The reality of H17

[First Normal Form]

I've never thought average players even noticed or understood H17. I suppose I'm slightly encouraged if AC is moving back to S17 due to consumer demand, as Tthree is reporting. However, I don't mind H17 the way Norm hates it. Maybe I'm deluded. If I ran the casino, I would try to give players all the choices I could, while taking the 'quiet' penalties for myself. They get DAS, RSA, and LS. I get H17 and 2+ decks. When I'm at a table with average players, and the dealer tells one of us we can't soft double, I facepalm (yes, I sometimes try to soft double on purpose). It's never a good moment for the casino. But when a dealer hits a soft 17, it's barely noticed.

A non-scientific survey of all my friends and acquaintances reveals:

1. They are actually surprised at how low the casino edge is at BJ and craps. I think explaining a .1-.2 further increase to them is hopeless. Location and ambiance are much, much more important, and probably should be for their utility functions.

2. To nearly a man/woman, they think that counting six to eight decks is impossible. The second 'question' I always get is, "but they all use six/eight decks now; you can't count that!". That Rain Man movie was powerful. So, if they already think that shoes are unbeatable, I don't know if more decks, auto-shufflers, or the notion that it's a beatable game, is that much of a lure. Consumer decisions based on hitting a soft 17... that's asking a lot.

3. It is hard even to explain the difference between 6:5 and 3:2, even to intelligent people. I learned to count cards when I was 19, so this is ingrained. The population of smart people who are mathphobic is alarming. It takes a long time to explain, only half of them get it, they're bored by the end of the explanation, and it will have absolutely zero impact on their consumer choices next time they're in Las Vegas. "Is this the 6:5 game? How do I tell? What about all the other things I should care about? This is H17, I can see that! But is that more important than 6:5? And this is one deck! That's good; does it offset 6:5? My friends are sitting here!" And that's an unrealistic representation of an internal dialogue that is actually more gut-like. Imagine walking into a purchasing scenario you know little about; if it's the difference between either $50 or $60 you probably make your best guess and move on.

These pennies on the dollar choices are just not important to the average gambler. They don't care; within reason (6:5 strains reason) I'm not sure they should.

[21forme]

Many dealers believe H17 is better than S17. After all, it gives the dealer an extra chance to break a made hand.

Most dealers learn their BJ skills from the players at their tables. They recite ploppy mantra, such as "never split anything that starts with F," etc. I've seen a number of dealer play BJ and have yet to see one that plays close to BS.

[KJ]

Reply to first normal form: (interesting handle btw) You are correct. The average players doesn't understand the difference is or even what additional advantage the casino is invoking. They probably don't understand the numbers at all. But they do understand that they are losing their money faster and experiencing less winning sessions and eventually they get to the point that they say "why should I go and play? I used to occasionally win, now I never do." And it isn't limited to blackjack. Video poker players come to the same conclusion when the casino starts dropping the pay tables and slot players reach the same conclusion when they paybacks % are dropped. They may not understand exactly what those numbers mean, but they know their money isn't going as far as it used to and that they aren't occasionally winning like they used to. Once the patron feels they aren't getting a fair shake, they stop playing or play less frequently than they used to. And once they have lost that confidence, it is pretty hard to get them back.

I have never really been in sales, but isn't there some saying about how it's much harder and more expensive to get a new customer than to keep one that you already have? I think that is a fatal mistake the casino industry began making about a decade ago.