What are the chances of busting with a twelve vs. 2,3,7,8,9,10,A?

[BigJer]

I looked it up at:

http://www.blackjackage.com/bust-out-rate.php

In the second chart it says that "the average bust rate" is 31%. Does that make sense? If that's true I am way out of the statistical bounds for busting with a 12: I think mine is at least 75%.

What say you?

[Romes]

Check out Shack's appendix also...

ER's for 12 v:

12

-0.253390

-0.233691

-0.213537

-0.193271

-0.170526

-0.212848

-0.271575

-0.340013

-0.381043

-0.350540

That's just the returns though... if you want to know how often you'll bust on 12, just do some math:

1 Deck... You get dealt a 12:

1) 6-6... disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 16 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 30.8%
2) 7-5... disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 16 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 30.8%
3) 8-4... disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 16 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 30.8%
4) 9-3... disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 16 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 30.8%
5) 10-2...disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 15 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 28.9%

This is only for the next draw, not multiple draws for a complete analysis, but I hope you can see where this is going =)

We all go through those rough patches where every 12 is met with a 10. I've had weekend trips where I would bet you money my bust rate on 12 was 90% or over. In hindsight though, this is just one small weekend and in "the long run" it means nothing.

[BigJer]

Check out Shack's appendix...

ER's for 12 v:

12

-0.253390

-0.233691

-0.213537

-0.193271

-0.170526

-0.212848

-0.271575

-0.340013

-0.381043

-0.350540

I saw that when I was looking it up. Twelve is pretty bad.

[Romes]

If you don't hit you can't bust.

If you always surrender you'll always WIN 50%

[Frank Galvin]

If you don't hit you can't bust.

If you don't play, you can't bust either.

[Frank Galvin]

If you always surrender you'll always WIN 50%

Or LOSE 50%.

[Shadowless]

1 Deck... You get dealt a 12:

1) 6-6... disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 16 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 30.8%
2) 7-5... disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 16 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 30.8%
3) 8-4... disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 16 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 30.8%
4) 9-3... disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 16 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 30.8%
5) 10-2...disregarding the dealers up card, this leaves 52 cards remaining with 15 cards busting you. Odds of busting (on the next draw) = 28.9%

50 cards would be remaining since two are already in your hand.

16/49 if dealer shows non-ten, or 32.65%.
15/49 if dealer shows non-ten and you have 10-2, or 30.61%.
15/49 if dealer shows a ten, or 30.61%.
14/49 if dealer shows a ten and you have 10-2, or 28.57%.

[Romes]

50 cards would be remaining since two are already in your hand.

16/49 if dealer shows non-ten, or 32.65%.
15/49 if dealer shows non-ten and you have 10-2, or 30.61%.
15/49 if dealer shows a ten, or 30.61%.
14/49 if dealer shows a ten and you have 10-2, or 28.57%.

I hate simple mistakes when you're moving too fast lol... Thanks for the catch.

[Smartblackjack]

Disregarding the upcard on a pair of 6,6 is dumb if the dealer has a 2-6 you should spilt eliminating your busting chance.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

" ... if the dealer has a 2-6 you should spilt eliminating your busting chance."

Elimination ? I think not.

[Smartblackjack]

Elimination ? I think not.

You can still lose the hand or worse lose both hands but your chance of busting is eliminated.

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[Gronbog]

You could still bust one or both of the new hands.

[Smartblackjack]

You could still bust one or both of the new hands.

Not if you follow basic strategy if you get another 6 you should split it up to 3 times to make 4 hands. If you get a hard 13 or higher you should stay so your chance of busting is really low because you would need to draw 3-3 or 2-4 to your 6's than hit a 10 to bust following basic strategy.

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