Losing streak rant PART TWELVE

[Stealth]

Even if I wonged out and played only at +3 or better, I would still be a loser - because I can never extract value out of those big split/double opportunities.

You comment is diametrically opposed to the law of large numbers...............nothing always happens on the negative side of the curve.

The width of the outcomes are exceeding your tolerance, not the law of large numbers.

Adequate bankroll, patience and precision.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"I reckon I get more deuces than picture cards each time I double. Just about every dealer up card is a ten or an ace, and when it isn't, they virtually never bust ... I lose on each and every one of those stretches. Even if I wonged out and played only at +3 or better, I would still be a loser - because I can never extract value out of those big split/double opportunities."

QUESTIONS:

Are you aware of how you sound? You are ranting. Are you completely unaware of your "Selective Memory."
Do you know how unpleasant it is, to normal players -- this complete utter nonsense you continually spout ?
Do not take this personally, but rather clearly, you have twisted perceptions of what the reality of your game is.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"The width of the outcomes are exceeding your tolerance, not the law of large numbers."

Very well said !

[Stealth]

Very well said !

Thanks

[mickeymouse]

Latest session lost a further 1.8k. Lost EVERY positive stretch of shoe when they occurred (about 12 times). A steady downhill slide.
I didn't change the way I played and did not go on tilt. The vast majority of splits and doubles, again, failed.

[Three]

I didn't change the way I played and did not go on tilt.

This implies you have been doing these things. If so your poor results are to be expected. You must stick to the mathematical plan. All deviations from the optimal should be calculated for some for of gain; longevity, heat etc.

[mickeymouse]

I applied my indices at all times and made the appropriate bet sizes. I have NEVER not done so. I have NEVER raised bet sizes to chase losses even with a positive count. Don't try to imply I'm just another pathological ploppy; it ain't my first time at the rodeo. My luck just sux.

[mickeymouse]

(Side note: the number of times I lost a hand by making the correct indexical play rather than basic strategy, cf. the other way round, was enough to render me speechless.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"the number of times I lost a hand by making the correct indexical play rather than basic strategy, cf. the other way round, was enough to render me speechless."

Now I see. You not only suffer from Chronic Selective Memory, but you imagine that by using the "correct"
index play means that you should win most of those hands. That is simply FALSE. MOST of your indexed
plays are DEFENSIVE in nature - meaning that your e.v. on the hand is negative, but will be less negative
when played "correctly" LOSING LESS is similar to, but different from, WINNING MORE.

You also need to know that with your strong positive True Count you are still NOT favored to win
your upcoming hand.

[mickeymouse]

Of course I know that. Much of the EV is due to splits and doubles in high counts, most of which have failed in recent sessions.

Stating information that I already know is not particularly productive. Don't talk to me as if I'm some naive 21-year-old. I will continue to play my present game, heat and casino tolerance allowing, until I have lost my entire bankroll. About 10% was lost this weekend. This may take a few dozen sessions. When that occurs, I will quit. I have not and will not play any negative EV game. Period. That's all there is to it.

[Three]

Stating information that I already know is not particularly productive. Don't talk to me as if I'm some naive 21-year-old.

This is an open forum. You are not the only one that can benefit from statements made in this thread. Your statement assumes that there are no newbies reading this thread.

About 10% was lost this weekend. This may take a few dozen sessions. When that occurs, I will quit. I have not and will not play any negative EV game. Period. That's all there is to it.

If I perceived my results the way you perceive yours I would not be so fast to assume I am not playing a negative EV game to start with. Often chronic bad luck is simply an indication that you are making lots of mistakes. Granted when the computer plays perfect and has 0.01% RoR some unlucky bastard in every 10,000 players goes broke without any mistakes.

You also stated that you won't learn more advanced counting and will simply keep it simple. The games you play may be so bad that the increase in EV is huge from more advanced counting methods. The smaller the pie the larger the percent a certain size is of the whole. Certainly for Pontoon complexity is worth it and almost a necessity. I would be looking for ways to tighten up my game by increasing EV while at the same time decreasing n0 and negative swings not biding my time until I go broke. Everyone says it is all about the math. Every change to approach changes the math. To some extent you get to pick the ride to the long run when you choose your approach.

[mickeymouse]

I think it is highly unlikely I am playing a -EV game in terms of hand decisions. I would have quit long ago if the results suggested so.

In recent sessions I am, however, losing more than the average UNSKILLED player. And this includes regular BJ. I lose all the +EV stretches, often 7-10 hands in a row. Dealer draws a miracle 21. Or I just get two stiffs and bust both.

[Three]

Mistakes in counting also include inappropriate bet sizes because of the TC being off. That will affect results, maybe a lot. Simpler approaches has a lot more range around any decision generally speaking. That is why their optimal bet is smaller and swings are more frequent, more severe and longer in duration. The long run math works just fine but you must make the long run and be comfortable with the ride to the long run in order to feel good about what you are doing. Your all of going bust speaks to the former being in question and you clearly are not comfortable with the latter.

For me the bread and butter are the minor advantage counts. They com frequently enough to hit the long run +EV in fairly short order. The wild card is those top bets. They don't come that frequently so it can take a long time to get to the long run results for these larger bets. The affect on results of being off either on the plus or minus size is quite large. You need to survive long enough for the results to come in line with expectation for these top bets from making enough of these bets.

Another thought is you don't even seem to know your EV so how do you know whether your results are above or below given a certain number of hours of play? For all you know you have been ranting while being ahead of expectation overall. We all have swings and bad runs. We expect them and are prepared both emotionally and financially to play through them. It is an essential part of preparing to play as an AP. I doubt this is the case with you.