Strategy thoughts??!!!

[patriots734]

So I have been playing black jack for 4 years now. I am currently 22. I started out like everyone just using simple basic strategy and flat betting. Wasnt happy with results (obviously thats set up to lose) So I started fooling around with "patterns" but found out that to bee just mainly luck and would catch runs. So i started reading lots of book, going to forms ect.. started taking practicing very seriously. Its all I do basically 24/7. But this is the problem.... I always want more... and more...

75% of my practice is at actual casinos (both foxwoods and Mohegan sun) I do the count you guys do hi lo.. but instead of starting at 0 I start at 30 just because for me its easier to deal with all positive numbers so a 24 count is the same as a -6 and a 36 is the same as a +6.


As you guys know decks like to be as the neutral starting point. In your case 0, in foxwoods there's a room that does 6 decks and cuts about 1/4 of the deck out. thats a very good PEN giving counting the best possible chance to win. I hit the casinos at least 3 times a week and play a ton. I have noticed (not just luck/ once in a while but every game...) when the count favors low cards (so there is more lows in the deck then highs) the dealers pulls more hands with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 showing. Basic strategy says 12 your hitting on 3-6 and 13 your hitting on all of them. well I have a friend that stand behinds me acts like a complete idiot (so the casino doesnt catch on, hell say dumb stuff and act like hes trying to learn to play) but hell actually be keeping track as well on what the count is and how often the dealer breaks with those cards up. We have the numbers (over 100s of games at the table) and when there are 5+ more lows then highs in the deck the dealer will pull a hand with a 2 up 6.5 out of 10 times with a 3 up its 6 with a 4 its 5.7 with a 5 its 5.5 and with a 6 its about 50/50 and that is with a range of 5-7 more lows then highs. With a count of 10+ those numbers increase greatly! So with this If the count is 7+ (more lows) i have been hitting on 12,13,14 (still not hitting one 15,and 16 as the numbers on those hands have not yet proven to be worth it with the math its still 50/50 crap shoot) and when hitting on the 12-14s with the dealer having 2,3,4,5,6 showing and by doing so I have actually been averaging winning 6.5 out of every 10 times where before the dealer was beating me more then 50% also using this strategy I am no longer double when the count is bad (7+ more lows) on 9s against 4,5,6. 10s agaisnt 2,3,4 and 11s against 2,3. I will still double a 10 on a 5,6 and and 11 on 4-6. the numbers on the doubles where really bad only about 2 of every 10 I actually got the 10, and about 6 out of every 10 doubles I would pull a 2-8 losing 6 out of 10 times. This is part one of what I have been doing so if you respond to this please label it as part one.


Part 2... Because the count was bad and games like to be even (with a really goood PEN) I also noticed that when it is bad you obviously want to bet less.... and this is when I just bet table min usually 15-25$ so in part one if I get 2 2s, 3s or 4, against anything I will split it just to pull as many cards from the deck as I can say its plus 7 (7more low) by splitting I only have out $30 total now and can pull hopefully a ton of lows out and if it back fires and I pull a lot of tens out and make the count worse I usually get up and walk when the table is 15+ and worse case I lose $30 and walk not a big deal. but anyways it seems to work and pulls out at least 3 or 4 more lows making the count only at about 3-4 now which is better then if you just regular hit and pulled only one out..... Now same goes for the opposite again over a ton of games 100+ I have recorded that when the count is favorable and lots of 10s are coming a few people on the table will have crap hands (14,15,16) when dealers have 7,8,9,10 showing and obviously they hit.... and when they hit on a count of again 7+ (this meaning 7 more highs now then lows) they are busting 7 out of 10 times and worse then busting on the hits they are wasting the good tens from the next round thus making the count not as good anymore. so I have noticed if you get dealt a crap hand to surrender it and play that surrendered bet on top of the next bet you would have made (only if the count is still favorable) so many games I have played and I just watch people hitting non stop on 14,15,16 against 7,8,9,10 up throwing away 4 tens every round... well when the count is favorable and that happened 2 rounds in a row you just threw away 8 straight 10s. also when the count is good then you double more often (like how on part one I was saying the opposite when the count was bad)






I want to know what you guys think about this. This is just a rough egg shell and its hard to fully explain the entire concept over email (and not even sure if this made sense or not) I havent been pulling much attention from the casinos. I use my perks card get free stuff non stop from them but I just make a quick 300-500$ and get out nothing to major (they actually gave me 3 free entries recently into 20,000$ BJ tournaments they are hosting next month. But anyways this is just a quick though I wanted to pass by the best and get an honest option if you guys think this is on to something or just crap. Its been working for me Im averaging about $1000 a week now for the past 4 months and like I said I try and go 2-4 times a week. I have been racking up enough comps I get free rooms, free concerts, free table bets, free slot play free meals. So its working out pretty good im making money and getting free stuff non stop. I only use my card when practicing at the lower buy ins. If I go to higher stakes 50-100 I dont usually use my cards as I feel that will draw more attention

[stopgambling]

Everything you talked about is well thought out by people decades ago .Just go read a few good books ,the strategies are all there. You writing gives me a headache ,it would nice to simplify it. Do not take my response as an offence.

[BJtoronto]

It is common knowledge that a dealer will make a hand more times than not with a so called "bust card." But basic strategy as well as the indexes weigh the benefit of you sticking vs not sticking by taking all factors into account. How is this done? By running the same hand millions or even billions of times through a computer simulation. Trying to come up with a general rule for all cases is a fool's errand, there are far too many combinations.

Sent from my SM-G900W8 using Tapatalk

[Ryemo]

I understand that you don't deal with negative numbers well, but why start RC +30? You're going to make this much harder than it needs to be. True Count Conversions must be a nightmare with the way you're doing it. I agree with stopgambling; I had a hard time even following your post.

My advice: Learn the correct strategy. You're not good with negative numbers? Then practice more! Not sure what level you're betting at, but it sounds like you're new to this. If you're red-chipping it, then you should't be concerned with heat. Get a couple books, buy CV BJ Verite, and practice with the software the "correct" way. And learn your indices (deviation from basic strategy). Do not make decisions to stray away from BS due to a gut feeling.

Recap
1) Learn the correct strategy.
2) Learn your indices.
3) Use CVCX to help determine an optimal bet spread.
4) Practice everything you learned with CVBJ to test your skills.
5) Take said skills to the casino.

Good luck!

[Frank Galvin]

Your lengthy paragraphs with miltiple concepts contained within each one, are difficult to follow. However, if I was reading it correctly, I am very concerned that you are reversing the tag values of the cards dealt using the hi-lo count.

What I mean is that you refer to hitting against dealer bust hands (bad up cards) when the count is + with extra low cards remaining. Also, you mentioned that when the (running) count gets to 15+, you walk away.

My sincerest hope is that you posted your thoughts in reverse. If not, please re-examine whether you have reversed the polarization of the tag values of the cards dealt while using the hi-lo counting system at the tables.

If I misread your paragraphs, my apologies. But as stated, I had difficulties following the lengthy paragraphs within your post.

[ZeeBabar]

I think the poster is addicted. Thinking 24/7, looking for patterns, ignoring math etc, etc.

[RS]

I think the poster is addicted. Thinking 24/7, looking for patterns, ignoring math etc, etc.

You two should team up then!


But seriously -- post was difficult to read. Especially that font, ew. Anyway, it looks like you've switched the tag values for the cards and are counting 2-6's as MINUS and 10-A's as PLUS. It's O-K to do that, but then you have to switch everything else around (flip indices from +4 to -4, for ex.). But that's confusing. Best, in my opinion, to re-learn it so you're counting 2-6's as PLUS and 10-A's as MINUS.

Question: You start off at RC +30? Like said above, TC conversion must be a nightmare. Let's say after the first deck of play (in a 6-deck shoe), the count rises by +5, so now you're at an RC of +35. There are 5 decks remaining to be played. I sincerely hope you're subtracting 30 from the RC (to get +5), then dividing by 5 (to get +1). Well, I suppose you could also do regular TC conversion, divide 35 by 5 to get +7, then always subtract the TC you get by 6 to get the real TC. Of course, you could just add 6 to all the indices, the bet ramp, etc. But.....that's really really confusing, ESPECIALLY if you're even remotely interested in team-play in the future.

It doesn't sound like you're far enough along to where re-learning everything would be too difficult. I would seriously cut the RC +30 thing. Negative numbers aren't that hard. If anything, starting at a high RC will just slow you down, as you're mentally thinking of "39" instead of just "9".

Get BJA3 if you don't have it already. Buy CVCX and CVBJ. CVCX for running sims so you can learn about how your count works and everything in general -- how wonging, playing 1 vs 2 hands, different spreads and ramps, etc. effect your game, mainly EV, ROR, N0, and SCORE. CVBJ for practicing.

[Freightman]

I was young when I started to read the post.

Try to be less wordy and more concise. Never got around to finishing it.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

The OP needs to learn how to play BJ
and needs to learn a balanced count.
Even Hi-Lo will dramatically improve
his rather confused game plan.

[metronome]

Was going to post something about our education system and of English as a second language for English speaking young people...
but that would be snarky 'cause it's not the young persons fault.

Anyway...734, listen to these guys... seriously

[Norm]

If you play Stairway to Heaven backwards, at the same time as Taylor Swift's Shake, Shake, Shake at half-speed, you clearly hear the mondegreen: "In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida". Tell me there are no patterns!!

[Frank Galvin]

That's addiction? Craaap. I'm addicted to damn near everything!

moses, you're not an addict, you're a recurring recidivist.

[RS]

If you play Stairway to Heaven backwards, at the same time as Taylor Swift's Shake, Shake, Shake at half-speed, you clearly hear the mondegreen: "In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida". Tell me there are no patterns!!

If you play a Nickelback song backwards, you're hear satanic messages. Even worse, if you play the song forwards, you'll hear Nickelback.