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Thread: Continuing to lose and probabilities

  1. #27


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    i got beaten pretty bad the few days ,my winning of 2 months is gone in 2 days. the thing is I am still ahead EV wise. It does hurt .I am still bothered by the swing , but i think i should look at my results in 200-400 hours wise. i did make a couple of mistakes during losing which show me where i am weak at. it is a wake up call. so losing does have an effect on some of us i believe. of course everyone else is just playing a solid game (error free) except me.

  2. #28


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    i got beaten pretty bad the few days ,my winning of 2 months is gone in 2 days. the thing is I am still ahead EV wise. It does hurt .I am still bothered by the swing , but i think i should look at my results in 200-400 hours wise. i did make a couple of mistakes during losing which show me where i am weak at. it is a wake up call. so losing does have an effect on some of us i believe. of course everyone else is just playing a solid game (error free) except me.
    You lost, kept records, and analyzed the loss. As long as u learned, this is turning negatives into positives. Not bad.

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by stopgambling View Post
    i got beaten pretty bad the few days ,my winning of 2 months is gone in 2 days. the thing is I am still ahead EV wise. It does hurt .I am still bothered by the swing , but i think i should look at my results in 200-400 hours wise. i did make a couple of mistakes during losing which show me where i am weak at. it is a wake up call. so losing does have an effect on some of us i believe. of course everyone else is just playing a solid game (error free) except me.
    Yep - one thing I forgot to mention in my story -

    After losing the "coup de grace" hand (9 v. 4 double down), I walked away from a still highly positive count. That was the only mistake I made tonight...

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    Yep - one thing I forgot to mention in my story -

    After losing the "coup de grace" hand (9 v. 4 double down), I walked away from a still highly positive count. That was the only mistake I made tonight...
    Bad one.

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post

    IF permitted, the rules will be poor as a rule.

    IF the game is 8 decks with H17 the player

    edge with a Hi-Lo +2 TC is just 0.34%

    Yuck. Betting an average of $100 nets

    all of 34 cents a hand played! At 20

    hands per hour that is $6.80

    Have fun.
    This is misleading. He played at TC +2, +3, +4, +5 and more. Yes, he has only the slight advantage at TC +2 if it is H17 game. But he will make much more when TC becomes higher.

  6. #32


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Bad one.
    Yep - but there is no shortage of high counts at this game for whenever I return...

  7. #33


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    I have walked away on a relatively high count and betting opposite to it Lol. for a good reason. I hope i can get those games but they never last.

  8. #34
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    Yes
    ~ but he may walk around for hours without playing, so that he gets very few hands

    to play; or the casino is too crowded, or so empty that his strategy far too obvious, etc.

  9. #35


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    Tthree, it would be more helpful if you could just close your mouth and leave it closed, instead of continuing to belittle and demean my intelligence in front of this forum. If you can be a genius and have a photographic memory in terms of maintaining a side count of aces then good for you. I just don't have the mental capabilities, despite scoring 140 on the WAIS. Even if I did, I would lose money by not being able to play as many hands. Neither do I have the time to practice 5 hours a day to get to that level with my day job and career. Even if I did, I would have to factor it into time taken and therefore adjust the denominator of my hourly rate calculation accordingly, slashing it significantly. It's as simple as that. If you don't like me just ignore me. Don't waste your precious energy demeaning me online.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  10. #36
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    I'm having a great year. I will put up my
    figures when New Years Eve looms large.
    I had just one very bad losing week.


  11. #37
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    There is also the opposite of that where at TC+4 or more you are winning every hand with fat bets out there and can seem to do no wrong, doing it twice in one day between two different places even. This goes in unpredictable streaks just like losses and you start to feel bulletproof or invincible after a while. It all comes crashing back to earth when you have a few weeks of winning on your minimum bets in negative counts and losing on your larger bets in positive counts or just losing every hand and getting lousy cards no matter what the count is doing. Maybe you just caught one of those cycles of getting your ass kicked is all but still it wouldn't hurt to review your play, a self-critique due to the abnormal variance.

    I don't play Spanish21, or at least not yet as I haven't studied it to have any proficiency at it. It's like starting at TC-4.2 off the top of the shoe and the fun doesn't stop there with a 12 taco bonus for an 8 card 21, etc.! I had it in mind to learn this game but haven't gotten around to it. Tthree is the most knowledgeable person I know on this game and the first person I'd go to for information on it since he's thoroughly dissected it, played it, all that. With that being the case, I don't see myself telling Tthree to shut up and get out of my face until at least after I've gotten the complete set of indices and other information I'd want. I would want to adapt my count to it, quite an undertaking but completely necessary if I wish to learn how to attain the 12 taco bonus!
    Last edited by Tarzan; 12-01-2015 at 10:30 AM.

  12. #38


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    Meanwhile, I resized my spread, reduced risk, won back 2k in two sessions. Doomsday is still a long way off and one should probably continue paying the rent.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  13. #39


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    At least in theory, side counting aces and using a balanced main count is a valid option.

    I actually tried doing this for two shoes on a full table and with an extremely slow dealer the other day, standing behind the table and not actually betting. In practice, it is virtually next to impossible. And it led to lots of situations where the appropriate bets were big.... quite early in the shoe. I'm sure if I practiced many hours, it would be easier, but I do not feel that I would ever get to the fluency and effortlessness of my normal regime.

    In an ideal world, we would develop level-11 counts based on the exact EOR for every card. Unfortunately, unless you are an absolute savant, it is not possible.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

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