An Open Letter to KJ

[KJ]

I

You really need to loosen your shorts, and let's not mince, since you don't seem to mind mincing - seems to me that you're picking your spots to place your misguided umbrage. As for Tbonz, who you've characterized a a first rate pro - based on his responses, it would seem that your assessment is a fair and correct one - and as I mentioned previously, if aggrieved, he most certainly would have responded. It would further seem, based on his response, that he was not at all bothered by my comments.

Now, since you are so inflamed regarding protecting the strong, why not divert some of that energy to protecting the weak, those who could really use the support.

Look frieghtman, I am not going to keep going back and forth with you. I feel like many of your posts directed at me are meant to instigate a back and forth.

I have absolutely no idea what your last comment regarding protecting the strong and /or protecting the weak is in reference to. Absolutely none.

As per your line about Tbonz not being bothered, I said he probably wasn't bothered before he posted his response. I know he would not care one bit. But that doesn't make those responses right.

The fact is this site has 'lost' many of the professional and knowledgeable players that posted and contributed here. Some left on their own. Obviously a couple left rather publically several months ago. But I am talking much more that. If you look through the list of knowledgeable, professional or professional level posters that post regularly on the other site, you will see many names, that used to post here too and no longer do. I don't want to get into any of the 'whys' and who's at fault for that.

But I would like to see this site return to a little more 'diversity' with more voices of professional type players that have succeeded at this game for some measure of time and get away from the scenario of the 3 'wisemen' (not meant as an insult, just a little humor), T3, Flash and now you, making the vast majority of the posts here. I am not questioning anyone success or qualifications, but the fact is some of the ideas and methods you guys are promoting ARE NOT the consensus of the professional level players of the community. I just don't think that is an ideal situation for a site made up of mostly newer and lower level players to be hearing one minority position on a number of topics.

So, when another highly qualified, highly successful player who rarely posts, does emerge, as Tbonz did this week, I don't want to see his comments met with a bunch of negative, name-calling 'suggestive' comments, whether they were directly or indirectly directed at him. I would much prefer a more welcoming tone, even if people disagree with his perspective (as even I did), so the site and it's members can hear a variety of opinions, especially from people who have some measure of success.

Without that, and with the status quo of just a few members often with the same view on different subjects dominating discussion here, I just can't continue to participate. I don't mean that as a threat, and I hope you don't respond with some comment about me being a crybaby. I very much want to continue to participate here. I have been fighting hard with myself to continue and that is why I am fighting for a more 'welcoming' tone, so that we may attract more successful people that we all can continue to benefit from.

[Stealth]

Guys,

Can you just PM each other with this stuff. If I want to listen to dribble about other people I will call my ex-wife.

[Freightman]

OY!

[Three]

First I would like to reiterate that KJ pointing out where someone is coming from and that he sees them as very experienced players worth listening to is very useful information.

I am not questing anyone success or qualification, but the fact is some of the ideas and methods you guys are promoting ARE NOT the consensus of the professional level players of the community. I just don't think that is an ideal situation for a site made up of mostly newer and lower level players to be hearing one minority position on a number of topics.

That said there are diametrically opposed things when new players are seeking guidance. First they are new and may need to crawl then walk etc to be successful although a small percentage may have the ability to and patience (a key part of the equation) to start into counting at a more advanced level. I mentioned patience because the learning curve is steeper so you must understand it will take longer to be ready to enter a casino but when you enter you will be more prepared rather than starting too early and knowing just enough to be your own worst enemy as many do if they counting part is too easy.

Second the advice of people with huge BR's that need not worry about variance and swings is not good advice for someone that is BR challenged which many newbies are.

Now these two things are diametrically opposed in most cases. You may have a small BR but don't have the skills to lower RoR and play to a higher EV with higher bets at the same RoR for your BR. You may have the abilities to do the latter but by following the start by crawling method you put yourself at unnecessary risk. The question is which is the bad advice for any individual. The big BR pros that KJ thinks everyone should listen are dismissing things that will make your success as a BR challenged player because they have no effect on them but they may be the thing that saves a small BR player. We may be talking about things as easy as learning another 30 indices.

I have been fighting hard with myself to continue and that is why I am fighting for a more 'welcoming' tone, so that we may attract more successful people that we all can continue to benefit from.

I agree with KJ 100% on this. He seems to think I am out to get him or something but that couldn't be further from the truth. I have been his ally from the shadows through this and have tried to be understanding and helpful in his transition. The strength of advice from a group is its diversity. If we all agree that is not helpful. Diversity of opinion forces the one being advised to do research on his own unless he is a fool that wants to make an uninformed guess on what advice best fits him and his situation. This is never a bad thing. KJ seems to want a sight that spoon-feeds the answers to questions in consensus backing up his viewpoint. I doubt that is actually the case but all these theatrics seem to suggest that. We need a diverse group that feels free to speak their mind in a way that suggests camaraderie which is what KJ is suggesting. Just express you view and respect another view even as you state an argument against it.

There is no benefit to anyone by burning good games. I read posts from people playing in jurisdictions that can't back them off but only use countermeasures to make them not want to play. The countermeasure they haven't considered is making the actual game so bad that they would not play it. That would also hurt the casinos so they are unlikely to do it unless they feel they have to do it. Try to make sure a bunch of AP's don't play so aggressively that they feel they must do this. Of course they can always pay someone to start a fight with you in the casino and after beating the hell out of you they ban you for life for disorderly conduct in their casino. If you are disciplined enough to take an asswhooping without fighting back you may be able to return but if they will go to those lengths to get rid of you why would you want to return.

[Freightman]

KJ, let's make a deal!
First, I'll preface it by saying I think you have you a lot to offer this site, and for the sake of argument, I agree with about 50% of what u say, and disagree with 50% - I really don't know what the percentages are.
Second, don't bounce around between quitting, trying to make it work comments, bad mouthing etc - it just makes u look bad. Everyone knows, including yourself, that you really prefer to participate.
Third, I guarantee I will not needle you on the above point, as I have done in the past, regarding the flip flop stuff. - and for that matter, any other issue, whatever they may be. This includes you, and items mentioned in some of your commentary.
Fourth, I guarantee, as I hope you will, future debate is civil, okay to be spirited, and for that matter, okay to be very spirited, provided the professionalism is maintained.

I am not your enemy.

Deal?

[BoSox]

Now these two things are diametrically opposed in most cases. You may have a small BR but don't have the skills to lower RoR and play to a higher EV with higher bets at the same RoR for your BR. You may have the abilities to do the latter but by following the start by crawling method you put yourself at unnecessary risk. The question is which is the bad advice for any individual. The big BR pros that KJ thinks everyone should listen are dismissing things that will make your success as a BR challenged player because they have no effect on them but they may be the thing that saves a small BR player. We may be talking about things as easy as learning another 30 indices.

I find the above quote both very insulting,and arrogant at the same time. I not only disagree with the above quote,but I do not like the insinuation that well bankrolled pro's are dismissing things that COULD help the small BR player. I have been playing successfully for a long time and I strongly recommend the slower more conservative approach as Kj does. Furthermore you seem like a bully who thinks he has all the right answers.

BoSox

[Three]

I find the above quote both very insulting,and arrogant at the same time. I not only disagree with the above quote,but I do not like the insinuation that well bankrolled pro's are dismissing things that COULD help the small BR player. I have been playing successfully for a long time and I strongly recommend the slower more conservative approach as Kj does. Furthermore you seem like a bully who thinks he has all the right answers.

I am not sure why you misunderstood me. You would think the last statement would bear out what I was saying.

We may be talking about things as easy as learning another 30 indices.

Small BR players are not necessarily new players with no experience. When you bump up against an artificial betting boundary like a table limit or tolerance threshold. It can affect the value of complexity. What really amplifies the gain is bumping up against a lower boundary. After I posted a thread on this affect someone ran the sims for his own game and discovered more indices gained him 40% because of being able to bet more with the same RoR. He posted it in the thread. Without the artificial boundary the gain for more indices would have been much much smaller. The big BR player is never having an issue that his spread is necessarily cramped by a small end betting limit. They never bother running the sims to see just how much the difference is because it does't apply to them. The gain is more from being able to bet a higher top bet at the same RoR than it is from the gain seen flat betting from the plays. It is like RA indices. More certainty in one area affects optimal bets for a set RoR.

I am sorry you never investigated things that don't apply to you. Perhaps you will take the time to run an optimal spread with the same small BR and the same RoR and see what the gain from more indices actually is in this situation instead of deciding how your spread is affected is the same way others are affected (I could post them but then the ones that never bothered to do the sims themselves would accuse me of cherry picking. It is easier to just have those naysayers see for themselves. If they tweak around with the BR they will see that as at the BR becomes smaller any gains whether from more indices or anything else are amplified more and more). I am certain you will not only be surprised, you will also be amazed. In some cases you can even use a 10:1 spread instead of a 8:1 spread or another even larger spread depending on the initial spread for fewer indices at the same RoR. If there was no lower limit you would use the same ratio spread and but at slightly lower bets for less indices which would have a lesser affect that would not surprise you.

If a newbie is concerned about memorizing indices being too hard they will probably lose their BR because memorizing indices is the easiest thing you have to do to count cards. If that is too hard for them they will never be able to do the much harder things they must do.

You small BR players run the sims on what you are considering doing. You are in the most vulnerable part of your playing career. Don't just take someones word for anything, check it out for yourself. You will not only find what is best for you but will learn lots of stuff you wouldn't have otherwise. Then you can make an informed decision based on the sim results and the parts of the game that can't be simmed.

[KJ]

For what it's worth, and for anyone not familiar because he doesn't post here often, Bosox is another of these highly qualified players that we should be encouraging to participate more rather than talking down to.

He can and will (<- lol) correct me if I am wrong, but while I believe he doesn't play professionally, mostly because he is smart enough not to have taken the 'leap' and put all his eggs in one basket, he is a very serious player, with decades of experience under his belt. T3, you jumping to the conclusion that he is a small BR, low level player, who hasn't "investigated things" is 100% inaccurate. He is a very knowledgeable student of the game. He is most definitely NOT in "the most vulnerable part of his playing career".

[Three]

T3, you jumping to the conclusion that he is a small BR, low level player, who hasn't "investigated things" is 100% inaccurate. He is a very knowledgeable student of the game. He is most definitely NOT in "the most vulnerable part of his playing career".

My conclusion was that he wasn't a small BR player so he never bothered to check out the effect an artificial lower barrier has, increasing the percentage gain in EV dramatically when playing to the same RoR and BR. This makes their attempt to grow a BR take far less time assuming they avoid ruin. For these numbers to work out early ruin is increased for the player betting more with more indices but later ruin is greatly decreased and the average time it takes for you to hit an expected threshold to increase spread is reduced. Like Don says ruin catches you early because your BR should be growing. This allows you a shorter time at this early stage and if you survive a quicker pace to outrun ruin. Remember RoR is the same so you haven't changed the odds of ruin you just changed when ruin is likely and the pace you expect to outrun ruin. Most people only investigate what affects them rather than try to get a thorough understanding of all aspects of the game even when it doesn't affect them. I can't blame them. It is human nature and all but those that crave general knowledge of the game do the same. I just thought he might take the time to run some sims himself before denying the magnification of the gains they show when going up against an artificial lower boundary to betting and advising small BR players not to learn 30 or so more indices. Few of the small BR players bother because they keep getting advised that gains for anything above the simplest of approaches is not worth it.

Remember I wrote a thread on this topic before and was accused of cherry picking. But one BR challenged person ran his own sims and found he could gain 40% in EV while playing at the same RoR by being able to spread more at the same RoR for his BR by using full indices rather than the I18/Fab4. This was due to him not being able to spread as much with the I18 and have a RoR he was comfortable with along with the normal small gain from the extra indices. Without the artificial lower boundary that all small BR players deal with to some extent this affect is not there to an extent that your spread changes. Only your bet size changes and for a small BR the practical bets make taking advantage of betting more awkward since a lot of the time the practical bet is not changed. If they are willing to bet a rainbow of white and red they get the extra gain over fewer indices. But when the spread changes rather than just the bet size is when the gains get extremely magnified. You need the lower boundary to your spread and an unwillingness to play to a ridiculous RoR to see this exaggerated gain. That can happen at any table minimum but typically it is the small BR players that have this option to help them outrace ruin faster if they don't fail quickly.

[BoSox]

That said there are diametrically opposed things when new players are seeking guidance. First they are new and may need to crawl then walk etc to be successful although a small percentage may have the ability to and patience (a key part of the equation) to start into counting at a more advanced level. I mentioned patience because the learning curve is steeper so you must understand it will take longer to be ready to enter a casino but when you enter you will be more prepared rather than starting too early and knowing just enough to be your own worst enemy as many do if they counting part is too easy.

C.

The key point in Tthree's above quote if anyone is paying attention " although a small percentage may have the ability to and patience (a key part of the equation) to start into counting at a more advanced level." Considering the amount of new players on this board Tthree is speaking to a a very small audience while at the same time possibly giving false hopes and dreams to many new players.

Second the advice of people with huge BR's that need not worry about variance and swings is not good advice for someone that is BR challenged which many newbies are.

If players are very well bankrolled, how the hell did they get that way? Certainly by not being narrow minded especially regarding variance and swings.Most all players that are well bankrolled are successful because of the game. For Tthree to think these players somehow overlook, or mistake there advice to new players, based on their own circumstances is nothing but paranoia thinking.

New players you want some great advice follow this below:

Originally Posted by KJ
I am not questing anyone success or qualification, but the fact is some of the ideas and methods you guys are promoting ARE NOT the consensus of the professional level players of the community. I just don't think that is an ideal situation for a site made up of mostly newer and lower level players to be hearing one minority position on a number of topics.

[Norm]

I side counted aces in shoe games for a while. A very short while. I don't recommend it.

[Freightman]

I used to casino hop A.C. I was able to play 14 to 16 hours straight using Hi/Lo. Maybe 1.5 hours were spent walking and eating a sandwich. I don't believe I could have played anywhere near that long using an advanced count. It would have made me tired.

I've heard the argument a 100 times, have never commented on it.

Maybe for some, bit I really don't buy it - I've done it - and when I get tired, it's because i should be getting tired, not because I'm mentally fatigued from blackjack.

[Norm]

A lot fewer aces in SD.