Ramp on bet spread question

[DD11]

I play a game with a -.65% HE. It is my local casino so that's why I'm going to play it. My question is since I don't have an advantage until TC +2 how should my bet ramp be? My spread is 1-12 (5-60), im just starting out. I was wondering should I go TC 1 and below 5, TC +2 15, TC+3 30, TC+4 60.
I read that TC+5 are kinda rare and that a lot of semi pro and pro players get there max bet out at TC+4 so is this what some of yall recommend me doing? That way it would appear as if I'm doubling my bet as a regular ploppy

[ZenMaster_Flash]

You need to learn to use an optimal [or near optimal] spread.

With Hi-Lo and a nasty H.E. (like 0.6%) you'll have but a small edge at T.C. +2

[BlackJackMonster]

Could you elaborate a bit more on the optimal spread? I use cvdata to run simulation to get the advantage on each TC, and use half a Kelly divided by standard deviation^2 to get the bet. However, it is a bit different from what the optimal bet provided by the simulation(cvcx).


I have always wanted to know the algorithm/formula for the optimal bet, but have not found it yet.


Any insight is greatly appreciated!

You need to learn to use an optimal [or near optimal] spread.

With Hi-Lo and a nasty H.E. (like 0.6%) you'll have but a small edge at T.C. +2

[BoSox]

Could you elaborate a bit more on the optimal spread?

What I think he means is for DD11 to avoid making almost all of those $5 dollar bets where he is at a disadvantage, if that is what he did mean I agree wholeheartedly.

[BoSox]

I play a game with a -.65% HE. It is my local casino so that's why I'm going to play it.

An advantage player does not think like this.

[Stealth]

I play a game with a -.65% HE. It is my local casino so that's why I'm going to play it. My question is since I don't have an advantage until TC +2 how should my bet ramp be? My spread is 1-12 (5-60), im just starting out. I was wondering should I go TC 1 and below 5, TC +2 15, TC+3 30, TC+4 60.
I read that TC+5 are kinda rare and that a lot of semi pro and pro players get there max bet out at TC+4 so is this what some of yall recommend me doing? That way it would appear as if I'm doubling my bet as a regular ploppy

If I presume you are counting(?) and ramping at a True Count then you need to provide the size of your bankroll to determine an optimal ramp. Since you are betting red chips, this level won't matter to the pit.

At what TC I get the max bet out is a function of how much risk I want to take with the bankroll I have available.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

"I have always wanted to know the algorithm/formula for the optimal bet, but have not found it yet."

Software can provide you with an optimal bet ramp;

without a guarantee that you'll not be 86'd from the casino.

If you want my handy dandy 'back-of-the-napkin' method, you can follow this:

Each digit of True Count moves your advantage/disadvantage by a set (averaged) amount.

That is key to this process.

So, for this example, I will assume Hi-Lo, as you are a newbie;

and I will take the house edge as 0.61%

Hi-Lo advantages move by 0.50% per digit of True Count increase / decrease.

You are starting off with an expectation of -0.61%

At TC +1 you can subtract 0.50% so that you are laboring at a cost of -0.11%

At TC +2 you can add another 0.50% [-0.11] + [+.50%] = 0.39%

You now have a small, but not insignificant, advantage.

BUT expectation is a two way street.

Obviously if you were at e.g. TC -2 your disadvantage would be very costly

[-0.61] + [1.00%] = -1.61%

The important question is where to set your Max Bet ?

That MAXIMUM amount is dependent on your bankroll size, the strength

of your chosen count, the number of decks and the penetration found.

I like to use a TWO PERCENT (2%) advantage to make significantly sized bets.

In the example spread that we have started here that would mean 4 TC over

what we need to negate the withering House Edge. We know that to be TC +2

Ergo, +6 will suffice for you to place your Max Bet.

You then work backwards down to TC 0 [ZERO], as a game this poor should be

walked away from below that point.

A good example for this spread would be:

+1 bet $ 5
+2 bet $10
+3 bet $20
+4 bet $40
+5 bet $50
+6 bet $60
>+6 ... stay at that bet level

This is a 12-1 spread ($5 to $60)

Basically you can bet the T.C. times $5 red chips.

Incidentally, You'll do well to memorize all Indices

for departing from Basic Strategy between -1 and +6

(at least); and learn to "floor" your True Count.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Here is a technical paper on how to compute an Optimal Betting Ramp ("spread"):

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ouzd44ajfamwvku/Optimal_Betting_Spreads-howto.pdf?dl=0

WAY too mathematical for my aging brain.

[DD11]

An advantage player does not think like this.

One that is a new counter looking to practice because the next closest casino is 6 hours away with the same rules also... it's still a beatable game from what I understand sooo what's the problem? I'm not playing a 6:5 CSM 50% pen game.
If I had a .3HE with in a couple hours away Id play it.... But I don't im in the south

[DD11]

Here is a technical paper on how to compute an Optimal Betting Ramp ("spread"):

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ouzd44ajfamwvku/Optimal_Betting_Spreads-howto.pdf?dl=0

WAY too mathematical for my aging brain.

Thanks Zen that explained it a lot. I have a 6k bankroll I know it's not a lot but I can continue to put into it with my job and hopefully being on the right side of standard deviations lol. so I assume that with max betting at TC+6 I probably won't get my max bet out that much? I'm new and have a lot to learn before I even go. But I am currently studying indices now

[ZenMaster_Flash]

DD11,

There is NO reason to conceal the name of the casino

in question where the House Edge is so repugnant.

I believe that you may be misjudging the House Edge.

Please do so now.

[DD11]

DD11,

There is NO reason to conceal the name of the casino

in question where the House Edge is so repugnant.

I believe that you may be misjudging the House Edge.

Please do so now.

It's mainly horeshoe tunica. I haven't been to the other 7 in town but I hear that the rules are the exact same sadly.

[BoSox]

It's mainly horeshoe tunica. I haven't been to the other 7 in town but I hear that the rules are the exact same sadly.

There is so much more to the game than just the rules!