Struggling with splits, using HiLo

[ZenMaster_Flash]

ZeeBabar[/U];176105]" ... not that I never split 8's or 3's or others ..."

In a H17 shoe game my index for splitting 3's vs. 2 is -1
but using ZERO would be an acceptable Risk Averse play.

[RS]

I guess you guys did not read Don's post or misunderstood it. Basically, when a hand occurs once in some 22000+ , then it is okay to trade a small bit of EV for the variance that would occur by losing 2 max bets.

You also do not seem to notice that in his answers, when he chooses to answer, he does not address the poster, only the post. Unfortunately, some of you have just learned a formula, a bS or BS with index, and want to jump on anyone who suggests otherwise. It's like a cop who will give a ticket to anyone driving 1 mile over the speed limit regardless of the specific conditions (broad daylight, empty road etc). You guys want to shut off your brains and just follow what the book says.

Betting amounts and comfort level do matter and it is not such a big deal to not split that it justifies the need to get your pent up hostilities out on a poster. If you notice, instead of jumping to conclusions, I said I had difficulties with some splits, not that I never split 8's or 3's or others, and that it's only at high TC's that I find it difficult.

You asked for tips in your OP. What kind of tips are you looking for? Many said to use BS and deviate when appropriate (indices). Some were more specific (Don) and gave you the indices and RA indices. Others (me, bodarc) were less specific, and we basically said all/most of your threads have the same content.


Perhaps a better question for you to have asked would be something like:

"I know we're supposed to follow BS and deviations when they are called for, to maximize EV ($$). But, sometimes it seems like adding the extra risk is not worth all the reward, especially if the difference in EV is miniscule. I think I remember reading in a book one time, where the author said if you always take even money on a blackjack, it doesn't hurt you that much (in EV), but will reduce your volatility somewhat. What other kind of plays are there, like that one, where it might make sense to make the lesser EV decision because it's such a small difference [in EV], but would also dramatically reduce the variance for those big hands with big bets out there."

[BJGenius007]

My biggest issue is counting. I'm afraid when the count gets high the dealer may get a 10 so I don't do it usually.
I spend all of my winnings so my bankroll is only 100 bucks. Is this alright?
I don't want my wife to know I gamble even though I do it 5 days a week. Is she stupid or is it me?
I don't buy books because I only do things I want to, not what the books say.
What is the correct index number to double down on an Ace Ten?
I'm not sure I gamble because I want to make money or if I'm just a compulsive gambler. When I retire in 4 years I may read a book then.

If you don't like my posts, be kind and just over look them.

Getting BJ is the only way players beat the game. Getting BJ at max bet is the key for AP to succeed.

When dealer gets BJ, he or she only gets 100% but the players get 150% of the bet. Without 150% BJ payout, the house has roughly 2.9% advantage. 150% BJ payout offsets 2.4% of that 2.9%, so house advantage cut to about 0.5%. The 2.4% is huge. For example, late surrender only add 0.1% advantage to the players. Re-split aces has only 0.04% advantage. That is also why 6 to 5 BJ is bad. BJ payout only adds 1% advantage to players. The house edge is 1.9% for that game.

In short, you want to bet big when aces and face cards are rich in the remaining deck because your chance to get BJ increases.

[Freightman]

Getting BJ is the only way players beat the game. Getting BJ at max bet is the key for AP to succeed.

When dealer gets BJ, he or she only gets 100% but the players get 150% of the bet. Without 150% BJ payout, the house has roughly 2.9% advantage. 150% BJ payout offsets 2.4% of that 2.9%, so house advantage cut to about 0.5%. The 2.4% is huge. For example, late surrender only add 0.1% advantage to the players. Re-split aces has only 0.04% advantage. That is also why 6 to 5 BJ is bad. BJ payout only adds 1% advantage to players. The house edge is 1.9% for that game.

In short, you want to bet big when aces and face cards are rich in the remaining deck because your chance to get BJ increases.

I had some problems at a particular out of town store on a subsequent visit, when, in the same prior session, not shoe, had 2x400 table max, with both being bj's, regarding a lucky lucky thread going now, a random 5.00 bet thrown on lucky lucky with suited 678.

Really, some places have no sense of humor..

[Freightman]

I guess you guys did not read Don's post or misunderstood it. Basically, when a hand occurs once in some 22000+ , then it is okay to trade a small bit of EV for the variance that would occur by losing 2 max bets.

You also do not seem to notice that in his answers, when he chooses to answer, he does not address the poster, only the post. Unfortunately, some of you have just learned a formula, a bS or BS with index, and want to jump on anyone who suggests otherwise. It's like a cop who will give a ticket to anyone driving 1 mile over the speed limit regardless of the specific conditions (broad daylight, empty road etc). You guys want to shut off your brains and just follow what the book says.

Betting amounts and comfort level do matter and it is not such a big deal to not split that it justifies the need to get your pent up hostilities out on a poster. If you notice, instead of jumping to conclusions, I said I had difficulties with some splits, not that I never split 8's or 3's or others, and that it's only at high TC's that I find it difficult.

Zee
Splitting, when called for at higher true counts, is something you should jump at. The simple fact is that your success rate increases at higher tc's, and not to do so, us an erosion if your EV.

[DSchles]

"The risk averse index to not split 8,8 vs 10 is a true count of at +5 and not +8 or higher?"

Yes.

Don

[ZeeBabar]

Zee
Splitting, when called for at higher true counts, is something you should jump at. The simple fact is that your success rate increases at higher tc's, and not to do so, us an erosion if your EV.

You are generalizing all "splits". Yes, splitting and doubling at higher TC's is valuable in general. In specific cases, such as splitting 8's against a 10 with a very high TC, the EV gain is very limited while the variance is very high and sometimes is simply not worth it (after all, a pair of 8's against a 10 may happen just nice in a year of playing). Just like a cop decides that chasing you ticketing you for driving 5 miles over the speed limit on an empty highway on a clear day is not something he wants to do, splitting 8's against a 10 with a TC greater than +5 is simply not worth it. If the hand occurred routinely and often, then in the long run, not splitting would hurt you more but this is not a routine hand that occurs frequently.

[MJGolf]

You are confusing, Zee. Then if it's not a routine hand that occurs frequently, why are you so concerned and wanting to start a thread on it. Even going back to your "risk adverse" or emotional trauma about splitting 8's when you have a high bet out against a dealer's 10 or face, you are STILL GOING TO LOSE THE VAST MAJORITY OF YOUR HAND/Bets since it's 16. Don't over think it. It's 16 v. a 10 if you don't split. So aren't you losing like 77% of the time if you don't split it? (according to Braun/per 100 hands) So if you split (basic strategy or not); shouldn't you be thinking like Don said above... that what you are really doing is trying to "break even" between the two bets even if you are essentially putting out 100% more of your bet on the split? Shoot, I would rather take a chance at risking another bet (even if big bet out) on the chance of breaking even on a "shitty" hand...........v just giving the house over 75% of my bet.

[Freightman]

You are generalizing all "splits". Yes, splitting and doubling at higher TC's is valuable in general. In specific cases, such as splitting 8's against a 10 with a very high TC, the EV gain is very limited while the variance is very high and sometimes is simply not worth it (after all, a pair of 8's against a 10 may happen just nice in a year of playing). Just like a cop decides that chasing you ticketing you for driving 5 miles over the speed limit on an empty highway on a clear day is not something he wants to do, splitting 8's against a 10 with a TC greater than +5 is simply not worth it. If the hand occurred routinely and often, then in the long run, not splitting would hurt you more but this is not a routine hand that occurs frequently.

Zee
Okay, time for a bs test, 6d shoe game h17 no surrender, double after split forget true count, forget about your dollar bet basic strategy. What do you do
22v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
33v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
44v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,19
I won't p ask about 55
66v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,19
77,0v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
88,pv2,,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
99,v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

[BJGenius007]

Zee
Okay, time for a bs test, 6d shoe game h17 no surrender, double after split forget true count, forget about your dollar bet basic strategy. What do you do
22v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
33v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
44v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,19
I won't p ask about 55
66v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,19
77,0v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
88,pv2,,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
99,v2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

Your typing is amazing.

[Freightman]

Your typing is amazing.

My spelling is precise, but my typing is atrocious - okay, it sucks. The truth of the matter is that I like to provide Don with something to do.

[metronome]

Is there a prize

[Freightman]

Is there a prize

Sure, get crackerjacks