How can I open an investigation?

[ZeeBabar]

Also agree. Winning most sessions is not only a poor goal -- it is probably a negative, long run goal.

I have to look at the 'skew' of sessions some time. I have always assumed that a straight-counter with short sessions should have a majority of losing sessions, but larger winning sessions for an overall gain.

See Skewness.

in the evolution of a straight counter, initially, it's the other way around. You leave happily with small wins but cannot help chasing losses so the winning sessions are more, the losing sessions are fewer but the losses greater. Looking at my records, I won more sessions and averaged about $500 per winning session, but the sessions I lost, I played a bit longer and chased the losses, ending up with larger losses.

A struggle in the evolution of a straight counter is the need to have a winning session because of psychological reasons. Thus, many rationalize that there is no heat and that they can get back to even or a slight win, to at least have made the cost of the trip to the casino.

[ZeeBabar]

Mr. ZeeBabar, you are making some progress. Congratulations, keep it up.

Thanks Bear. I might be making progress but in fact, after a first year where I won almost $20k (playing part time), I am barely even as my second year comes to a close. I think my game is getting better, thanks to all of you but the luck/variance has not been with me.

Retiring soon and looking forward to playing more, learning more. I still have to work on the psychological aspects (feelings after losing sessions, euphoria after winning sessions, thoughts of quitting after a $2k loss, thoughts of spending money after a win), go beyond I-18, be more selective, etc. I play the only poor single deck game in local casino and know it's not worth it to play with 3-4 other guys, resent folks joining in and 4-5 spots being played but resisting from exiting when this happens.

[TeamMoney]

Well, so far no one answered my question. I dont need advice why im thinking this way, i understand the game and the variance behind it. I dont care for that advice, i know the deal. The point is, there's a suspicion of mine about this store and I want to have it investigated. Any thoughts on how to accomplish this?

[Three]

You can do a statistical analysis after counting down many shoes if all you want is to know for your own satisfaction. If you are looking to build a case before some authority, sadly they tend to be too stupid to understand such analysis. You need an expert and the other side will pay an expert to cloud the statistical waters. If you know anything about statistics you know a good statistician can find a way to make any study support any position. Then you have the idiot of authority not knowing who to believe because he can't understand any of it. Good luck with that.

Probably your best chance is steal the full shoe and get busted and have the cops impound the shoe as evidence. Then the cards can be counted by rank and any impropriety exposed. All you need is a cop on hand to arrest you before the casino takes the shoe and does whatever they want with it. LOL

[Cougfan]

Well, so far no one answered my question. I dont need advice why im thinking this way, i understand the game and the variance behind it. I dont care for that advice, i know the deal. The point is, there's a suspicion of mine about this store and I want to have it investigated. Any thoughts on how to accomplish this?

If you want to personally investigate the matter for your own knowledge, then count down a bunch of shoes to detect a material case of decks being altered. Hire ex-cheats to observe the dealers' motion and detect anyone dealing seconds on a pitch game. Steal a few shoes and inspect them for alterations, additions of peeking devices, etc. Or you could kidnap the son of the casino owner and hold the kid until his dad admits they are cheating and refunds all of your losses. IANAL, but some of this may be illegal in some jurisdictions, so make sure you consult with a lawyer before proceeding.

There is no good that can come from a formal investigation. That said, just call the state gaming commission and tell them your concerns. Make sure you tell them that you are sure the casino is cheating because you keep losing every time you go. I am sure that they never hear this from any casino patron and that they will jump right on it. To be fair, you should also ask them to open an investigation against you if there are places where you have had an unlikely run of winning sessions since you are probably cheating at those places.

[ZeeBabar]

I suppose you could call or write to the state gaming commission but you will have to be more specific. Stuff like you believe they have removed a few Aces and Tens, as a result you have more positive counts, bet more but the BJ's don't happen and the tens never come out.

The gaming commission should not be be upset that you count cards, you will have some credibility because you are an accomplished counter, that you did count down dozens of shoes, the count is often or mostly positive and indicative of big cards being removed.

Course, you could also say you suspect the dealer(s), provide shift and times and maybe they will get videos of the dealer in action.

[Ryemo]

Well, so far no one answered my question. I dont need advice why im thinking this way, i understand the game and the variance behind it. I dont care for that advice, i know the deal. The point is, there's a suspicion of mine about this store and I want to have it investigated. Any thoughts on how to accomplish this?

I don't think anyone has answered your question because most of the people reading your original post probably don't believe the casino is cheating. The risk just wouldn't be worth the reward (for the casino). 99% of the patrons play blackjack poorly enough as it is. Add that with the combination of high house-edge side bets; believe me, the casino doesn't need to cheat to extract money from the public.

Your only evidence of foul play is based on a history of multiple losing sessions. But how many hours have you actually put into this store? You're most likely experiencing negative variance and nothing more. You'll need to come up with something much better than "I keep losing money at the casino" if you want to open an investigation on the casino.

[Stealth]

Over the course of 3,000 "sessions" of blackjack by a team they experienced a "session win rate" of 54%. There actual win rate was 79% of EV. Winning 20 in a row is a unicorn.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I had won 17 sequential high stakes sessions before getting trespassed,

but that was at Foxwoods long ago, when their games were matchless.

[Three]

I had 17 in a row and decided I needed to log some losses to assure I didn't end up getting 86'ed. I adjusted my departure points to make sure as I win more easily that I don't get flagged as a threat.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

The Pit Boss may be lazy; seeing that your cumulative win is large BUT

the list of results indicates that you have lost 25%-35% of your sessions;

but it will take a much closer look to parse out the fact that your losing

sessions were a fraction the magnitude of the winning sessions. I fully

agree that to purposely quit while losing a trivial sum, and not returning

to play until you are well into the following shift is certainly a fine tactic.

[TeamMoney]

Over the course of 3,000 "sessions" of blackjack by a team they experienced a "session win rate" of 54%. There actual win rate was 79% of EV. Winning 20 in a row is a unicorn.

Not sure what you mean. I won about 20 trrips consecutively at this store. Doesnt mean I won every shoe I played, what I mean is after the usually 5 or 6 hours that I stay there counting(probably staying too long but i dont care as there is no heat) I come out ahead. If it wasnt for this particular store that I said is cheating, my last 35 trips to casinos, ive won around 33 of the 35

[TeamMoney]

20 in a row? Very rare. Unless $5 is considered a win or loss.

I dont mean every shoe as a session. Im talking about each trip whether it was a winning trip or losing trip. 5 or 6 hour trips at a time.