Struggling with splits, using HiLo

[ZeeBabar]

My biggest issues are splitting decisions, given I play DD and 6Deck ( no single deck) HiLo with just the I-18 in games that do not offer Surrender options...

1. Splitting 8's against 9,10 in positive TC situations where I have a near Max bet or Max bet out. Fear of losing 2 max bets, maybe more if I draw another 8.

2. Splitting 6,6 against a 7.

3. Splitting 3,3 against 7's. When should we split if there is an 8 up?

4. Splitting 4,4 against a 5 or 6 with a TC of +2 or more.

any subtle tips in such situations from the pros here are appreciated.

[Ryemo]

I'm confused... Are you asking for correct index numbers, or are you stating that you have a hard time executing the proper plays when called for?

IF you're stating that you have a hard time executing the correct plays because you have a fear of losing, then you really need to reconsider playing AP BJ. I'm not a pro, but I'm sure any pro will tell you that you need to split when the index/strategy tells you to do so. And if you don't, you're just gambling. Simple!

IF you're asking for the correct strategy, then pick up a book and look it up. It isn't hard to find. And considering how long you've been playing, this should have been sorted out a long time ago...

[seriousplayer]

My biggest issues are splitting decisions, given I play DD and 6Deck ( no single deck) HiLo with just the I-18 in games that do not offer Surrender options...

1. Splitting 8's against 9,10 in positive TC situations where I have a near Max bet or Max bet out. Fear of losing 2 max bets, maybe more if I draw another 8.

2. Splitting 6,6 against a 7.

3. Splitting 3,3 against 7's. When should we split if there is an 8 up?

4. Splitting 4,4 against a 5 or 6 with a TC of +2 or more.

any subtle tips in such situations from the pros here are appreciated.

Answers are in red:

1. Splitting 8's against 9,10 in positive TC situations where I have a near Max bet or Max bet out. Fear of losing 2 max bets, maybe more if I draw another 8.

Split 8's vs 10 if TC < 8 since no surrendering is available. If surrendering is available you surrender 8's vs 10 at TC >= +2. There is no index deviation for 8's vs 9 using the Hi-lo count play basic strategy.

2. Splitting 6,6 against a 7.

There is no index deviation for 6,6 vs 7 using the Hi-lo count use basic strategy.

3. Splitting 3,3 against 7's. When should we split if there is an 8 up?

There is no index deviation for 3,3 vs 7 using Hi-lo count use basic strategy. To split against an 8 up the TC >= +4

4. Splitting 4,4 against a 5 or 6 with a TC of +2 or more.

Split 4,4 vs 5 at TC >= -2. Split 4,4 vs 6 at TC >= -5.

All answers are for six deck games.

Hope that helps!

[ZeeBabar]

Answers are in red:

1. Splitting 8's against 9,10 in positive TC situations where I have a near Max bet or Max bet out. Fear of losing 2 max bets, maybe more if I draw another 8.

Split 8's vs 10 if TC < 8 since no surrendering is available. If surrendering is available you surrender 8's vs 10 at TC >= +2. There is no index deviation for 8's vs 9 using the Hi-lo count just play basic strategy.

2. Splitting 6,6 against a 7.

There is no index deviation for 6,6 vs 7 using the Hi-lo count just use basic strategy.

3. Splitting 3,3 against 7's. When should we split if there is an 8 up?

There is no index deviation for 3,3 vs 7 using Hi-lo count use basic strategy. To split against an 8 up the TC >= +4

4. Splitting 4,4 against a 5 or 6 with a TC of +2 or more.

Split 4,4 vs 5 at TC >= -2. Split 4,4 vs 6 at TC >= -5.

All answers are for six deck games.

Hope that helps!

Thanks serious player. Yes, I know the basic strategy answers. However, say the count goes TC+5, you have a max bet out, dealer has a 10 and you have 8,8. Basic strategy says split but do I want to lose another max bet? The odds, even when you split, are that you would lose both bets. Now, with a minimum bet out, in the long run, you would lose less by splitting. However, it's not often you get an 8,8 with a TC+5. Fact is that some pros do not split in such a situation, save one max bet.

i simply wanted to express that I have difficulty doing some of these splits with a max bet out. It's unfortunate that some, not you, with pent up hostilities and unable to masturbate, are waiting to take it out on some stranger on a forum.

[Thirdbaseman]

say the count goes TC+5, you have a max bet out, dealer has a 10 and you have 8,8. Basic strategy says split but do I want to lose another max bet?

At +1 and higher, you would surrender 8,8 vs 10.
If surrender is not available, if you are using the risk averse index, you would stand at +4 or greater. Otherwise, you should split.

[seriousplayer]

Thanks serious player. Yes, I know the basic strategy answers. However, say the count goes TC+5, you have a max bet out, dealer has a 10 and you have 8,8. Basic strategy says split but do I want to lose another max bet? The odds, even when you split, are that you would lose both bets. Now, with a minimum bet out, in the long run, you would lose less by splitting. However, it's not often you get an 8,8 with a TC+5. Fact is that some pros do not split in such a situation, save one max bet.

i simply wanted to express that I have difficulty doing some of these splits with a max bet out. It's unfortunate that some, not you, with pent up hostilities and unable to masturbate, are waiting to take it out on some stranger on a forum.

For FYI splitting 8,8 vs 8 through Ace are defense splits. Splitting cut the disadvantage and lose.

[DSchles]

"However, say the count goes TC+5, you have a max bet out, dealer has a 10 and you have 8,8. Basic strategy says split but do I want to lose another max bet?"

We never want to lose any bets, but that doesn't mean that we don't make certain plays, if they're correct.

"The odds, even when you split, are that you would lose both bets."

That's not necessarily true and is probably false in this case. With the higher count, you are probably about 65% to lose one hand and 35% to win (exclude ties). So, to lose both hands is 42.25%, but to win one and lose one is 2 x 0.35 x 0.65 = 45.50%. You're more likely to break even than to lose both. Surprised? The problem is that you're very unlikely to win both, so your overall expectation is rather negative.

"Now, with a minimum bet out, in the long run, you would lose less by splitting."

You would also lose less with a maximum bet out, but you are risking more. So, you are correct that, from a risk-aversion point of view, there comes a point (right around +5!) above which splitting is no longer optimal. This is one of those times where you get the "right" answer for the "wrong" reason. Or, maybe you just have a good instinct as to when to make a risk-averse play!

"However, it's not often you get an 8,8 with a TC+5."

You get 8,8, vs. 10 once every 615 hands. The TC is greater than or equal to +5 about once every 36 hands. Ignoring any interaction between the two concepts, you get this holding once every 22,140 hands, or once every 221 hours! For some people, that represents an entire year's worth of play!! Bottom line: do whatever makes you happy.

"Fact is that some pros do not split in such a situation, to save one max bet."

Well, the first part may be true, but it isn't to "save one max bet." It's to forfeit a sliver of e.v. to save the greater variance on the play, by not splitting.

Don

[seriousplayer]

"However, say the count goes TC+5, you have a max bet out, dealer has a 10 and you have 8,8. Basic strategy says split but do I want to lose another max bet?"

We never want to lose any bets, but that doesn't mean that we don't make certain plays, if they're correct.

"The odds, even when you split, are that you would lose both bets."

That's not necessarily true and is probably false in this case. With the higher count, you are probably about 65% to lose one hand and 35% to win (exclude ties). So, to lose both hands is 42.25%, but to win one and lose one is 2 x 0.35 x 0.65 = 45.50%. You're more likely to break even than to lose both. Surprised? The problem is that you're very unlikely to win both, so your overall expectation is rather negative.

"Now, with a minimum bet out, in the long run, you would lose less by splitting."

You would also lose less with a maximum bet out, but you are risking more. So, you are correct that, from a risk-aversion point of view, there comes a point (right around +5!) above which splitting is no longer optimal. This is one of those times where you get the "right" answer for the "wrong" reason. Or, maybe you just have a good instinct as to when to make a risk-averse play!

"However, it's not often you get an 8,8 with a TC+5."

You get 8,8, vs. 10 once every 615 hands. The TC is greater than or equal to +5 about once every 36 hands. Ignoring any interaction between the two concepts, you get this holding once every 22,140 hands, or once every 221 hours! For some people, that represents an entire year's worth of play!! Bottom line: do whatever makes you happy.

"Fact is that some pros do not split in such a situation, to save one max bet."

Well, the first part may be true, but it isn't to "save one max bet." It's to forfeit a sliver of e.v. to save the greater variance on the play, by not splitting.

Don

The correct index to not split 8,8 vs 10 if surrendering is not available is when the true count is 8 or higher. I looked it up using two source of references.

[DSchles]

"The correct index to not split 8,8 vs 10 if surrendering is not available is when the true count is 8 or higher. I looked it up using two source of references."

You didn't read what I wrote. I'm not discussing the e.v.-maximizing index; I'm discussing the risk-averse index.

Don

[seriousplayer]

"The correct index to not split 8,8 vs 10 if surrendering is not available is when the true count is 8 or higher. I looked it up using two source of references."

You didn't read what I wrote. I'm not discussing the e.v.-maximizing index; I'm discussing the risk-averse index.

Don

The risk averse index to not split 8,8 vs 10 is a true count of at +5 and not +8 or higher?

[DSchles]

"The risk averse index to not split 8,8 vs 10 is a true count of at +5 and not +8 or higher?"

Yes.

Don

[Stealth]

The odds, even when you split, are that you would lose both bets.

The "odds" are the reason basic strategy tells you to split. The purpose of the play is to either win more or, in this case, lose less because the math said that is what will happen when you follow the guidance.

If you are not willing to follow the directions, why are you playing? If the size of your bankroll causes these plays to be uncomfortable then I suggest you are over betting your bank and/or your tolerance for risk.

[Thirdbaseman]

[QUOTE=seriousplayer;176014] There is no index deviation for 8's vs 9 using the Hi-lo count just play basic strategy.

You should surrender 8,8 vs 9 at +7 and higher.