Day 13: At home I keep running simulations in Powersim to see my theoretical EV under different conditions and penetrations so I can decide what games I am willing to accept. There is more sophisticated simulation software but Powersim is freely available and does the job for a beginner like me.
Back downtown at the Golden Nugget saying my mantra: I'm playing with a big variance and an upside drift. BJ can be frustrating sometimes... The tables are full and I'm spreading 15-70 for 50 minutes and make 80 $. So maybe the path goes up from zero this time. At the EC I first stroll over the floor. On a SD table a young African guy makes wild spreads. He jumps his bet from 10 to 100 $ and back several times. A counter? A PB comes over and eyes him. He wins a few hundred Dollars within seconds. Before I can back-count him a buddy of his comes over and drags him off. If these were APs they were really slick and fast...
At my table a player has got a BS card and is entertaining the whole table with it when they discuss BS. I insist that this cannot possibly work.
Me: You know who wrote "the book"? It's the casinos! ...why else would they sell you these cards?
Dealer: You seem a bit paranoid.
Me: I'm not paranoid ...but you never know!
The count goes up to +30 and I lose several max bets. I'm spreading from 5 - 70 $, sometimes with 2 hands of 35 while the dealer shouts checks play so often. The PBs don't care, maybe because I give them the girlfriend story when they offer me a players card. Instead they get annoyed by a ploppy who says "We used to get beads for every BJ earlier, where do we get these beds from now?"
PB brushes him off dryly: "Go to Fremont street." I only make 25 $, but after yesterday I don't want to push my luck and drop out after 60 minutes.
Day 14: Excalibur: There is only one decent DD table. At the same time people are flocking to 6:5 tables with CSMs that have otherwise the same rules. It is said business has become tougher for the casinos in the last years since the public got more educated and plays more BS. When I see this here I'm convinced this must be a myth - the public never seemed more stupid. At first the pen is a marvelous 75 %, however after a good streak the dealer suddenly cuts back to 50 %. I hint him to go deeper but he apologizes that he "can't". Is the PB giving me an evil look? Not sure if he signaled the dealer by a pad on the back or if it's just a coincidence. I leave shortly after 330 $ richer (15-80 spread for 30 minutes).
Day 15: WildWildWest: The casino and 6D table is pretty empty. At the same time the seats at the 2D table are completely filled with young ladies all in dark skirts and white blouses. I had burst right into their auditioning. No audition for APs though, I leave quickly wishing them the best of luck.
Green Valley Station: The PB offers me a players card so I report of the impending trouble with my girlfriend.
Me (whispering): I shouldn't even be here. But if you don't tell... You know what they say - what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
PB: But we're not in Vegas, we are in Henderson!
We share a great laugh and he let's me unmolestedly lose 90 $ during 2 hours of play (5-50 spread).
Day 16: Palace Station: A player does a lot of side bets "push the dealer" that pay 10:1. Apart from this his play is plainly horrible. You can read on the net that certain side bets are heavily exploitable (different side bets have different degrees of "exploitability"). But no real AP would play such a terrible BS if he had a glimpse of honor in him. While I play strictly by the count for 2 hours I lose 130 $ while this ploppy wins side bet after side bet and leaves with 400 $ profit. In the end I console myself that the casino will take back everything and a bit more from him eventually.
Excalibur: It's evening, they raked the table min to 25 $ and the pen is not so great. On a high count a patron wants to join the table so I ask him to wait for the next deck "for good luck" and he agrees happily. When I wong out soon after on a low count he goes ballistic because I am now destroying "the order of the cards", something I had just asked him to refrain from. With a minimal profit I eject soon after because who needs stress on top of mediocre conditions.
I proceed southwards to touch the Luxor. The DD table is very full and the pen here seems mediocre today as well so next:
Mandalay Bay. 72 % penetration and this is not the only inviting thing. There is a convention in the hotel and lots of people continue hopping on and off the table. This makes for a lot of talk, greeting, cheering, high-five-giving and appearing not like a lonesome counter. The ladies who mingle with the men around the bar are dressed up in tight cocktail dresses so I can let my eyes wander when the dealer shuffles. 100 minutes of eye candy are crowned by 300 $ profits (25-100 spread).
Day 17: My most memorable BJ encounter. But not here:
Golden Nugget: This time dealt from a shoe with a notch that cuts off 0.8 decks from 2. 90 minutes with a 15-80 spread brings me down 90 $. I step over LV Boulevard to visit the EC. When you browse this forum for the "EC" it can simply be described as "trigger happy". Today I don't care. My time in LV is coming closer to the end and there are enough alternatives in case I get shot down. First I start with 2D because SD is said to be more scrutinized but I can't resist the Siren calls and switch over to SD (10-40 spread) where they have the "rule of 6". About 1 hour in a man in a fine suit enters my pit. He's got white hair and an air of seniority eludes him while he greats all the staff making his round. Is the boss coming for me? Highly unlikely that they send some big shot to toss out a little counter (remember, my max bet is a meager 40 $). So I greet him when he's in front of my table and ask how he's doing.
Him: I'm so bored today.
Me: Uh, for excitement maybe we should bring in some whales from the strip.
Him confidently: That wouldn't make me sweat!
I think to myself: I know something that would make you sweat, haha!
Me: Are you the casino owner?
Him: If I was the casino owner I would probably sit on my private island and have dinner now...
When he leaves I question my dealer who this guy was. "It's the casino manager" he says in a hushed voice...
The SD just feels like a breeze while I am sitting between 2nd and 3rd base with an occasional ploppy visiting the table. I should stop now but all my red chips are turning green. I feel like I never want to let this addiction go.
After 150 minutes of awesomeness it happens:
The CM comes back and sits down on 3rd base right next to me with exactly these words:
"I'm so bored!"
Bad sign! I could leave immediately or see how it all plays out so I open with:
I'm sorry to hear that. So what do you like to do for fun when you're not working?
We chat for a short while why I continue playing (doubling my bets only when I win, halving them only on a loss, trying to need a bit longer for making decisions).
CM: Where are staying in Vegas?
Me: I'm staying at a friend's.
[Nice try! That was even the truth.]
CM: Have you ever succeeded in flat-betting?
[Ouch! It's official now: I'm done.]
Me: It depends.
As suggested I only flat-bet. When I'm dealt a 9,9 vs. 9 I ask him:
Me: What would you suggest with that hand?
CM with a smile on his face: I don't have the slightest idea.
I split correctly and win both hands with the dealer busting.
CM in an admiring tone: You're gooood.
[I'll never know if he meant just this hand, my advantage play, or if he was mocking me.]
Me: Oh thank you Sir, but don't tell me you never played a single hand of Blackjack in your life.
CM: Don't tell me you didn't play either.
[Touché! I was tempted to tell him that I'd never played until 2 weeks ago but
a) he might not believe me.
b) what would it help me now - I was finished.]
Me with passion: I love Blackjack!
I decide to leave after I lose the next hand as a good ploppy would do it. However that wouldn't come - I win hand after hand as if the table was jinxed.
CM in a matter-of-fact-tone: I'm not going anywhere.
[Ok, now he's really getting impatient and wants me out. I finally lose a hand.]
Me: Looks like my luck is turning against me. I should go before lose all my chips back. Color me up, please.
CM: Are you leaving?
Me: Yes.
And he reaches out to me, we shake hands and he wishes me "all the best".
I thank him, grab my chips (200 buy-in and 300 $ profit), but this time I exit directly to Fremont St. without passing by the cage.
This guy had style!
To my unknowing friends at home I brag: "When I left a casino in LV even the CM shook my hand and wished me all the best." Little do they know, haha!
Day 18: In a strip casino this time the cut is 0.6-0.7 decks. A younger guy joins the table. He's not the talkative type but that's fine with me. I notice after a while that he is having a large bet out when I have one and a small one when I bet small. I found a fellow counter! He has a higher minimum and maximum bet and clearly a different ramp. A BJ book suggests to leave immediately when you see another counter because if he gets found out you're in trouble, too. But since my days in LV are numbered I dare to ask him if he'd like to "grab a coffee" later.
Him: You mean here?
Me: Nah, somewhere outside...
What a great day! He leaves with a few hundred Dollars in profits and I follow him a minute later 300 $ richer to meet him on the strip.
We exchange a few "war stories" and he explains me that he's using the Red7 count and would like to be as outgoing at the table as me. But I see he's way more professionally setup because while he's living in the West he even has a place in LV to come regularly. He's playing 5 hours/day moving between casinos by car. His formula not to get caught is: He runs through the full spread never more than twice. That means before he gets any attention he's already out.
So man, if you read this, drop me a line!
Day 19-20: 440 minutes in some Henderson casinos (5-80 $ spread), no heat, 0 profit with swings in between. People at the table point at me "he's so funny" or "he's hilarious". A woman asks if she can join me because she doesn't like heads-up play. Ploppys are strange.
Day 21: Off strip I play 60 minutes in the morning session then disappear between the slots before the shift changes and come back a few minutes later. While I'm playing at a table a dealer from the neighbor table exclaims loudly in my direction:
"Look who's there. This is the High-Five guy, he's gonna beat your hands until they bleed."
I was tempted to yell: Why don't you shout louder, or even call your PB and introduce me as the guy who's taken a few hundred Dollars out last time. Damn!
I hadn't played in the casino for 5 days and he still remembered me even though my clothes were different and I wore glasses. Maybe my act was too thick. Luckily no PB seemed to bother. I even joined his table when it was emptier, had a nice banter with him while taking another 160 $ out.
So these were 3 weeks of BJ frenzy for me. After a total of 45 hours at the tables my BJ result was +1300 $. If you assume an average bet of 25 $, 100 hands per hour, 1 % EV, and 45 hours play then I was roughly in line with my theoretical EV. This is one of the things that amazes me the most - that I finally came out in line with expectation after my initial downfall.
Number of barrings: 2
Worst barring: SLS
Best barring: EC
Best quote I picked up at the tables: "What happens in Vegas never happened in Vegas."
What did I learn? In my limited experience the pen is often worse than advertised in CBJN. The casinos were much more distant than I thought (my fault). I strongly suggest having car, especially for off-strip places.
Was it worth the whole thing?
Money-wise: No. -600 $ for the flight and 150 hours of training leave me a meager 700 $ net profit.
Adventure-wise: Absolutely YES! I consider this one of the most thrilling times of my life. Fulfilling my dream of becoming a counter I have become an official casino gangster and I'll always cherish this colorful experience.
Will I do it again? Very doubtful. I have a very well paid real-life job so I don't need to do it for money. Vegas is a 15 hours flight. My memory has already forgotten a lot of the indices, my counting speed became rusty and I'd require many hours to get back "in shape". It's a tight calculation:
This time I could stay with a friend for free, next time I might incur a much higher overhead for hotel and a car. To offset that I'd have to bet higher with all the downside risk for short playing time. I really envy the APs who can come to LV regularly to get into the long run.
Thanks to everyone here for everything that I learned from the forum!
Fred
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Originally Posted by Bigdaddy
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