Losing streak analysis

**mickeymouse** · 12-22-2015, 09:42 PM

Some preliminary statistical data on losing streak:

Consecutive sessions lost: 9
Hours played: 25
Estimated hands played: 2500

Total result: -$7,075

Best session: -$65
Worst session: -$1990

Trip bustouts: 3 of 9 (including last 2 consecutively)

Theoretical EV/100: $30 (approx.)
Theoretical SD/100: $420 (approx.)
Theoretical win rate: 1.0%
Actual win rate: -9.4%

I have not played another session in the meantime.

**Three** · 12-23-2015, 02:12 AM

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

Trip bustouts: 3 of 9 (including last 2 consecutively)

Busting out on a trip should be very very rare. This is due to the fact that you should never start a shoe unless you have the money left to finish it. Having to walk away from a big advantage because you lost all your money really hurts your theoretical hourly. If you think your EV was $30/100 and busted out 1/3rd of the trips you may have actually been playing with closer to 0 EV. You should never start a shoe unless you have the money left to withstand the largest downswing you ever had within a shoe. You really want more than that amount.

**mickeymouse** · 12-23-2015, 03:50 AM

The theoretical chance of a trip bustout at my betting stakes is very low. Historically it happens much, much more rarely.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 12-23-2015, 05:59 AM

IF your (so-called) "trip bankroll" is getting busted-out, your TBR is too small.

**Three** · 12-23-2015, 07:27 PM

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

The theoretical chance of a trip bustout at my betting stakes is very low. Historically it happens much, much more rarely.

You may be missing the point. You should bring sufficient funds to not have to quit during a trip. If you don't have enough left to play through a hot shoe that is a nightmare you don't play anymore and leave with some money. I have never busted a trip BR. One time I gad every dollar on me bet on the felt. It was a moderate ramped bet but I split to 12 hands (unlimited splitting) and had several doubles. i could have needed 3 times that if it were a max bet situation. I had 2 stiffs and the rest were really strong hands. Fortunately the dealer was nice enough to bust so I doubled my money on that round. After that I brought far more money on any trip. My BR was modest at the time so for a while I brought the entire $10K'ish BR.

There are plenty of good reasons to end a trip. Running out of money shouldn't be one of them. I brought about $11K for a 3 day trip and lost over $7K in the first 20 minutes. I hit a great shoe heads up and had several rounds of max bet, max splits with doubles all swept by the dealer and could hardly win a hand. I came out ahead for that trip but I was a little concerned after that shoe.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 12-24-2015, 07:09 AM

To me ... "trip bankroll" is a concept that I dislike, as it leads players to carry too little cash.

Since 1992, as an A.P., I have never "busted-out" a trip bankroll; as my TBR is always huge.

**Banjoclan** · 12-24-2015, 08:19 AM

Do you ever use a big bank chain so you can just withdraw money in the city you plan on staying at?

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**Banjoclan** · 12-24-2015, 08:20 AM

Originally Posted by Tthree

Busting out on a trip should be very very rare. This is due to the fact that you should never start a shoe unless you have the money left to finish it. Having to walk away from a big advantage because you lost all your money really hurts your theoretical hourly. If you think your EV was $30/100 and busted out 1/3rd of the trips you may have actually been playing with closer to 0 EV. You should never start a shoe unless you have the money left to withstand the largest downswing you ever had within a shoe. You really want more than that amount.

Is there a way to sim this ahead of time?

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**Stealth** · 12-24-2015, 08:39 AM

Originally Posted by Banjoclan

Is there a way to sim this ahead of time?

Sure, CVCX will give you those answers.

For the lone wolf this is easily solved by doing the sim and follow trip RoR for guidance, and ultimately, taking more money as ZMF suggest.

For a team, the issue becomes much more complex and must be dealt with at a whole different level.

**mickeymouse** · 12-24-2015, 08:37 PM

Carrying excess cash will doubtless lead to your money being stolen, defeating the purpose of playing.

**Three** · 12-24-2015, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by mickeymouse

Carrying excess cash will doubtless lead to your money being stolen, defeating the purpose of playing.

Or a dead would be thief for an AP that believes in preparation. As long as you are prepared and alert you will do fine. The same is true at the tables.

**stopgambling** · 12-24-2015, 10:45 PM

For 2500 rounds you lost $7500 .something does not make sense to me.Sure it can happen but i hear these kind of thing happens to you a lot . I thought I would seldom lose the count and not by much . After playing for a long hours and testing my self out I found out I was so wrong. Test yourself out for 20-30 6 deck shoes at a decent speed and see what happens.

**Three** · 12-25-2015, 05:56 AM

I have recommended testing yourself immediately after you finish playing for the day to see how you do. I din't think anyone headed the advice but it seems some should have. People use a system and think they don't have to drill anymore. This is especially true with people using a simple count. They think it is so easy they can't make mistakes. But anyone that gets complacent can fall into this trap. I found particular times of day to be my stumbling stone. My brain takes a siesta in the mid afternoon.