Is this game a waste of time using the play all approach?

[seriousplayer]

When I talk my trip to Las Vegas I usually play the game 2D H17, DAS, RSA with 75% cut off. I use the play all approach so they won't think that I am a card counter. I also use the true count version of KO with 100+ risk adverse indices generated using CVDATA . Counter catch usually uses the Hi-lo count to analyze counters. The bad part is that Hi-lo does not count the 7s. KO counting the 7s are not similar to Hi-lo so by them using Hi-lo to check me it will confuse them. This way they will only compare my skill to a basic strategy player.

From simulating the game using CVCX it is possible to get a SCORE higher than 50 with the play all approach with 1-6 bet spread 75% cut off. However, comparing other counts like Halves Full indices with 60-62% penetration the SCORE is under 50 with 1-6 bet spread. The SCORE is over 50 with 1-8 bet spread using the level 2 counts.

For level 1 counts like KO or Hi-lo the SCORE at 60% cut off is under 50 even with 1-8 bet spread. But for KO-full indices (100+) at 62% penetration the SCORE is over 50 with H-lo full indices over SCORE 50 at 62% cut off. KO (100+) indices beating Hi-lo. KO 100+ indices with 3 players the SCORE is little over 50 at 60% cut off. Probably because the penetration increase with more players at the table.

Is playing this game a waste of time? Either in a professional or recreational level?

[Bigdaddy]

DD, H17, DAS, 75% pen is a good game. Forget the SCORE and the which-method stuff. Your major consideration playing this game in LAS Vegas is heat! You need to play unrated and short sessions. The EITS at the LV strip casinos watches these DD games like they're the Crown Jewels....

[Ryemo]

When I talk my trip to Las Vegas I usually play the game 2D H17, DAS, RSA with 75% cut off. I use the play all approach so they won't think that I am a card counter. I also use the true count version of KO with 100+ risk adverse indices generated using CVDATA . Counter catch usually uses the Hi-lo count to analyze counters. The bad part is that Hi-lo does not count the 7s. KO counting the 7s are not similar to Hi-lo so by them using Hi-lo to check me it will confuse them. This way they will only compare my skill to a basic strategy player.

1) The DD game that you mention is a very good game and I don't think using a play all approach will throw heat off at all! As Bigdaddy mentioned, you should be more concerned about the heat levels this game will attract more than the SCORE.

2) Your count system will not throw off any counter catchers or any computerized software either! Most counting systems can identify the same advantage. We just had a similar discussion on BJ21.com and this was my response to one of the posts:

"I met an AP at the tables during one of my Vegas trips earlier this year. The guy jumped into my table (DD game) and after two shuffles, we could 100% identify each other as APs. It looked as if our unit size and top bets were very similar. He vacated after the second shuffle and I left after the third. On my way out, he approached me and we exchanged info and met later off site. Turns out he uses a count system that he created himself and is equivalent to a level 4. I know I've never seen such a count system before.


The point is, our two counts were VERY different from each other's, but what wasn't different was the way we were moving our money around. We both seemed to be pushing out identical bets in unison, which is why we pretty much identified each other after the first shuffle, then confirmed it by the second. So adopting a new counting system won't throw anyone off. As KJ said, majority of the counts will identify the same advantage."

[Three]

Well my experience at playing with others counters is a bit different. I used Hiopt2 with ace side count when these interactions occurred and in some cases i knew the person and the system they were using. Most systems di recognize the same opportunities to raise bets but we did not raise and lower in unison. They were always quicker to raise their bets and also to lower them. I found it interesting and have no real way to know which was more accurate except sim results suggest that in most cases I was more accurate. Often they raised their bet before Hiopt2 indicated an advantage at all and when they were lowering their bet the advantage was at its highest. Like I said no telling who was right in any particular instance but over the long haul sims would suggest I was right more often due to better sim results. Less often counts bet into no advantage at all. Most of the time I knew the count being used it was a level 2 count or higher. When I didn't know I assumed Hilo because that is the most used count. I never played that much with other APs so the sampling is admittedly small. Take it with the appropriate grains of salt. YMMV

[stopgambling]

Not the count debate again! Wonging out and playing great games will get you far. Being able to play great game or play with little heat is much more of a concern .

[seriousplayer]

1) The DD game that you mention is a very good game and I don't think using a play all approach will throw heat off at all! As Bigdaddy mentioned, you should be more concerned about the heat levels this game will attract more than the SCORE.

2) Your count system will not throw off any counter catchers or any computerized software either! Most counting systems can identify the same advantage. We just had a similar discussion on BJ21.com and this was my response to one of the posts:

"I met an AP at the tables during one of my Vegas trips earlier this year. The guy jumped into my table (DD game) and after two shuffles, we could 100% identify each other as APs. It looked as if our unit size and top bets were very similar. He vacated after the second shuffle and I left after the third. On my way out, he approached me and we exchanged info and met later off site. Turns out he uses a count system that he created himself and is equivalent to a level 4. I know I've never seen such a count system before.


The point is, our two counts were VERY different from each other's, but what wasn't different was the way we were moving our money around. We both seemed to be pushing out identical bets in unison, which is why we pretty much identified each other after the first shuffle, then confirmed it by the second. So adopting a new counting system won't throw anyone off. As KJ said, majority of the counts will identify the same advantage."

The counter catchers in Las Vegas are not knowledgeable. One time I was playing the dealers and sometimes the pit boss always anticipate the next card in the deck when the cards are deal out to players 9 out of 13 times they guess wrong. When I double down before the dealer open up the face down card she call out the card was a 6. The face down card happen to be a 10 card.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"This way they will only compare my skill to a basic strategy player."

Gibberish. Completely wrong. The two counts correlate almost perfectly.

We all know that you are referencing one or more of The Station Casinos;

so unless you are playing RED, you will be 86'd fairly soon, or you are

playing for an hour or less, toking a little, and betting with a 6-1 ramp.

[Three]

Not the count debate again!

Who is debating counts. I just gave my experience from the limited time I spent playing at the table with other counters since it differed from Ryemo's a bit and explained the logic behind my analysis of the situations. I don't think I showed any bias and adequately explained the assumptions I used. They were assumptions so like I said take it with grains (notice the plural to show a lot was based on assumptions and can't be proved) of salt. It isn't a count debate until someone takes the post where it was never intended to go. So where is the debate? Are you for stifling the exchange of ideas that get specific about what was going on to the point of naming counts? There is not much to learn from that.

[Ryemo]

In the incident I was referencing in my earlier post; we had two back to back shoes where the count went through the roof. So I'm sure our bets weren't 100% identical, but we started with similar bets to begin the shoe and our max bets were very similar too. My point is that no system is really going to mask your play when being counted down by a counter catcher or by software. So don't allow yourself to believe that you're fooling anyone, just because you think most counter catchers use hi lo, seriousplayer.

On another point seriousplayer, I don't understand your remarks about the pit boss not being able to guess your next card coming out of the shoe? I'm not sure where you were going with that, but it doesn't prove any kind of point. I would say that floor personnel in Vegas tend to be a bit more sharp that what you might find in other regions of the county.

And I agree with Tthree; this is certainly not a count debate.

[seriousplayer]

Gibberish. Completely wrong. The two counts correlate almost perfectly.

We all know that you are referencing one or more of The Station Casinos;

so unless you are playing RED, you will be 86'd fairly soon, or you are

playing for an hour or less, toking a little, and betting with a 6-1 ramp.

How does Hi-lo correlate perfectly with true counted KO? I played with other Hi-lo counters before and we don't raise our bet at the same time. For example, at the beginning of a double deck game there was two imbalance of low cards that was played. Assume no 7s has been played. Using Hi-lo the true count will be 2/1.75 = 1.14. With TKO the true count will be [2-4(.25)]/1.75 = .57. The Hi-lo counter will already start raising their bet but TKO counter is still betting minimum.

Lets take for example at the beginning of the deck 6 low cards has already been played and no 7s has been played. The TC for Hi-lo will be 6/1.75 = 3.42. For TKO the TC will be [6-4(.25)]/1.75 = 2.86. Hi-lo counter will be taking insurance already.

I am also playing an advantage technique called "comp hustling". Something I've learned from "Comp City". I am taking steps to maximize the comps I receive from my play. I put out my big bets is looking so he can rate my bet size for comps which happen to be at advantage counts.

[Three]

Short of the 7 Hilo and TKO are pretty much the same count. There will be some differences but they will be minimal as most of the time the 7's will be about at what is expected. I agree with Ryemo that you should not believe there is a large enough difference to fool anyone.

[stopgambling]

from the info that i have read ,Ko underbets at the beginning and overbet a little near the end of the shoe. it 's advantage is it is accurate at the pivot point.i t is mainly design for ease of use and games of average pen such as 4.5/6 .

[ZenMaster_Flash]

seriousplayer[/U];177674]

"How does Hi-lo correlate perfectly with true counted KO? I played with other Hi-lo counters before and we don't raise our bet at the same time. For example, at the beginning of a double deck game there was two imbalance of low cards that was played. Assume no 7s has been played. Using Hi-lo the true count will be 2/1.75 = 1.14. With TKO the true count will be [2-4(.25)]/1.75 = .57. The Hi-lo counter will already start raising their bet but TKO counter is still betting minimum.

Lets take for example at the beginning of the deck 6 low cards has already been played and no 7s has been played. The TC for Hi-lo will be 6/1.75 = 3.42. For TKO the TC will be [6-4(.25)]/1.75 = 2.86. Hi-lo counter will be taking insurance already.

I am also playing an advantage technique called "comp hustling". Something I've learned from "Comp City". I am taking steps to maximize the comps I receive from my play. I put out my big bets is looking so he can rate my bet size for comps which happen to be at advantage counts."

You misquoted me - I did not say "perfectly." I said ALMOST perfectly. They correlate very highly.

Firstly, all you are doing is cherrypicking an unusual circumstance and drawing a false conclusion.

Nearly all the time the correlation is so close as to be moot.

Your example of 6 low cards played with no 7's happens about as frequently as Halley's Comet.

Secondly, this statement: "The Hi-lo counter will already start raising their bet but TKO counter

is still betting minimum." is painful to read. Neither should be raising their bets in that situation.

RE: Insurance, You neglected to factor in the 7th card - the dealer's Ace.

If you think that "comp hustling" is A.P. action you are mistaken.

You will lose more than your comps are worth, and they are not worth much.

"Comp Hustling" of the sort you are referring to is for the Basic Strategist -

in the HOPE that the comps will be generous enough to negate the losses.

That was (sometimes) true in the 20th Century, but not any more.

You need to learn that the E.O.R. of a 7 is very low. Of all the low ranks,

it has the weakest "Effect Of Removal" RE: your overall advantage goes,

the removal of a 7 is almost meaningless compared to a 4 or a 5,

or even a 3 or a 6 for that matter.

The deuce? I will let you figure out one small fact for yourself.

You are using some very poor math as well. Six cards removed from a DD

[in decimal form] -- > 1/20

You have only seen 5.7% of the cards. 94.2% of the cards are unseen.

You used 1.75 as a divisor not 1.95 6/1.95 = 3.07, not 3.42.