dark side and the light side want to keep the game as it is. The ploppies do ploppies do. The 99% AP are taught and use a clumsy tool (big spread) that casinos can easily detect and ban them if they show they can use the clumsy tool well. But the 1% that knows the better way will be always in a safe place to win. Ask T3 and ZenMaster. I myself fought hard to obtain the secret. Once I was considering sharing the secret, but I realize the consequence would be that casinos just shut down the currently balanced game once BJ can be easily beaten by average Joe with some training.

[Blitzkrieg]

Once you've determined that you want to beat the house, notwithstanding developing skills, you need to have the game conditions to do so. Since most newbies are stretched bankroll wise, the lack of low stakes games makes it very difficult for the newb to build a roll. IMHO.

They're tons of low stakes games out there.

[RS]

I touched on this earlier but didn't have time to write a longer post. Romes said it too (partially).

But, of course everyone is in a different situation -- some people have families, some don't have the necessary bankroll, some don't have the time to learn/study/research, some have the emotional/tilt problems, they have a full time job....but....that's a dead obvious answer. None of that is necessarily specific to AP. If you're trying to build a business, go to school & get a degree, become a GM at chess...whatever it may be, those same things are going to limit you, albeit, some are worse limitations than others.


Things that are specific to limiting APs is.....well, it's not just ONE thing, it's all correlated together [unless you're really really good and can figure out stuff on your own]. You need a network of other APs. And not just "other people who are advantage players", but those who are taking the next step up. If you really want to excel, it doesn't come from reading articles online, reading books, posting or reading on forums, etc. -- it comes from doing the dirty work. Instead of reading online about how to hole-card, you should be out there looking at games and figuring out their weaknesses. Reading and doing research is good, but if you're only being spoon-fed information and not figuring stuff out on your own, you're always going to be a day late and a dollar short. This is why you need a strong network.

A little while back I learned about some incredible information. The way the information or technique was being used was basically the same in each opportunity that arose for that technique to be used. By me personally being able to use this information, I went out and found many games that were even more exploitable than the other games that were being played using this technique. Once I figured out how incredible this was, others that I trusted and I were playing it. The great thing is....the edge is huge with low variance, that is, under the proper conditions. Now that I had shared this information with others whom I trust, the same thing happened -- but in reverse. Now they went out and used this technique-with-a-twist and found more and more exploitable situations. I believe Eliot Jacobson and Michael Shackleford did some analyses on different promotions and both came to the same conclusion -- it's worth very little, and if you do it, it should be done more as a "for fun" AP thing to do, not something to make any serious money at.


Don't be scared to play -EV games due to scouting. If the only games you play are +EV, then that means it's already been figured out -- you're a day late and a dollar short. Some of the best plays I've ever been on (and am currently playing) have a HE as little as 3% to as large as 10% (but MY EDGE is somewhere between 5% to 15% typically, but sometimes up to 80-90% advantage). It doesn't matter what the house edge is on a game, what matters is what kind of edge you can get out of the game.

this is without a doubt the probable cause of what limits most AP's;...lack of knowing there's more information out there..

[mofungoo]

What can limit some APs is the belief that BJ is the only game that can be beaten. Better opportunities exist on occasion.

[greg16394]

Lack of information. All the books will only teach the so called AP to win using 16 to 1 spread at 6D tables. But the game can be beat handily even with much lower spread. It is just that people know how like to keep it a secret from the public. The 1% AP needs the 99% AP to contribute to casinos as well as the ploppites do in order for the 1% to succeed. If everyone was a winner, the casino would stop offering the game. Right now both the dark side and the light side want to keep the game as it is. The ploppies do ploppies do. The 99% AP are taught and use a clumsy tool (big spread) that casinos can easily detect and ban them if they show they can use the clumsy tool well. But the 1% that knows the better way will be always in a safe place to win. Ask T3 and ZenMaster. I myself fought hard to obtain the secret. Once I was considering sharing the secret, but I realize the consequence would be that casinos just shut down the currently balanced game once BJ can be easily beaten by average Joe with some training.

I tried to PM to you to get just a slice of this secret, but are not subscribed.

[greg16394]

I touched on this earlier but didn't have time to write a longer post. Romes said it too......


Don't be scared to play -EV games due to scouting. If the only games you play are +EV, then that means it's already been figured out -- you're a day late and a dollar short. Some of the best plays I've ever been on (and am currently playing) have a HE as little as 3% to as large as 10% (but MY EDGE is somewhere between 5% to 15% typically, but sometimes up to 80-90% advantage). It doesn't matter what the house edge is on a game, what matters is what kind of edge you can get out of the game.

I am belong to 99% for sure. (By BJGenious)
I don't play side bet which slows speed, HE is 3% which is 6 times of 0.5% BJ.
But, while I was losing $500, I saw three players up and leave table with playing that side bet.
I will consider to play it.

[BoSox]

Lack of information. All the books will only teach the so called AP to win using 16 to 1 spread at 6D tables. But the game can be beat handily even with much lower spread.

I agree.
I am sorry both of these quotes are from BJ Genius 007 in post #8

The 99% AP are taught and use a clumsy tool (big spread) that casinos can easily detect and ban them if they show they can use the clumsy tool well.

If you want to lump together the remaining 99% of AP's,(that do not play the same way that you do) ALL into the same category, that is your prerogative, but it is flat out wrong. Why would you even think that, unless you are deliberately trying to downgrade and insult people? As you already know,there are many ways to get the job done, and please do not think for one second that all of the other 99% just go by the book. You often come across as very uppity and condescending at the same time, which is rather unbecoming.