Hi, I ran a sim for SD for the Complete Zen Count using sweet 16 and the average EV was only about $8/hr spreading $25-$75 2 handed. This is drastically different than I get using the other counts that I've tried. I could understand if it was only a few dollars different but this difference doesn't make sense.
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You should be adding a few indices at a time. When you hit the 50 most important indices you may choose to stop. It really helps lower your RoR and will increase optimal bets at the same RoR. I learn them all. You never know when you will use them. Many you know will rarely ever be used but you get that crazy count early in a shoe and you will most likely make many bets with the rare deck composition before it is either shuffled away or the cards balance to a more normal situation. I was playing heads up and hit a deck composition about 2 decks in that with my 2 count system I knew I would play more hands at this bizarre deck composition during this shoe than I would expect to play in years of play. I was glad I knew those rarely used indices. It really greatly increased my EV for the shoe that already had a huge EV. I can't remember how it actually went so it was probably not far off of EV.Originally Posted by Banjoclan
A game that generates $8 / hr. with $25 minimum bets is
certainly not worth any play at all.
$8 is 1/3 of a unit. Your e.v. should be, at the least, 1 unit / hr.
2 units per hour [$50] with $25 units is generally a good game.
My ZEN skills paid my bills for many many years.
Yes, I don't exactly know what went wrong. I did another sim and I unclicked the "multiple deck" option using the "complete zen count" which I've been told is the original zen count, not the one with the true edge version. After I ran it like this it's now giving me $54.17. It's getting a bit late so I'll revisit it tomorrow, but I really can't see why it would give me such a low EV for this.
I guess players like Zee, that don't want to make the slightest effort to start increasing EV and controlling swings, don't learn more indices. But for everyone else this is the first step toward higher EV's and more palatable swings. It is so easy anyone can do it. Anyone halfway serious about the game should know more indices than the I18/fab4. I really don't see any reason to stop adding until you have at least around 50 indices. After that it depends on your count. You can choose not to use the indices but you should know them. To me not knowing more is like randomly missing cards while you count. Who would choose to do that? Learning more indices is the easiest thing for players to do.
This is were our opinions differ. If you will only ever do 1 tweak I agree but if you are planning many tweaks separated by some time the compound effect is a part of what you are planning. I guess the trouble I have is some of the less savvy at math would see three 15% gains as a 45% gain in total and may have dismissed each on it's own 15% gain but the truth is it's over a 52% gain over were you started. Some of these gains are 50%+ gains. With three prior 15% gains that 50% gain is actually more like an 80% gain compared to your starting point. So if you didn't dismiss the 3 small 15% gains that big gains of 50%+ that you viewed as worth it is now worth over 78% of were you are without the other tweaks instead of 50% because the whole is 52% larger. Now those other small tweaks are worth 52% in aggregate and have any further tweak gaining a percentage of 152% instead of 100%. So how is it not relevant. You dismiss the small tweaks but had you not dismissed them your whole would be much larger and that large percentage increase you view as worth it is now a percentage gain of a much larger whole making that tweak worth a lot more money. Things don't happen in a vacuum.
It is like developing indices what you do with some decisions affect other decisions. If you used the same logic generating indices they would be a lot less efficient. Everything works together. I am not making up the compound effect. It is real and needs to be considered as you choose whether or not a tweak is worth it. If you know it will be your last tweak it maybe not worth it but if it is your first every tweak after it will be worth more in a snowball effect. Basically the 9% tweak for going to near full indices from I18/fab4 is worth 9% now and an additional 9% for every tweak that comes after it (or before it but that is already figured into the now). If you know you will be doing a lot of tweaks and/or some big ones that needs to be considered in your overall plan and affects the value of the small tweak you are currently considering. At any time that tweak is worth 9% of the whole. As your game evolves by tweaking it that whole grows making the dollar amount of the 9% increase or any other tweak constantly growing with every tweak. The same is true for muting swings.
So in summary if you decide the 3 small tweaks aren't worth the effort the big tweak of 50% is with 64% of what it could have been worth (78%) in terms of dollars. That is real money and real added swing moderation.
I guess I'm less savvy at math. I see no reason to believe three tweaks of 15% is above, below, or the same as 45%. It is unknown until measured.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Well you have a point about unknown until measured but a more accurate statement would be:
I see no reason to believe three tweaks of 15% is above, below, or the same as 52%. It is unknown until measured. The expected gain of 3 tweaks is not the sum of the gains, 15% + 15% +15% =45%, but rather a 15% gain for each tweak of the new hole, 1*1.15*1.15*1.15 = 1.520875 subtract 1 for the original whole and you get 52.0875% gain for the three tweaks combined. Now sim results may vary but if they do the gain for at least 1 tweak was not actually 15% of the new whole.
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