Continuing to lose and probabilities

[Freightman]

Tag

I saw the new Rocky movie ~ "CREED"

It is certainly far better than most of the

preceding films of he "Rocky" franchise.

My son and I also enjoyed it - answered some old questions as well

[metronome]

Sorry 'bout the detour but:
Freightman, I got ya beat, it'll be 41 come Feb.
but I could not have penned a better synopsis of how important she is to you. Thanks
Just knowing you get to travel the path together brings a peace and contentment that's hard to describe.

Now if I can get her to learn real VP strategy....

[dharmaprija]

I've been reading the back and forth between you and T3. I haven't been here in over a year but T3 has some of the best advice available on this site and I would urge you to listen closely and adhere tightly. He is a good person and brilliant at the AP info. Just my two cents.

[dharmaprija]

Haven't been here in a while T3, I used to bug you for advice, but it's truly great to see that you are still blessing the world with your genius caliber advice. I look forward to possibly getting an opportunity to once again bug you for advice.

[dharmaprija]

I wish I could tell my stories of woe with you guys but I haven't had anything you would call a losing streak for over a year and a half. I have had some losses and 1 or 2 fairly big losses but they don't clump and winning is steady and comes easy. I have worked really hard to get to these results and I have recently and still am implementing some more changes to further steady the swings. Is the insanely hard stuff I do worth it, the early results of about a year would seem to be a resounding yes. These are the types of results that the off the market counts often have. I am sure Tarzan avoids most of the bad variance woes for the most part as well. I sure hope things continue like this but it will take years to get statistically significant results. Hopefully my results will prove a representative sampling of the true long term. But maybe I am just living a charmed life right now. I will enjoy the ride as long as it lasts. Hopefully it will never end.

It is funny. Things used to seem a steady down drift with jumps in winnings to offset things enough to show a profit. Now things are more of a steady grind upward with few large swings in either direction. Fortunately the positive large swings are far more frequent than the negative large swings. The software can't calculate n0 yet but my friend keeps upgrading it. I was using a recent upgrade to make my bet ramp stronger. Now it is based on the kelly optimal bet for each bin instead of the advantage for each bin. Things changed quite a bit. 29 TC pair bins were bet more aggressively while 2 TC pair bins were bet less aggressively. Those results are a really, really small sampling but very encouraging. The ride seems to just get smoother and smoother. Each tweak for a smoother ride also increases EV.

It is interesting, I spent a couple days messing with the kelly optimal betting boundaries and had not found a betting matrix I liked concerning ease of memorization and ability to confuse the adversary. I thought this is silly. I haven't learned anything from all this data yet. I changed the goal of what I was doing from finding the perfect ramp to learning something from the new data and a few hours later I had a ramp I was satisfied with plus I learned a lot about how kelly optimal betting affects my betting matrix.

I was considering helping Mickey with a custom count for his game but he told me to shut up. It would have been an interesting problem that I would have learned a lot from. No need to send me the detailed rules. I am not going through all the effort of analyzing what counts and advanced techniques would be strongest for someone that is not only shows a lack of gratitude when you try to help them but is also hostile. Besides it could take months and he is into quick fixes. It would have been a fun mental exercise. I am sure I could tame the wild variance of the game he is playing. It would just take time. There would have been several options of attack for different skill levels. He is not ready for the easiest one yet.

When you want help it doesn't pay to be rude to the few that actually can help you. Recently someone went after DogHand when he asked questions he would need to do what was asked. I don't remember if Dog did the work or not but I wouldn't blame him if he didn't.

If you would like a fun mental exercise I have a TERRIBLE game close to me that I have always been curious about. It will prove absolutely elementary to you but I simply would like to know the house advantage based on the EVIL rules and ANTE of my nearby games. I don't know if I still have PM's anymore so it may be a matter of me publicly giving the info on here. I hate to be that specific but the store odds are SO devilish they really need to be exposed. Let me know.

[ZeeBabar]

Ante? Stay away.

Half of winning is setting yourself up with a good chance to win before you place a bet. Once you can show up at a casino and leave after not playing a hand because conditions are not good then you have shown the discipline to win consistently. There are a lot of aspects to it that are lesser concerns like the system you use, the number of indices but the biggest thing in your control is to avoid crappy games that don't fit your style of attack. Shitty pen, bad rules and crowding are things that should typically be avoided at all costs except for certain styles of attack. Antes and 6:5 are things you should just refuse to play. You give yourself little chance to win and expose yourself as trying to beat such games invariably involve being more obvious.

tthree, this is really the best advice. Too often, I have driven 2-3 hours to a casino, conditions were not right (crowded tables) but I got a seat and tried to play or I sat at a good DD game, played heads us but within 5 minutes, 3-4 others goin the table and the game is no longer viable butvI stayed. It's hard if the next casino is 20 miles away, the weather is crappy and cold, to walk away.

[BoSox]

Ante? Stay away.

Half of winning is setting yourself up with a good chance to win before you place a bet. Once you can show up at a casino and leave after not playing a hand because conditions are not good then you have shown the discipline to win consistently. There are a lot of aspects to it that are lesser concerns like the system you use, the number of indices but the biggest thing in your control is to avoid crappy games that don't fit your style of attack. Shitty pen, bad rules and crowding are things that should typically be avoided at all costs except for certain styles of attack. Antes and 6:5 are things you should just refuse to play. You give yourself little chance to win and expose yourself as trying to beat such games invariably involve being more obvious.

Nothing more needed to add excellent post Tthree.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"I have driven 2-3 hours to a casino, conditions were not right (crowded tables) but I got a seat and tried to play or I sat at a good DD game, played heads us but within 5 minutes, 3-4 others goin the table and the game is no longer viable but I stayed. It's hard if the next casino is 20 miles away."[/COLOR]

"Game Selection" is of paramount importance. You are describing "gambling."

If you actually enjoy playing casinos games, then you are actually "gambling."

Under the circumstances that you have described, if you are unwilling to leave,

then why do you not simply play for (actual) minimal stakes ? I have a strong

hunch that you have few, if any, alternative avocations to keep life pleasurable.