Shoe game question

[lacorpo7]

Hello all.
This is my first post here.
I learned to play blackjack almost one year ago with a team in my country.
It didnt go well for me because I was studying and couldnt keep up with the travelling schedules.
I was still helped by the managers of the team to improve my game so I could play on my own.

I have access to a shoe game with the following conditions:
6D, 3:2, RS4, DAS, DOA, RSA, ES10.
The penetration is 50%.
The good thing is I can do a massive spread and I can go from 1x5 to 2x400.

I use HILO and my question is the following: would it be worth it to upgrade to Zen or Halves to get the most out of this game?
Or would the gain from switching be minimal?

PLEASE, not interested in a count debate.
If you are going to start talking about the benefit from high level counts please refrain from answering.
I just want to specifically know what the gain would be in this specific scenario.
I have ran sims but I dont trust my analysis and would love to get the input from some of the experts here.

Thank you!

[Freightman]

Minimal gain on 50% pen, I would consider as substantial. Halves tag values are very close to hi LO and the index numbers are almost completely identical.

I assume you're ramping aggressively within the modest spread indicated. A huge value of the upgraded system would be the ability to better identify marginal weakness or marginal strength at low true counts - which is a point oft missed by those espousing all you need in the 6d game is hi LO.

Every ounce of gain that you can muster with this crappy pen game, I would do my best to take.

You didn't mention surrender - I would want that info on this game which has undoubtadedly shitty SCORE, before entertaining myself simming this. Would also want your ramp schedule and your hopefully big bankroll to withstand this games high variance.

[NotEnoughHeat]

I've spent much time all around the internet trying to convince prospective counters that it's not viable to count in online live deal games since the penetration is so poor. Usually the case is 8D 50% with assorted rules, but everything save for the exact numbers should apply here as well.

While poor penetration can to some degree be mitigated by spread, it is not the case that you can turn any given poor pen game into the equivalent of a good pen game by just upping the spread. Spread is the next best way for you to increase EV for the additional variance taken on, however at any given level penetration there is an upper limit to SCORE as you increase spread before SCORE starts going down again. That means that there is only so much that spread can do to save a game. 50% is without a doubt, beyond repair. Looking at the sims for my game, 6D H17 DOA DAS INS nSur, 60% pen maxes out at 14.86 SCORE and 67,295 N0. I personally can't afford to be stingy by only playing games 50 and up (where can you even find these?) but I wouldn't touch this with a 10 foot pole even if you could spread from 1 to a million.

[lacorpo7]

You didn't mention surrender - I would want that info on this game which has undoubtadedly shitty SCORE, before entertaining myself simming this. Would also want your ramp schedule and your hopefully big bankroll to withstand this games high variance.

Hi freightman.
I did mention ES10 in the set of rules.
I agree that with crappy penetration im interested in squizzing every ounce of EV, but Im also interested in reducing variance.
What I want is to figure out how much that gain really is to see if its worth it.
My bankroll is 100k and im willing to go 2x400 (table max) at +1.
Thanks.

[lacorpo7]

I've spent much time all around the internet trying to convince prospective counters that it's not viable to count in online live deal games since the penetration is so poor. Usually the case is 8D 50% with assorted rules, but everything save for the exact numbers should apply here as well.

Not at all.
The main problem with online blackjack is not penetration, is speed.
I dont have that problem here.

[Freightman]

I'll sim it later today when I go down to my office. Won't be accurate since I don't think CVCX will show pen for 3/6. Off the cuff guess of 5-10% differential depending on indices used. Also, another factor - are u playing ENHC, nhc ir hold card - ENHC will reduce your win rate. Last but not least, subject to sim confirmation - rules are good with house edge approx .45-.48. With such a razor thin game, you should consider half true counts for ramping. In other words, a super razor thin edge at true 1.0, decent edge at true 1.5 and a good edge at true 1.99 - based on floored sims. Just my .02.

[lacorpo7]

The game deals a hole card, does not peek for blackjack and is OBO.

[Three]

S17 or H17?

With a 160:1 spread it is all about betting accuracy which is different than BC. The BC of Hilo is competitive with other counts but its betting accuracy is not. This is seen when you look at the SD of the advantage bell curve for each TC. You bet by the curves average but you are betting all the advantages in the range the same. The wider the range of the bell curve the less accurate you are betting. Choose a level 2 count to your liking that counts the 4 and 5 as +2 and as few other cards as +2 as possible. Obviously Hiopt2 is the one that fits that bill the most but you may not want to go ace neutral.

Now you are talking about betting everything +1 hilo or greater as 2x400? That just seems like a really bad idea to me. The swings will be too large. The HE on the game is small, I guess, but you never said H17 or S17 so who knows. Some players specialize in this kind of insanity. All they care about is that the casino take huge action without sweating it. It may do well to hear from one of them like SmallCap.

[lacorpo7]

Sorry I forgot to mention that, its S17.

[Three]

What happens with the half shoeing is TC frequencies shift drastically toward TC 0. So the range of TC's is shorter and large magnitude TC's frequency is much less frequent. With this being the case you want a count that very accurately identifies small moves in advantage rather than averages a wide range of advantages to get it's bin's average advantage. Hilo is poorly suited to the challenge of defining small moves in advantage accurately. This ability is what is required to keep as many disadvantage deck compositions in the $5 bet bin (keep as many disadvantage deck compositions as possible from being bet at 2x400), and bet as many advantage deck compositions at 2x$400 (keep as many advantage deck compositions from being bet at $5 as possible). The formula of the 4 and 5 being tagged higher (+2) than the other low cards (+1) is what you are looking for. Hiopt2/ASC fits the bill best for an ace neutral count and Zen fits the bill best for both an ace compromise count or ace reckoned count. I would go with the ace neutral but I have always side counted aces. Well actually I would go even more complicated than that but for non-custom counts I would opt for Hiopt2/ASC and full indices.

[stopgambling]

these kind of insanity needs halves plus insurance side count plus hi ot2 pe , plus excessive ,aggressive wong out ! most important of all NO HEAT.! aLSO You gonna need some good side count that play like Single deck game. good luck doing all that . Possible but ,..maybe 2 -3 people could make it work.

[stopgambling]

that is where Tarzan comes in.

[lacorpo7]

these kind of insanity needs halves plus insurance side count plus hi ot2 pe , plus excessive ,aggressive wong out ! most important of all NO HEAT.! aLSO You gonna need some good side count that play like Single deck game. good luck doing all that . Possible but ,..maybe 2 -3 people could make it work.

What the hell are you talking about?
Aggressive wong out when Im playing a x160 spread?
Please, spare me.

Tthree, any references as to where I can read about HiOpt II?