Question about bad count shoes

[rebel4ever]

Hello All -
Very new to this and just had a question about shoes with bad counts.

From what I have read the AP players goal is to get into shoes with good counts and then modify their play and bets according to the count to gain an advantage. Until the count is good, they would just flat bet and play BS trying to minimize losses while waiting for the count to improve. To further minimize this, a player could back-count and just jump in to positive count shoes but this could be tricky at some casinos and may bring heat.

So if we assume that all shuffles are random, the number of bad count shoes to neutral count shoes to good count shoes would be equal. The AP would not really have any advantage in the bad or neutral count shoes only in the high count shoes or basically in 1/3 of shoes dealt. That would mean there would be a lot of time spent playing in non-advantage situations.

In a good count shoe, the variations from BS include more doubling down, less hitting of stiff hands, more surrender to take into account the higher percentage of 10 value cards in the remaining decks.

So now to my question-
Is it possible to modify BS so that it would provide a player advantage when the count went highly negative? Maybe less doubling down, different splitting strategy, more hitting of stiff hands.

I'm guessing that if the count goes to far negative it is probably best to leave the table or wait for the next shoe - but I figure that doing that too much or only playing in high-count shoes might bring unwanted attention.

I just wonder if there would be a BS variation for negative count shoes that would increase the players advantage over just straight BS.

Might be a stupid question...

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"Is it possible to modify BS so that it would provide a player advantage when the count went highly negative? Maybe less doubling down, different splitting strategy, more hitting of stiff hands."

Without mincing words, the answer is an emphatic NO.

If you are serious about playing Blackjack - with an advantage - obtain
"Blackjack Attack, (3rd ed. only) and "The Theory of Blackjack" (5th or 6th ed.)

While you are at it, contact me for some basic mentoring:

[email protected]

[rebel4ever]

Thanks ZenMaster for your reply and your restraint I see you have to deal with lots of newbies here that always think they have found a better way. I just always try to think outside the box...

I've been playing BJ strictly recreationally for over 20 years and have always wanted to step up my game to become an AP. But I know it's not as easy as it looks in the movies. It takes dedication, practice, focus and a bankroll of course - I'm just not sure I have enough of any of those to be successful at this time - lol

[Romes]

As Zen alluded to, no. The negative counts raise the house edge because even with a negative count you're not going to hit your 18 (the negative index for hitting this would be something atrocious), but yet the dealer will make more hands to tie/beat you in negative counts.

Another quick thing I want to point out from your post is you said "so 1/3 of shoes will be positive." While using a balanced counting system over the long run of millions of hands they will work out to the frequencies you can find all over the internet, in books, etc. However, a shoe is quite often like a roller coaster. Perhaps it shoots to TC +4 in the first few decks, but then finishes negative in the last couple decks. How would you rate that shoe? Or vise versa say it shoots to TC -3 in the first few decks, you sit out, but then it comes back to TC +3 by the end so you jump in and play. How would you rate that shoe? Point being, whole shoes aren't generally positive or negative. You get a swing both ways (possibly several times) in some shoes. The idea with card counting is to play as many hands with your advantage as possible to eventually remove the variance from your expected value and thus in one simple word, win.

I hope it's not faux pas to post this, but I did write 3 articles posted on the wizard of odds sites that cover "A to Z in Card Counting." While there's 'always' something more to learn, I can guarantee you if you read, and reread these articles you'll know exactly how to have a winning game, and more importantly, mathematically prove it. http://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-...-in-Blackjack/

[KJ]

Without mincing words, the answer is an emphatic NO.

If you are serious about playing Blackjack - with an advantage - obtain "Blackjack Attack, (3rd ed. only) and "The Theory of Blackjack" (5th or 6th ed.)

While you are at it, contact me for some basic mentoring:

[email protected]

I am not exactly sure what's going on here with Flash constantly 'touting' his mentoring stuff and recruiting new people to mentor. Is there a fee involved in his services? If so that shouldn't be allowed on the site. If not I just don't get it. At one time he seemed to want to help new players, now he seems to want to sign them up to the "BJ school of Flash".

Obtaining "Blackjack Attack" is great advice. In my opinion, "The Theory of Blackjack" not so much. That is above what most players and certainly new players need to know.

But what I am really wondering is why not just answer the guys question, if you want to help him, Flash? I mean this is actually a reasonable question. And while the answer is an 'emphatic NO', why not briefly explain, that it did work that way once upon a time, in the days of good single deck games. Back then strategy change carried much more weigh and depending on the game rules, you could even gain and advantage just with changing strategy play. BUT, in today's world, with worse games and bigger house edges to overcome, the best you can do with negative index play is slightly reduce a negative expectation, in which case the best alternative is to not even be playing such a negative expectation round.

[Three]

Is there a fee involved in his services?

No. Flash just likes to help people. He has been doing this for years.

[cjjellie]

I don't post here a lot, but I read just about every post and have learned a lot. KJ, Flash has been an incredible help and tutor to me. I suspect he offers off line assistance because a lot of us, myself included, are a little intimidated by the great knowledge here and don't want to post a "dumb" question. My game has improved immensely, partially because of everyone's posts but mainly because I can ask more clarifying questions via email.

And no, I'm not paying for his help.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"But what I am really wondering is why not just answer the guys question, if you want to help him, Flash?"

Because teaching takes more than telling someone to add a bunch of +1's and -1's.
I have taught in Graduate School and I know how to teach. There are subtleties and
many non-mathematical factors to be learned. Once upon a time the obscenely rich
would not send their children to school. They would hire qualified tutors.

[seriousplayer]

Hello All -
Very new to this and just had a question about shoes with bad counts.

From what I have read the AP players goal is to get into shoes with good counts and then modify their play and bets according to the count to gain an advantage. Until the count is good, they would just flat bet and play BS trying to minimize losses while waiting for the count to improve. To further minimize this, a player could back-count and just jump in to positive count shoes but this could be tricky at some casinos and may bring heat.

So if we assume that all shuffles are random, the number of bad count shoes to neutral count shoes to good count shoes would be equal. The AP would not really have any advantage in the bad or neutral count shoes only in the high count shoes or basically in 1/3 of shoes dealt. That would mean there would be a lot of time spent playing in non-advantage situations.

In a good count shoe, the variations from BS include more doubling down, less hitting of stiff hands, more surrender to take into account the higher percentage of 10 value cards in the remaining decks.

So now to my question-
Is it possible to modify BS so that it would provide a player advantage when the count went highly negative? Maybe less doubling down, different splitting strategy, more hitting of stiff hands.

I'm guessing that if the count goes to far negative it is probably best to leave the table or wait for the next shoe - but I figure that doing that too much or only playing in high-count shoes might bring unwanted attention.

I just wonder if there would be a BS variation for negative count shoes that would increase the players advantage over just straight BS.

Might be a stupid question...

Here is the answer to you post:

https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount3.htm
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration4.htm

Hope that answered your question.