"How often you can expect to have bad luck"nearest bridges...

[shorty]

HI/Lo - 6 and eight deck games 5/6 or 7/8 pen. H17
Folks I've recently had real bad luck and lost about 65-75 max bets. Yes I've had wins in between but they weren't enough. I the beginning I started with 1k and had wonderful positive variance and won 15k I had 15k when I went from $25 to $50 units which I would add one unit for each TC , I lost 5k (VERY SAD AND UNFORTUNATE MOMENT FOR NEGATIVE VARIANCE TO START. super high risk I realize. Then ,I went back down to $25 units as I began talking to people here and begun learning about bet spread .... I bought CVCX and learned how high my RoR was ,so I started Wonging on -1 Running counts. and hoped for just one more taste of good positive variance before dropping my min bets and Ror.
I did this
0 $10
+1 $10
+2 $50
+3 $100
+4 150
+5 $200 MAX BET
(ITS NOT ABOUT ROR)basically I lost it all, the equivalent to probably about 65-75 max bets "YES I KNOW MY ROR WAS around 16%-20% or maybe even more at times ,such as doing the $50 unit disaster invite thing.

I'd like to hear how often other people loose 75 max bets. I mean was this a bad year? or can I expect to have this happen once per year? .I played 3-5 days per week for 5-8 hours each for the past few months
remember its not about war stories or stories you've heard or read about. Its about what happens/has happened to you. Its about how often a player can expect to lose that many top bets. I know this was high risk playing but consider this ,I have a replenishable bank roll or lets say I actually had the 50k with only .08% RoR I should have had in order to play that big ,I still would have lost 12-15k during my last bad luck run."""Thats still devastating""" and many hour wasted... Im thinking like this "even if I had a 50k BR that would still be a horrible loss and waste of time to loose 15k" horrible just horrible. this money was all lost day after day when the count was up.

[BJGenius007]

Folks I've recently had real bad luck and lost about 65-75 max bets. Yes I've had wins in between but they weren't enough. I the beginning I started with 1k and had wonderful positive variance and won 15k I had 15k when I went from $25 to $50 units which I would add one unit for each TC , I lost 5k (VERY SAD AND UNFORTUNATE MOMENT FOR NEGATIVE VARIANCE TO START. super high risk I realize. Then ,I went back down to $25 units as I began talking to people here and begun learning about bet spread .... I bought CVCX and learned how high my RoR was ,so I started Wonging on -1 Running counts. and hoped for just one more taste of good positive variance before dropping my min bets and Ror.
I did this
0 $10
+1 $10
+2 $50
+3 $100
+4 150
+5 $200 MAX BET
(ITS NOT ABOUT ROR)basically I lost it all, the equivalent to probably about 65-75 max bets "YES I KNOW MY ROR WAS around 16%-20% or maybe even more at times ,such as doing the $50 unit disaster invite thing.

I'd like to hear how often other people loose 75 max bets. I mean was this a bad year? or can I expect to have this happen once per year? .I played 3-5 days per week for 5-8 hours each for the past few months
remember its not about war stories or stories you've heard or read about. Its about what happens/has happened to you. Its about how often a player can expect to lose that many top bets. I know this was high risk playing but consider this ,I have a replenishable bank roll or lets say I actually had the 50k with only .08% RoR I should have had in order to play that big ,I still would have lost 12-15k during my last bad luck run."""Thats still devastating""" and many hour wasted... Im thinking like this "even if I had a 50k BR that would still be a horrible loss and waste of time to loose 15k" horrible just horrible. this money was all lost day after day when the count was up.

This is my spread at high limit room. You may scale it down by 10.

-2 Get out/Pretend making a phone call
-1/0 $100
+1 $200
+1.5 $300
+2.5 $600
+3.5 $800
+4.5 $1000

Sometimes when people are new to counting, they are not comfortable to 20:1 or 16:1 spread. You may try 10:1 at the start, you will build your bankroll slower but not by much.

[mickeymouse]

When I started I was spreading at 1-2x7.5 and was very lucky to get 50 bb's in front without ever being in the hole. I won 7.5k, then lost 5.5k of it, won 6k, lost 9.5k to go in the hole, then won 13k in my biggest win streak and finally lost 8k. Variance is part of the game.

I like your name.... I'm a shorty too. In temper that is.

[Ryemo]

I've had two separate instances where I had a "losing streak" of about 60 or 65 max bets this year. I'm up for the year, but most likely below EV. Last month or two have been a little rough for me. Just need to keep plugging away.

[ZeeBabar]

Hope I am not jinxing myself. It took me 20 months before I had real bad variance over 10 days. My log shows

October 10th, Minus $2400. 90 minutes
Minus $425. 90 minutes
October 11th, Minus $2200. 200 minutes
October 12 th,Minus $900. 90 minutes
October 13th, Minus $1250. 90 minutest
October 14th, Minus $375. 120 minutes
October 15th, Minus 175. 90 minutes
October 16th, Plus $200. 60 minutes
October 17th, Minus $800 60 minutes
October 18th, Minus $2000. 150 minutes
October 31st., Isle, Plus $200 35 minutes


October results.....Minus $8205. In 26 hours, Xpenses $305.

And then I seem to have gone into a zone this month, begun recovering some of it

November 1st., Plus $330. 100 minutes
Plus $50. 20 minutes
November 2nd, Plus $175. 30 minutes
November 3rd, Minus $720. 90 minutes.
November 4th, Isle Zip. 90 minutes
November 5th, Plus $880. 75 minutes
November 6th, Plus $435. 45 minutes
Plus $905. 60 minutes
November 8th, Minus $620. 50 minute
November 9th, Plus $635. 80 minutes
November 11th,Plus $895. (exp$50). 30 mnutes
Plus $450. 25 minutes

Today, playing $25 tables, I was in a zone, winning $1300 in less than an hour with no bet placed over $125. Dealer gets a 10, I get a pair of Aces, split, get a 3 and a 2 on each Ace, dealer has a 5 under his 10 and busts. Get BJ's, hit 13, 14, get 8,7. Just super good luck.

its taken me 19 months into my career to have such a bad streak followed by a good one though I still have to recover from the bad one.

[shorty]

well ZeeBabar, it sounds like October has done us wrong. you have more (bright side) than me considering your still up.
I'm still up $500 and figure if I keep playing properly I will see it come back. man o man

[stopgambling]

You bet spread seems ok ,a bit risky with 15k . If you are planning to play with 50k then it should be a decent spread and a decent ROR. Just make sure you are not making mistakes and is not affected emotionally by the game.Practice a lot to make sure your count is very low in error and you are up to speed. It is not rare to lose 60-75 max bets /500 hours. i have had it happened to me a few times . It is just part of the variance ,that is why you must have a proper bankroll and bet spread.Good game selection and game condition is also paramount. G.L.,

[Bodarc]

Zeebabar just a few idle thoughts I had while looking at your sessions.

Looking at your sessions, I noticed the following:
Loss Averages ..........$ 1,000..........1 1/2 hrs
Gain Averages ..........$ 600..........1 hr

I notice this in almost every schedule I see of gains and losses including my own. My question is, assuming we are using the same spread win or lose, why should our average dollar loss and playing time when we are losing be more than our average gain and playing time when winning?

We could say it is because we don't want to draw attention to our wins but we are still exposing our spread for a longer period of time when we are losing so that doesn't seem right? I think we chase losses! It makes me wonder about this. If I could run a sim and every time I'm losing, I'd play for 1 1/2 hours and every time I'm ahead I only play for 1 hour what difference would it make in EV if any? Maybe over 1 billion hands, nothing?

It just seems to me the figures should be reversed since I'm winning 73% of my sessions. I'd like my average gain to be more than my average loss and playing time more when I am winning since I am exposing my spread the same whether losing or winning. I know the math says just get in the hours, but these are questions I have.

[ZeeBabar]

Zeebabar just a few idle thoughts I had while looking at your sessions.

Looking at your sessions, I noticed the following:
Loss Averages ..........$ 1,000..........1 1/2 hrs
Gain Averages ..........$ 600..........1 hr

I notice this in almost every schedule I see of gains and losses including my own. My question is, assuming we are using the same spread win or lose, why should our average dollar loss and playing time when we are losing be more than our average gain and playing time when winning?

We could say it is because we don't want to draw attention to our wins but we are still exposing our spread for a longer period of time when we are losing so that doesn't seem right? I think we chase losses! It makes me wonder about this. If I could run a sim and every time I'm losing, I'd play for 1 1/2 hours and every time I'm ahead I only play for 1 hour what difference would it make in EV if any? Maybe over 1 billion hands, nothing?

It just seems to me the figures should be reversed since I'm winning 73% of my sessions. I'd like my average gain to be more than my average loss and playing time more when I am winning since I am exposing my spread the same whether losing or winning. I know the math says just get in the hours, but these are questions I have.

Great points, Bodarc. Frankly, the figures you quote for me are only for a period of 20 or so days when extreme variance is at play. My per hour EV is actually very poor over a year's period, primarily because my local casino has a bad DD game (H17, double 9-11, no DAS etc.). Over the last 20 days my big wins came from much better games a bit further away.

it is, however, true that my losing sessions are longer. You have to remember that I play rated and for longevity's sake, I try to leave if I am ahead, never push for more than $1k at a session if I can help it. I hope they forget my win because it's not too big. Course, when I am behind, I play longer in the hopes that I leave with a smaller loss, mostly because a larger loss still affects me psychologically.

it helps that I play in Missouri and am almost never the biggest bettor at my table. They can't back me off and as long as there are other Ploppies losing much much more than my smaller wins, they seem to not cut the penn or take any steps. On the few casinos when they have me playing head to head in the DD game, the most they have ever done is go from 75% penn to about a 60% penn and only when. I am ahead.

it helps that I play rated, that they know me, my age and looks are probably not counter typical, they know my career and do not see me as trying to make a living on BJ. I play Hilo with no side counts so I am conversing constantly with pit or dealer or other layers and my spread is mild (1-6), and I do mild deviations, playing one hand through I shuffle, playing two hands thru the next shuffle, playing $75 on one hand at TC+2 or two hands of $50 the next time the count is TC 2, etc.

My goal is very limited at present. I want to get $10-$15k per year. Last year, I made about $19k+. This year, it's down to about $4k in winning with about 45 days to go.

Next year, I intend to double my playing time, aim for 40 hours a month or about 400 a year. I will have to learn to camouflage, learn to be comfortable playing $25 min, 6 deck games, learn to be comfortable playing a max bet of $300+, play only good games.

[shorty]

You bet spread seems ok ,a bit risky with 15k . If you are planning to play with 50k then it should be a decent spread and a decent ROR. Just make sure you are not making mistakes and is not affected emotionally by the game.Practice a lot to make sure your count is very low in error and you are up to speed. It is not rare to lose 60-75 max bets /500 hours. i have had it happened to me a few times . It is just part of the variance ,that is why you must have a proper bankroll and bet spread.Good game selection and game condition is also paramount. G.L.,

yeah I noticed that it doesn't change EV much by not upping at +1 so ill wait till +2 to up my bet and it is safer.That also means less moves for critters to see anyhow.
I don't play at all at -1 TC and I'm sure my count is accurate as it gets. today I won 1500 so the game continues. 2k up ,I know its chicken scratch but I'm just saying.
Ive decided to simply play this way always. no matter my BR size. ill only play when I have a 2-3k (extra) $.
this way I have an decent EV that makes it worth sitting there. what do you think?
started at 1k ,made it to 15K now I got2k ,"oh well" right? atleast I'm still playn with their money and may continue to do so for life ,with a little luck.
I only know illustrious 18 though. folks say I should know more.im ready