What do casinos imagine the AP threat to be?

[Stealth]

I found this question interesting.

What does the gaming industry actually imagine the threat posed by APs to be?

Ok, so along the lines of why do casinos impose all the countermeasures to AP players. I found this calculator (or a rendition of it) developed by a casino consultant to help casino management understand the cost of deck penetration in Blackjack.

Thought I might get some giggles taking it a little further.

My comments are in reference to the attached jpg.

So, the area in the squiggly red line projects the cost of cutting a 6 deck game in 13 card increments using the assumptions in the top left. The "Cost per Year to reduce penetration " row shows the incremental revenue loss to the casino as they cut deeper. And that is for one table.

With that in mind, I did some research and arrived at the data inside the squiggly blue line. Made a couple of assumptions shown at the top of the area. Wanted to take the "one table data" we just looked at and project it over the industry to see what effect deck penetration has on revenue. Now, I realize all the tables are not 6 deck and made an adjustment that the tables were actually busy only 65% of the time.

If I could bring your attention to the answer line you will see that, with these assumptions, the industry is leaving $341+MM (4+% of potential revenue on a game with a 1.5% advantage) on the table (so to speak) by cutting to 75% penetration instead of dealing to 13 remaining cards.

In fact, the Las Vegas casino line outlined in a red line takes one of our local stores and illustrates (with the same assumptions) that they are leaving $1.67MM on their tables.

I accept the potential inaccuracies of some of the assumptions, and know that this community is highly math conscious and may find issues with many of the assumptions, but the picture is compelling.

Either casino management is lost in the fear of AP or I am not getting my fair share of the gold.

Am I missing something?

Thanks for listening.

[iamjabes]

I got backed off from a place in Reno for winning $250 in two hours playing 1 X $5 to 2 X $25. That's how hard up Reno is right now BTW. So some managers do see every AP as a threat.

That's disgusting. I wonder what tipped them off b/c that's not much of a spread.

[BigJer]

That's disgusting. I wonder what tipped them off b/c that's not much of a spread.

I think it was the bet spreading itself. They do not like counting at all. Besides it's not what you do at the moment but it's the damage you can do.

[Blackriver]

That 95% number is misleading. The reason 95% of people lose on any given trip is because of a concept ironically called "gamblers ruin" (basically being under rolled) NOT because of their disadvantage. Their disadvantage is why they lose in the long run. Most people are bleeding a few hundred dollars a night and snapping off a windfall every few trips depending on the game.

[Frostbyte]

That 95% number is misleading. The reason 95% of people lose on any given trip is because of a concept ironically called "gamblers ruin" (basically being under rolled) NOT because of their disadvantage. Their disadvantage is why they lose in the long run. Most people are bleeding a few hundred dollars a night and snapping off a windfall every few trips depending on the game.

I don't think it means that 95% of visitors to a casino on any given day lose their whole roll, just that they leave with less money than they arrived with.

[mofungoo]

Here's an article about a new computer rating system for blackjack. There is a chart with strategy variations that are used to assess a player's skill. Below that the author discusses card counting as related to the impact on the casino's bottom line. Very interesting:

http://www.casinoenterprisemanagemen...k-approximator

[Norm]

IMO, such software is essentially useless.

[Aslan]

Regardless of how much of a threat APs are to casinos, they still must employee surveillance people to protect themselves against cheating and employee theft. These two areas claim far more of their bottom line than APs ever did. While you have these surveillance employees on the payroll, the thought must be, "Why not use them to deter AP activities, too." That is precisely how we get lumped in with the cheaters and thieves. It's one surveillance guarding against all forms of revenue leak. In their eyes the only difference is the amount of threat posed to their bottom line. Why do you think pit critters count the blacks? It has little or nothing to do with card counters. One dealer copping one black chip per shift adds up to $25,000 a year. Ratholing APs is a remote, peripheral benefit.

[Kat]

Regardless of how much of a threat APs are to casinos, they still must employee surveillance people to protect themselves against cheating and employee theft. These two areas claim far more of their bottom line than APs ever did. While you have these surveillance employees on the payroll, the thought must be, "Why not use them to deter AP activities, too." That is precisely how we get lumped in with the cheaters and thieves. It's one surveillance guarding against all forms of revenue leak. In their eyes the only difference is the amount of threat posed to their bottom line. Why do you think pit critters count the blacks? It has little or nothing to do with card counters. One dealer copping one black chip per shift adds up to $25,000 a year. Ratholing APs is a remote, peripheral benefit.

But if that particular dealer is stealing only one black chip per shift, his crime could easily be misinterpreted by security. I mean, he's been here for two years and every shift of his, we are always one black short, does not necessarily mean he always stole it, does it... Is circumstantial evidence enuff to get him fired?

[mofungoo]

IMO, such software is essentially useless.

And it is a hassle to use. The systems I've seen require manual data entry of every card as it comes out of the deck(s), along with the suspected AP's card play. The output of the software then goes to the Casino Manager, who is usually the only person in a large casino who has the authority to trespass a patron suspected of AP.

It is not usable in real time. Tape review is where they use it. Generally a floorperson notifies the PB, who passes the info to the Shift Boss, who initiates a skill check. If the SB feels that further action is warranted they will run a software analysis, then forward the report to the Casino Manager for action.

The paragraph that begins, "It is important to note at this point that not all counters are bad for a casino", is quite revealing and has given me some ideas that I plan to use. We know that casino personnel look at AP websites for information helpful to them. It is only right that we do the same with industry websites for our benefit.

[Aslan]

But if that particular dealer is stealing only one black chip per shift, his crime could easily be misinterpreted by security. I mean, he's been here for two years and every shift of his, we are always one black short, does not necessarily mean he always stole it, does it... Is circumstantial evidence enuff to get him fired?

You're right. They would not fire them until they caught them in the act.

[Frostbyte]

You're right. They would not fire them until they caught them in the act.

They'd certainly start watching his table a lot more closely, though.

[Aslan]

They'd certainly start watching his table a lot more closely

They watched this one dealer for a long, long time and could not see what he was doing.