Hey guys! I got a question! Insuring a good hand as opposed to a bad hand.

[BigJer]

I want to make sure I understand something right. In BC: Exhibit CAA, Grosjean said that, essentially, it is worse to insure a "good hand" than a bad hand. Then later he talks about variance. I just want to make sure that it is both the insuring a good hand and the variance that makes it so bad. TIA.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I think that you are misreading Grosjean.

To reduce variance I agree with James Grosjean.

For insurance, invoking Level One True Counts ...

I will take "Even Money" on BJ's > +2

I will insure a 20 at +2

I will insure 11 and 19 at +2.5

While you are paying a tiny "premium" for the "insurance"

it certainly serves to reduce variance.

[BigJer]

I think that you are misreading Grosjean.

To reduce variance I agree with James Grosjean.

For insurance, invoking Level One True Counts ...

I will take "Even Money" on BJ's > +2

I will insure a 20 at +3

I will insure 11 and 19 at +4

While you are paying a tiny "premium" for the "insurance"

it certainly serves to reduce variance.

How am I misreading him? He says just before he writes about the variance that it seems worse to insure a good hand - pair of tens - than a bad hand.

[RS]

If I'm not mistaken, [going from memory here] he is referring to a ploppy player who would rather insure a good hand of 20 (T,T) than a bad hand (neither card T). Of course, this is worse for the ploppy because neither of the two T's in his hand can be the dealer's hole card.

[Dieter]

How am I misreading him? He says just before he writes about the variance that it seems worse to insure a good hand - pair of tens - than a bad hand.

Are you making your insurance decision based on the count before the deal, or the count including the face up cards on the table?

[BigJer]

Are you making your insurance decision based on the count before the deal, or the count including the face up cards on the table?

Including the face up cards.

[stopgambling]

i would concentrate on what matters the most in AP play.It is not efficient to spent too much time on the smaller stuff . What i considered more important stuff , watch out for dealer mistakes , heat, looking for better games,how to tip less ,looking for HIGHER edge, scout for better pen. Eg. i had a very good game/play i was too excited and nervous cause i was betting quite a lot bigger than usual . i was almost paid less for my winning hand .

[BigJer]

i would concentrate on what matters the most in AP play.It is not efficient to spent too much time on the smaller stuff . What i considered more important stuff , watch out for dealer mistakes , heat, looking for better games,how to tip less ,looking for HIGHER edge, scout for better pen. Eg. i had a very good game/play i was too excited and nervous cause i was betting quite a lot bigger than usual . i was almost paid less for my winning hand .

I know. I'm just wondering.

[MJGolf]

Ok, I'm wondering too...........are you asking it in relation to heat or longevity at the table OR purely as to mathematics of the bet? Because isn't insurance, insurance? And truly just a bet on whether it's worthwhile enough to bet on the dealer having a face card down? Which honestly has NO relationship to the value of your hand whatsoever?

Yep for a basic strategy player, you were always told to NOT take insurance especially if you had a twenty (two face/10's) because you had two more of the possible cards the dealer needed to have for a BJ. Therefore off the top edge was reduced even more as to them getting a BJ. But am I missing something in your question since insurance is only the NAME of the bet........you really are not INSURING the value of your hand.

[Freightman]

Ok, I'm wondering too...........are you asking it in relation to heat or longevity at the table OR purely as to mathematics of the bet? Because isn't insurance, insurance? And truly just a bet on whether it's worthwhile enough to bet on the dealer having a face card down? Which honestly has NO relationship to the value of your hand whatsoever?

Yep for a basic strategy player, you were always told to NOT take insurance especially if you had a twenty (two face/10's) because you had two more of the possible cards the dealer needed to have for a BJ. Therefore off the top edge was reduced even more as to them getting a BJ. But am I missing something in your question since insurance is only the NAME of the bet........you really are not INSURING the value of your hand.

I agree with your comments - think you are referring to Flash's comments - think he must be taking heat into consideration. I agree with him to insure a 20, even when TC is below threshold. Other than that, insurance is nothing more than a sidebet on which you ate betting that dealer will get a BJ. So, in other words, shit hands where threshold exceeds your particular count level, should be insured.

[stopgambling]

I would not insure my garbage hands in some cases even when it is called for .You know what I mean . Insure good hands to reduce variance if one's bankroll is not super solid ,and insure bad hands when needed for pure EV ,but NEED to factored in heat.Of course for pat hands just insure when it is the right move. P.S. I will get my subscription and send you a Pm ,BIg J .

[ZeeBabar]

It's funny to see the reactions on the table. I had a max bet out, TC+5, and I received a 7,8 on a face up game. I had out $200 and I put out insurance when none of the other three did and I started to kiddingly beg the dealer. "Oh, pleeease have a BJ". There were mutterings and one guy whispered to his GF that I was now going to lose an extra $100. Sure enough the dealer had BJ and the disgust form the Ploppies was amusing. In other situations when I had 20 and did not take insurance while some others were insuring their 20 and taking "even money" (count before deal was high but everyone on table seemed to have a ten or two and one had a BJ) and then the dealer did not have a BJ. Hard to keep the smug smile off my face.

ofcourse heat was not present but what do you do when heat is around, you have a face up 15 and insuring?

[RS]

Just don't insure your 16's....then surrender. Oh yeah, now that's fun!