When TC is really high, I got a lot of twenty and BJ, so I don't have to do anything. For the few stiff hands, just do as index play requiring me to do, either hit or surrender. I saw a lot of ploppies stand and hope dealer bust when TC is high. It won't happen.Originally Posted by mickeymouse
Problem was I got no 20s or bj's. OK, on one hand I had two max bets in two boxes both 10 and doubled to 20. Dealer has a 4 up. She goes ten seven to draw to 21.
I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!
Of course, the morons, imbeciles and idiots on the rest of the table got their blackjacks. I can recall this week on a mega high count two other players on the table got BJs when I got two 16s. Lol! The reverse has NEVER occurred
I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!
You are emotionally attached to the winning and losing as shown from your post. Don't let it do that to you ,or at least be aware of your meltdown point. It happens to me as well ,but I let myself know when I can not take it any more to back down and regroup myself. It might help you too. You are there just going through the motion and just let the math take care of itself.
I experience similar things. As KJ said, most people experience it. What I think is, deck composition and card flow (?) do not know whichseat you MM are at. Card flow setup do not know ploppi seat. It don't discriminate people by age, sex, race. It is good point.
After n0 rounds, I will be better, it is my hope.
I've already been through n0 rounds, more than that. I'm still ahead, although that's not saying much. All that n0 means is that there's still a 14% chance of actually being IN THE HOLE. And to overcome two standard deviations you have to go through 4xn0 and you'd still have a 2.5% chance then.
I trudged my way, with some degree of resignation, back to the casino tonight. Order was generally restored, although I didn't have any dream runs. But at least the dealer bust some hands. I won back $1140, and got back to my EV for the month.
I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!
Of course you are experiencing "good variation" You are still profitable.
RE: "subsidizing the poppies", you have it backwards. They subsidize you by
being losing players, permitting the casino to let you win. Of course, in
the way that you mean that, you are suffering from "selective memory."
Most humans suffer from varying degrees of this handicap.
Ask a ploppy who gets more blackjacks ~ s/he or the dealers ?
It is 'normal' for people to remember very clearly the negative
happenstances of their lives, while hardly recalling the positive.
Being happy as you work at this profession is a choice. You will win in the long run but experience some downswings. Their frequency, depth and length has a lot to do with your approach. Wonging style is probably the biggest factor. The more percentage your big bets make of the whole of your bets the more severe the swings. You can choose to obsess about the losses or the wins or just not worry about anything. I often find myself laughing at the absurdity of the losses since I know just how rare of a chance some of them occur at. Other peoples play will help you half the time and hurt you half the time. What you choose to notice will affect how you feel at the table. I talk to poppies all the time that say other players never help them win a round by how they played their hand, they only make them lose. These people are miserable at the tables. I often know that 2/3rds or 3/4ths of the recent player's plays did cause the table to win. Since you don't know which it will be when the player makes his play it is insane to worry about the rewind what if once you know the order of the cards.
If you want to survive in this business you need to find a way to feel nothing about the ride to the long run. You will see it all on the way to that winning end so don't worry about it when it happens. A while back I had a shoe with a monster count. Every stiff I hit, which most of my hands were stiffs, I pulled a great card. The dealer busted every hand I needed her to bust and I won all my doubles and splits. I got nothing but crap matches the entire time. I don't think I lost a hand. I knew if I played long enough I would see this unlikely shoe just the same way as all the shoes that went bad or even horrible where you play against nothing but faces and aces and get no decent matches or worse get lots of great doubles and splits only to lose to long shot dealer suckouts. It is all expected and part of the ride. If you can't find a way to stop letting what is expected get to you you should quit.
No matter how strong the count you will have these bad runs built into the ride. The weaker the count the more the ride will deviate from expectation in the short run. Minimize n0 is about all you can do unless you software lets you look a lot closer at the stats than most allow. All the counts work and are mathematically sound. You need to pick one that suits your stomach for swings. From the sounds of it I am not sure there is a count that fits your weak stomach. I have found that results in life have a lot to do with your mindset. If that is true you may be your own worst enemy right now. Take the time to find a way to change your mindset. None of us like losing but I wouldn't be far off when I tell you most of us deal with it just fine. Trust the math and understand you will see everything on the way to the long run. That means both the good and the bad. I go to extremes to smooth the ride to the long run but bad runs do occur. Usually they are easily erased when looked at in a slightly wider context. Most of the time within the same trip.
The worst losses are when you are logging the most EV toward the long run. Once you have played enough hands every bet you made of that size will average a certain expected return. You win some and lose some along the way. Maybe you get crushed in a shoe from outlier events or maybe the deck composition is far from the average for the bin you are in. All this is included in the math and each bet you made, win or lose, contributes the same to the long run expectation. You should measure a sessions success not by how much you won but by how many +EV bets you made. In the long run (if you survive that long, not a given with your attitude) each bet made in a betting bin contributes the same to the long run EV. Properly making the bets is what increases EV. The wins and losses will fall where they fall along the ride to the long run. The losses are expected so don't worry about them. Your attitude makes it sound like you expect to win every +EV opportunity you get. If you believe that you really really don't understand what you are doing which could cause you to get wiped out either from stress or sheer losses from not understanding what you are doing.
Last edited by Three; 11-20-2015 at 09:06 AM.
Latest session, I lost another 1.2k, and at one stage was 2k down.
As far as EV goes there was plenty to be made. I played at a different venue. Plenty of high counts. But I just kept losing, and failing on doubles and splits. I reckon I get more deuces than picture cards each time I double. Just about every dealer up card is a ten or an ace, and when it isn't, they virtually never bust.
I am not unlucky when it comes to opportunities. There are plenty enough +EV sections of shoes. The problem is that I lose on each and every one of those stretches. Even if I wonged out and played only at +3 or better, I would still be a loser - because I can never extract value out of those big split/double opportunities.
I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!
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