Insurance brings the heat

[shake]

Most all players these days know not to take insurance. I rarely see anyone buying insurance. Insuring that seven with a huge bet out looks pretty suspicious. Would a heat adverse strategy to insure all 20's be worth it or would you completly throw away your edge on the insurance bet? How much does it cost to always take even money on blackjack? How about 12vs 2 How much does it cost you if you stand pat on 75% of these plays. I've notice over the years people have tightened up their basic strategy but i still see a lot of standing on 12v2, and especially 12v3. Funny i never see anyone hit 12v4,5,6 even though this is a marginal play.

[Norm]

See https://blackjackincolor.com/cardcountingcover6.htm

[shake]

Thanks this is very helpful. I dont understand score and how it relates to overall percentages. If my house advantage is 1% with no cover what does it become if i use cover 3, or cover 4 in a 2 deck shoe. is it going to cost me 1/100 of my advantage or is it more like 1/10th of my advantage??? thanks

[Three]

Thanks this is very helpful. I dont understand score and how it relates to overall percentages

SCORE = 1,000,000/n0. So in essence n0 and SCORE are the same stat just presented differently. SCORE is the EV for a certain set of standard parameters. They keep RoR, BR and spread at constants. If DonS's original constants are not used there should be some qualifying nomenclature to indicate other constants are used, like c-SCORE or some other thing. Bare minimum at least indicate what BR, RoR and spread your "SCORE" is for if you don't use the standards.

The standards:
BR: $10,000
RoR: 13.5%
Single deck: 1-3 spread
Double deck: 1-6 spread
6 Deck: 1-12 spread

You are free to use other parameters to generate an EV which would be the "SCORE" but you are misleading people if you don't state the parameter changes or use a different nomenclature to indicate your "SCORE" didn't use the standards.

[Romes]

If the HE on your blackjack game is 1%, you need to find another blackjack game because that is just awful. Are you playing 6:5?

At the end of the day I think it comes down a bit to confidence as well. Just confidently make your plays (hitting 12v2/3, taking insurance, etc). I see many ploppies take insurance all the time (when they shouldn't be). Or you can always mention how the dealers "promote" taking even money... well that's insurance that they're promoting. Just this past weekend I had a dealer telling me "Even money isn't insurance!" When I snickered and asked what it was then, he said "Yeah what would I know, I just deal here."

Bottom line, people are dumb. Don't ever lose out on EV just because you "think" they'll notice. If you have real heat, that's another story, but until then, confidently make the correct plays.

[shake]

If the HE on your blackjack game is 1%, you need to find another blackjack game because that is just awful. Are you playing 6:5?

At the end of the day I think it comes down a bit to confidence as well. Just confidently make your plays (hitting 12v2/3, taking insurance, etc). I see many ploppies take insurance all the time (when they shouldn't be). Or you can always mention how the dealers "promote" taking even money... well that's insurance that they're promoting. Just this past weekend I had a dealer telling me "Even money isn't insurance!" When I snickered and asked what it was then, he said "Yeah what would I know, I just deal here."

Bottom line, people are dumb. Don't ever lose out on EV just because you "think" they'll notice. If you have real heat, that's another story, but until then, confidently make the correct plays.

Sorry I should have said if im playing with a advantage of 1%. I just think insurance has brought me a lot of heat. I've never used insurance cover and i've been backed off many times. I havent really played much because of this for the last 5-8 years, i want to start playing again and i need to travel far to play so i will need to camp out 3-4 hours plus at the tables to make it worth while. I will definately have a different approach with cover this time around, but i need maximize ev.

[Three]

I find the difference between insure all BJ's (Cover 1) and always insure BJ while increasing index to +5 (Cover 4) to be interesting. To me insuring all BJ's and always insuring BJ is the same thing. Am I wrong? That means not insuring until +5 as a risk/heat averse move causes an increase in bets large enough to overcome the lose of SCORE to suboptimal play by a considerable amount.

Now the heat averse play I have always been told to use is insure BJ in positive true counts (index TC +1). Insure a few really strong hands (20, 11, and 19 although I am not sure the doubles should belong in this group) slightly below the index (1 TC below). Moderate hands at the index (18, 10 and 9. 11 probably belong here due to uncertainty of what your results will be but the EV is high enough to be in the other group. There is value to the smoother ride of waiting on uncertain results. Remember you lose 2 bets and the BJ bet if you get a crappy card and the dealer makes a hand) at the index. All other hands significantly above the index (Like 2 TC above the index, varies by the count you use). This tends to smooth the ride and has significant cover value and as Norm's chart indicates allows for bigger bets with the same RoR. The very certain wins at slightly below the index smooths the ride. Insuring BJ has no variance and the others listed to take insurance 1 TC below the index are very likely wins. This means if you lose the BJ you will win the main bet most of the time. Losing both makes for large swings. There is the play for optimal EV. There is the play for optimal BR growth (this type of play controls swings). There is the play for the best cover (heat averse). And there is the play that is risk averse. All of these factors should be considered when deciding how to use the insurance bet.

[shake]

Good post, I dont know if i could stomach taking even money in a negative count. Same with insuring a solid hand 19-20,although it would probably be a small bet out. Maybe insuring for less is a good approach.

[Three]

Maybe insuring for less is a good approach.

This may be some of the best cover insurance.

[stopgambling]

Some places are very heaty and suspicious on people insuring bad hands. I sometimes had to give up insurance on some of these hands . I think one should factor all the other aspect of the game and make a plan of how to play at certain casino. I would give up insurance on some hands for better pen. The list goes on and on. Play "poker" with the pit and the eye,play bj with the house . Don't underestimate your opponents.

[blackjackomaha]

I hit two correct, favorable insurance calls yesterday. Next shoe, I was half-shoed, and almost immediately after the round began, I was asked for ID and a player's card. This was before any major spread, as well. Some depends on the attitudes and mindsets of the shift, their tolerance levels, etc. It's all part of the game.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

How I handle Insurance ~ for Cover and for Risk Aversion.

Utilizing Hi-Lo T.C.'s (for clarity)

At +3 and above I take (full) Insurance.

At +2 I take (full) Insurance on 21, 20, 19, 11

At T.C. +1 I take ("Insurance for less") -- generally 1/4+ of my bet.

At ZERO (0) or below I take ""Insurance for less") -- generally 1/8+ of my bet.

[Freightman]

How I handle Insurance ~ for Cover and for Risk Aversion.

Utilizing Hi-Lo T.C.'s (for clarity)

At +2 I take (full) Insurance on 21, 20, 19, 11

Your 21 has to be a blackjack since your insurance decision is made with only 2 cards. Even money on blackjack at +2? Now, I can see, if allowed, to take even money on blackjack and to take insurance at some monster count. Just clarifying