Positive Count Frequency and Shoe Size (with apologies in advance to DS)

[Oneoffthecount]

Ok, I may feel like my IQ and my personal shoe size are roughly equivalent for asking this but I'm reading and enjoying DS's book BJ Attack, Third Addition. Chapter two examines playing styles and among other things impacts on SD and win rates for back-counting versus play all in various shoe sizes. According to Wong's frequency distribution when looking at 100 hands in a 4, 6 and 8 deck shoe, the number of hands at TC +1 and above drops as shoe size goes up. 29.18 for 4. 26.77 for 6 and 24.51 for 8. All other factors appear to be constant with penetration at 75% and 100 hands per hour. Is the reason for a less frequent TC count that it requires a higher real count to reach a true count of +1 because the denominator for calculating true count will be larger in the eight shoe deck, requiring a higher real count to yield the same TC?

[Three]

According to Wong's frequency distribution when looking at 100 hands in a 4, 6 and 8 deck shoe, the number of hands at TC +1 and above drops as shoe size goes up. 29.18 for 4. 26.77 for 6 and 24.51 for 8.

You meant frequency not number in this sentence.

Is the reason for a less frequent TC count that it requires a higher real count to reach a true count of +1 because the denominator for calculating true count will be larger in the eight shoe deck, requiring a higher real count to yield the same TC?

The cards change by the RC. When you have more cards yet to be played you divide that by a higher number to get a TC. So with more decks you need to hit a higher RC to get the same TC. So off the top the RC to get TC +1 after 1 round is:
8 deck RC +8
6 deck RC +6
4 deck RC +4
2 deck RC +2
1 deck RC +1

This type of distortion continues as you play and is reflected in the TC frequencies of the entire sample.

[Freightman]

I

You meant frequency not number in this sentence.




The cards change by the RC. When you have more cards yet to be played you divide that by a higher number to get a TC. So with more decks you need to hit a higher RC to get the same TC. So off the top the RC to get TC +1 after 1 round is:
8 deck RC +8
6 deck RC +6
4 deck RC +4
2 deck RC +2
1 deck RC +1

This type of distortion continues as you play and is reflected in the TC frequencies of the entire sample.

Which further explains why there is a lesser percentage of high counts as deck count goes up, thus making, for example, 8 decks less desirable.

[Romes]

I

Which further explains why there is a lesser percentage of high counts as deck count goes up, thus making, for example, 8 decks less desirable.

For the majority of the time... If you happen upon an 8D game with very good PEN (87.5% or greater) then the frequencies near the end of those shoes will yield a wild array of counts. Of course such an opportunity is rare, but it exists. I know of a place where I can find numerous tables with 1/2 deck to 1 deck cut off on their 8D game. This deeper PEN will change the static frequencies you read about and make them more desirable.

[Freightman]

For the majority of the time... If you happen upon an 8D game with very good PEN (87.5% or greater) then the frequencies near the end of those shoes will yield a wild array of counts. Of course such an opportunity is rare, but it exists. I know of a place where I can find numerous tables with 1/2 deck to 1 deck cut off on their 8D game. This deeper PEN will change the static frequencies you read about and make them more desirable.

You have raised an interesting point. An 8d game, in negative territory, is unending boredom. An 8d, with a juicy count, usually stays juicy for a long time. Haven't played a lot of 8d, though my biggest shoes came off of them , with unending high counts.

A problem though is when you are playing in a low table population with a crap count - you Wong out to where?

[Three]

A problem though is when you are playing in a low table population with a crap count - you Wong out to where?

The snack bar, the hot babe or the rest room. Or look to other opportunities besides BJ for a brief interlude. Most should have at least VUX in their repertoire if not many other advantage opportunities.

[Oneoffthecount]

I also wait to leave until I loose one at -.5 true count to leave or if I've lost two in a row under a +.5 true count. Looking frustrated as I can by the loses as I go. I"ve really got to find some 6 deck games it appears, my local area is almost all 8 deck. I never knew how much of a penalty I was paying. I think I wong the wrong number....

[Romes]

I also wait to leave until I loose one at -.5 true count to leave or if I've lost two in a row under a +.5 true count. Looking frustrated as I can by the loses as I go. I"ve really got to find some 6 deck games it appears, my local area is almost all 8 deck. I never knew how much of a penalty I was paying. I think I wong the wrong number....

The difference between 6D and 8D with the same rules is .02%, 'almost' negligible. Most places w/ 8D games have tons of them. If you can't find 1 of 1,000 reasons to wong out, well then... =P

It is tougher to wong out an 8D game though in the beginning/middle. I like to have 2 other players at the table to eat the bad cards while I take a phone call, break because I've lost too many in a row etc, etc. The middle/end of the 8D is where you can get the super high counts that last for decks and decks, which is very very profitable. It is tougher work to sift through the first 4 decks of an 8D game, but the rewards can be quite nice. It just takes patients to ignore the poor count shoes and move on to the next.

[Three]

Well the difference is a lot more to a counter and you did a good job of summing up why. You do have to adjust your playing style some to equalize the bigger difference but there is the benefit that you also described of more sustained big betting opportunities when they do come. Nice post Romes.

[bigplayer]

About 1 shoe in 5 turns substantially positive when at least 1.5 decks are cutoff. For the same number of cards cutoff 8 deck shoes have a slightly less frequency of big counts, but it's only a very minor difference. A 7/8 shoe and a 5/6 shoe have almost the exact same count frequencies and win rates with a slight edge for the six deck games. When comparing a 75% pen six deck game (1.5 cut) with a 75% pen eight deck (2 deck cut) the six deck is VASTLY superior. Fortunately casinos lose a ton of money by cutting off that many cards so most will deal substantially deeper and just fade the fact that the game might be easier for an expert player to beat in order to make much more money from square players.