How do you know when to leave

[dommyy13]

Like the title says, how do you know when to get up and leave, in a winning session? The other day I went from being down $800 to ahead $600 and went to cash out. As I was about to leave I saw an empty table with a dealer who cuts fairly deep and sat down to play a little more. The TC went to 8 halfway through the shoe and I started putting out max bets only for the count to continue to rise and for all of my hands to bust or lose to the dealer. I know this part was just variance, but would you guys have left after cashing out ahead or would you have done the same and sat down to play more?


What tips would you guys have to knowing when to stop for the session when you're up?

Another example I have is one time when I drove 2 hours to get to a casino, won $500 in the first 30 minutes. I ended up losing it (+ more) over the next couple of hours, but walked out of the casino up $2400. Would you have left with the $500 or stayed longer? I honestly just stayed longer because I didn't want to have driven 2 hours to just play for 30 minutes and leave..

[Freightman]

I

Like the title says, how do you know when to get up and leave, in a winning session? The other day I went from being down $800 to ahead $600 and went to cash out. As I was about to leave I saw an empty table with a dealer who cuts fairly deep and sat down to play a little more. The TC went to 8 halfway through the shoe and I started putting out max bets only for the count to continue to rise and for all of my hands to bust or lose to the dealer. I know this part was just variance, but would you guys have left after cashing out ahead or would you have done the same and sat down to play more?


What tips would you guys have to knowing when to stop for the session when you're up?

Another example I have is one time when I drove 2 hours to get to a casino, won $500 in the first 30 minutes. I ended up losing it (+ more) over the next couple of hours, but walked out of the casino up $2400. Would you have left with the $500 or stayed longer? I honestly just stayed longer because I didn't want to have driven 2 hours to just play for 30 minutes and leave..

When to leave is subtly predicated on a number of points which relate to competency level, bankroll, tolerance to risk etc.

You did nothing wrong. As a very strong rule, notwithstanding heat considerations etc., continue to play as long as you have the advantage. These comments will sometimes bite you in the ass, as happened to you losing several max bets as noted above. Long term result however, will be to the right side of the bell curve.

As the saying goes, it's all one session - when the advantage is there - take it.

[Blitzkrieg]

Like the title says, how do you know when to get up and leave, in a winning session? The other day I went from being down $800 to ahead $600 and went to cash out. As I was about to leave I saw an empty table with a dealer who cuts fairly deep and sat down to play a little more. The TC went to 8 halfway through the shoe and I started putting out max bets only for the count to continue to rise and for all of my hands to bust or lose to the dealer. I know this part was just variance, but would you guys have left after cashing out ahead or would you have done the same and sat down to play more?


What tips would you guys have to knowing when to stop for the session when you're up?

Another example I have is one time when I drove 2 hours to get to a casino, won $500 in the first 30 minutes. I ended up losing it (+ more) over the next couple of hours, but walked out of the casino up $2400. Would you have left with the $500 or stayed longer? I honestly just stayed longer because I didn't want to have driven 2 hours to just play for 30 minutes and leave..

If I was down $800 in BJ and then went to being up $600 in BJ, I would have cashed out without a doubt and stopped playing for several hours then I would go find a poker room to get into a No-limit game.

If you don't know when to stop playing when your up on the house then that is on you if you want to press it.

I'll leave the casino if it took me 2 hours of driving and I won $500 in 30 minutes, a win is a win and the 2 hour drive means nothing. It's better than making that 2 hour drive back home knowing you could go back home a loser. But then again I would probably get a room, get my head right, then go back out later on that evening having contemplated my next move.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

The O.P. needs a crystal ball - in order to see what the next hour / session / day will bring.

A "Stop Loss" or a "Stop Win" under most circumstances is pure voodoo claptrap.

There are many good reasons to walk away, e.g. heat, fatigue, change in pen',

nearing a CTR, nearing a casino "choke point" etc. BUT the gross win / loss is moot.

[Romes]

OP, to answer your question in full:

1) You need to understand what Certainty Equivalent and Expected Value are a bit better. The fiscal amount of any 1 night in a casino is completely erroneous in the long run of what you're trying to accomplish. As you said, it's just variance. You could lose X or win X and it shouldn't matter to you at ALL. What matters to you is how much EV you have for the night. If you're playing a winning game you should know "Given this table, rules, and PEN, what's my EV per 100 hands?" Then you should be able to estimate how many hands you got last night and come up with an actually EV for the night. Say your hourly EV is $50/100 hand (or per hour at a decent table). Say you played for 4.5 hours last night and you think you got 100 hands per hour. That's 450 hands at a rate of $50/100 hands, thus your EV for the night (WIN OR LOSE) is $225.

Think of it like this... Every time you play blackjack you add your "EV" to a pot of gold. The pot of gold is at the end of the rainbow and you only get to collect from that pot of gold when you hit enough of "the long run." So no matter if you dump $500 tonight fiscally or not, so long as you're playing a winning game you ADDED your EV for the night to that pot of gold. This way, every night is a winning night (as it should be if you're playing a winning game).

2) It also depends on heat, etc. Obviously if you're heated up at the first table you shouldn't go sit down at that second game and play more. However, if you're "in the clear" so you feel, then the more hands/hours you play, the better. Blackjack is all about hands. You just want to play as many hands as you possibly can because after so many hands variance will die down and you'll hit your EV +- SD. So if you are up for playing, have beatable games, and aren't in any heat... then play, play, and continue to play. Whenever you decide to call it a night is when your session ends. Do bare in mind this should factor in not playing "marathon sessions" that will attract a lot of heat .

edit - ZenMaster is absolutely correct (in my opinion) about the possible reasons for ending a session.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

you'll hit your EV +- SD

VERY few newbies understand what SD is.

Without understanding Standard Deviation

and how it is crucial to the "swings" that we

all experience, the player is left feeling "cursed."

[Jabberwocky]

A good rule of thumb is to base your win on the number of units. I will always bail out @+30 units and above. Ending a losing session is tied to the number of max bets. I've doing it this way for years without any problem.

[Freightman]

A good rule of thumb is to base your win on the number of units. I will always bail out @+30 units and above. Ending a losing session is tied to the number of max bets. I've doing it this way for years without any problem.

Methinks you need a super high session win rate on those numbers. It reduces your average loss, but at significant cost to your average win. Might be wrong, but that's what I see.

[Freightman]

Methinks you need a super high session win rate on those numbers. It reduces your average loss, but at significant cost to your average win. Might be wrong, but that's what I see.

I guess I should requalify my comment and ask jabber his version of unit.

[Jabberwocky]

Revised

[Freightman]

My method is geared to a small to modest bankrolled player-which describes most APs.

What do you do in the middle of a super hot high count shoe, and you've hit, for the sake if arguments - 40 units (what is your version of unit)

[Jabberwocky]

My method is more attuned to a small to modest-sized bankroll. More geared toward a bankroll building style than would be otherwise.

[Freightman]

My method is more attuned to a small to modest-sized bankroll. More geared toward a bankroll building style than would be otherwise.

A big n0