Up in the air

[Orangechip2]

If you were handed an offer to join a team that the requirement was $7,000 original investment, and the hourly ev was around $50.00 yet your top bet was $400x2 at a TC+7 would you take the offer? The ror is close to 5%.

I said for me to join the team I need a serious change in the bet ramp - simply because you can play red chips with roughly a .3% ror and the hourly ev would nearly the same ~$50, so why the hell would someone risk the variance of $400x2, or the original investment to make an average of $50 an hour. Just doesn't add up to me. Why go with a team approach where I'm waiting until +7TC to get the money out, when my current ramp I'm maxing out at +4.5TC, with a much larger roll? Does this not add up to anyone else? I've tried talking to the manager about how this would never work and this philosphy is a bit ridiculous, he insists that we grind up a big roll together and slowly increase our 'unit size'.

Here are some major issues I have:

1.) we would hardly ever get any max bets out considering the proposed idea is max out at TC7 - I've legit not seen a +7 TC in a few hundred hours of playing..
2.) the variance of losing a 16 fold with 2x$400 bets out for $50 an hour isn't too appealing to someone thinking of investing into this.
3.) his suggested ramp is something like 25 40 80x2 120x2 160x2 200x2 400x2 = too much thinking for me and I told him straight up that I would 90% forsure mess the ramp up. I also told him rainbow wagers will slow down the game. Personally, I like the white rabbit approach, or a typical bet ramp - 25 50 100 200 400 & max out at 600x2.
4.) the hourly ev is way too low for a 14-15k roll, IMO.

I can add more reasons this isn't an easy decision but instead would like you alls opinions on this matter.

If you need any additional info to form an opinion please let me know.

[Freightman]

Haven't simmed this - simply doesn't look right for avg $50 per hour. What are rules, table conditions etc. What are the team rules - doesn't feel right to me either. If it doesn't feel right, usually best to stay away.

[Orangechip2]

Mix of s/17 and h/17 with and without surrender - both 6 and 8 decks only, no DD or 4D games. Team rules, playing with < 3 people, nmse games, wong out on strict -1, $1000 loss max per session (even if TC calls for maxbets).
I know it def doesn't seem right, but I know forsure the manager isn't up to anything shiesty. I have teamed with him on another very small and very quick operation and made some money, but nothing as serious as throwing nearly 10gs each in a combined roll. If I failed to provide enough info please address.

[Freightman]

Mix of s/17 and h/17 with and without surrender - both 6 and 8 decks only, no DD or 4D games. Team rules, playing with < 3 people, nmse games, wong out on strict -1, $1000 loss max per session (even if TC calls for maxbets).
I know it def doesn't seem right, but I know forsure the manager isn't up to anything shiesty. I have teamed with him on another very small and very quick operation and made some money, but nothing as serious as throwing nearly 10gs each in a combined roll. If I failed to provide enough info please address.

So, you're even with TC 7, bet 2x600, now down 1200, and Wong out even though the count still justifies 2x600? - that's what I think I'm hearing. Also explains the shitty hourly with the ramp indicated. Stay away.

[Three]

For risking that kind of money you should be making hundreds an hour. The way you laid it out it doesn't seem hard it seems simple. Don't do it. Is the EV right? I mean I go to a lot of trouble not to leave anything on the table and limit the swings at the same time. I know the keep it simple approach leaves a lot on the table but how could they leave this much? What kind of crap game or what kind of overhead are the playing/financing? Why isn't the spread in green chip units? It looks like it is based on $40 units. Why not use $50 units? This would keep the bets all green chips. The dealers hate rainbow stacks and they slow the game down while making the dealers work harder. If they are planning on betting like this and stiffing the dealer they will get unpopular quick. That doesn't bode well for longevity. A $14-15K BR? Are you joining 1 person to be on a 2 man team or just being asked to double the teams BR? Now I am not familiar with how playing on a shared BR affects RoR. I know it allows you to get to your n0 much quicker. Are you sure that your RoR numbers are right? It looks like he is leaving a lot on the table by ramping too slowly. A ramp like 25, 50, 150, 250 or (2x150), 400 or (2x300), 500 or (2x375), 600 or (2x450) seems a lot more reasonable. That should more than double the EV while making the dealers job easier and speeding up the game. Breaking down every bet for each payoff will really slow the game down with his rainbow spread.

[Three]

$1000 loss max per session (even if TC calls for maxbets).

This team rule is insane. You lose 2 max bets after a slide getting to max bet and you have to leave a huge advantage. If he thinks the EV is $50/hr it will actually be a lot less. Never start a shoe unless you have enough money to finish it. $1K is definitely not enough to start a shoe.

[Bodarc]

why the hell would someone risk the variance of $400x2, or the original investment to make an average of $50 an hour. Just doesn't add up to me.

Why indeed? You do not join a team just so you can say you play on a team. You join a team to reach the long run faster, reduce your RoR and/or make more money than you can solo. Do you think this is going to happen?

[Orangechip2]

You do not join a team just so you can say you play on a team. You join a team to reach the long run faster, reduce your RoR and/or make more money than you can solo. Do you think this is going to happen?

Thanks for addressing Bodarc- to answer your question; with this approach no, no and NO ! I tried the spotter/bp idea and he wasnt a fan.

[Orangechip2]

For risking that kind of money you should be making hundreds an hour.

My point exactly. When he said the hourly ev was $50 my jaw legit dropped. I said "you must be simming something wrong" and then I thought, ohhhhhhhh we are not maxing out until TC7.

I am being asked to join a 2man team- me and him only.

I am almost certin our ror numbers are correct. It is right around 5%, but i think its so low because again, we are not maxing out until tc7.

I 100% agree with you about the ramp you suggested- his reply to that earlier when we met up was "well if you want to play with a 30% ror lets do it". didn't really add up to me.

Thanks T3

[Orangechip2]

So, you're even with TC 7, bet 2x600, now down 1200, and Wong out even though the count still justifies 2x600? - that's what I think I'm hearing. Also explains the shitty hourly with the ramp indicated. Stay away.

I think you may have took my current spread and mixed it into the team plan.
His plan was to have 400x2 out at TC7 only, any other time we'd be ramping by each TC by $40x2. yes, even when the TC is up in the rafters he suggest walking, to 'fight another day' essentially - terrible idea.
What I referred to as the 600x2 is my current top bet at 4.5, opposed to waiting until 7 to get out 400x2.

[LVBear584]

If you were handed an offer to join a team that the requirement was $7,000 original investment, and the hourly ev was around $50.00 yet your top bet was $400x2 at a TC+7 would you take the offer? The ror is close to 5%. ...

This "offer" is so ridiculous as to not even pass the smell test. The person making it either lacks a reasonable understanding of the game or is trying to scam you somehow. Run away.

[Ryemo]

This "offer" is so ridiculous as to not even pass the smell test. The person making it either lacks a reasonable understanding of the game or is trying to scam you somehow. Run away.

Agree with Bear. But it sounds like you already answered your own question. Why would you hang over the edge of Niagra Falls for a cup of water, when there's a water fountain next door?

[ZenKinG]

If you were handed an offer to join a team that the requirement was $7,000 original investment, and the hourly ev was around $50.00 yet your top bet was $400x2 at a TC+7 would you take the offer? The ror is close to 5%.

I said for me to join the team I need a serious change in the bet ramp - simply because you can play red chips with roughly a .3% ror and the hourly ev would nearly the same ~$50, so why the hell would someone risk the variance of $400x2, or the original investment to make an average of $50 an hour. Just doesn't add up to me. Why go with a team approach where I'm waiting until +7TC to get the money out, when my current ramp I'm maxing out at +4.5TC, with a much larger roll? Does this not add up to anyone else? I've tried talking to the manager about how this would never work and this philosphy is a bit ridiculous, he insists that we grind up a big roll together and slowly increase our 'unit size'.

Here are some major issues I have:

1.) we would hardly ever get any max bets out considering the proposed idea is max out at TC7 - I've legit not seen a +7 TC in a few hundred hours of playing..
2.) the variance of losing a 16 fold with 2x$400 bets out for $50 an hour isn't too appealing to someone thinking of investing into this.
3.) his suggested ramp is something like 25 40 80x2 120x2 160x2 200x2 400x2 = too much thinking for me and I told him straight up that I would 90% forsure mess the ramp up. I also told him rainbow wagers will slow down the game. Personally, I like the white rabbit approach, or a typical bet ramp - 25 50 100 200 400 & max out at 600x2.
4.) the hourly ev is way too low for a 14-15k roll, IMO.

I can add more reasons this isn't an easy decision but instead would like you alls opinions on this matter.

If you need any additional info to form an opinion please let me know.

Better off teaming up with me down the road. I plan on making the biggest team out there since MIT. But this is about 5 years down the road when I make about a couple million off of this solo. The hard part is the trust factor. You really have to find people you can trust with large amounts of money, not just so they dont fold under pressure, but knowing they will report their actual win size to you and not hide money from you and pocket it for themselves.