Re: Strength of Schedule

[Dan Gordon]

NFL: CORRECT WAY To Gauge: 'Strength of Schedule'

Below is part of the 'NFL Weekly Round-Up' I send clients around the middle of every NFL week. If you would like to know more what I offer clients, you can e-mail me at [email protected] or check out my site at: dangordonsportpicks.net

From the moment that the official NFL schedule was made known many handicappers tried to calculate which teams had the easiest/toughest slates for 2015. From these calculations, many futures bets were placed: most often on team over/under wins.

However, a fatal mistake made by these bettors (many of them 'esteemed market-forces') was that they made these calculations based on the 2014 records (last season's) of teams. Fact is that this is the 2015 season and what matters in figuring a team's strength of schedule is the strength of a team this season. While what happened in 2014 may have some connection with how a team does this season, the fact is that, especially in these days of free agency, teams can change a lot from one season to the next. So it is who teams play this year which will determine how well their schedule 'plays out!'


With the above in mind, here are my predicted final 2015 standings from which it can be calculated--the more accurate I am on these projections the better I will do in these calculations. When teams have ended up with the same record, the team that wins my 'tiebreaker' (which is the EXACT total number of wins rounded off to two decimal places) is listed on top.

NFC
East: Eagles 11-5; Cowboys 9-7; Giants 6-10; Redskins 5-11
North: Packers 12-4; Vikings 9-7; Lions 8-8; Bears 5-11
South: Falcons 9-7; Saints 9-7; Panthers 7-9; Bucs 7-9
West: Seahawks 11-5; Rams 7-9; Cards 7-9; 49ers 6-10

Playoff seeds: 1. Packers, 2. Eagles, 3. Seahawks 4. Falcons 5. Cowboys 6. Saints
Note: Cowboys and Saints are the projected 'Wild Card' teams.

AFC
East: Patriots 9-7; Dolphins 9-7; Bills 8-8; Jets 7-9
North: Ravens 9-7; Bengals 9-7; Steelers 9-7; Browns 6-10
South: Colts 10-6; Texans 8-8; Jaguars 7-9; Titans 5-11
West: Chargers 9-7; Broncos 9-7; Chiefs 8-8; Raiders 6-10

Playoff seeds: 1. Colts, 2. Patriots, 3. Ravens, 4. Chargers, 5. Bengals, 6. Broncos (Bengals and Broncos being the 'Wild Card' seeds.)

Note: I am sure that some of my projections have raised eyebrows amongst many of you. Since time constraints stop me from going into full analysis on all 32 teams, I suggest you e-mail me with any questions about your 'eyebrow raising.' I will do my best to answer all such questions.

With the above projected standings in mind, here is how the 'strength of schedule' breaks down in 2015. The three teams with the toughest slates (the opponents of each of these teams are projected to finish with a 134-122 record) are the Panthers, Lions, and 49ers. In terms of the number of 2015 playoff opponents teams will play in the coming regular season, the Panthers and Steelers each have nine such opponents. The Panthers play Falcons and Saints from their division each twice, as well as games at Seattle, and at Dallas and home games against the Eagles, Colts, and Packers. The Steeler games against projected playoff teams are two each against the Bengals and Ravens in their division as well as road games at the Patriots, Seahawks, and Chargers as well as home battles versus the Colts and Broncos.

The team with by far (two games easier than the next easiest slate--the Falcons) the easiest schedule is the Eagles. Their 2015 opponents are projected to have a composite 120-136 log. Their weakest opponents are the divisional rival Giants (6-10) and Redskins (5-11)--each of whom they play twice--as well as games against the following projected 7-9 clubs: at the Jets and Panthers and home games against the Bucs and Cards. The Eagles have no opponents with a higher projected 2015 record than 9-7.

In terms of least projected playoff opponents played in 2015 the Packers and defending NFC champs, the Seahawks, 'lead' the way with four (including a Week Two game in Green Bay against each other). The Packers also play two of their other three projected 2015 playoff opponents (Chargers and Cowboys) at home. The Seahawks, however, play all four of their projected 2015 playoff opponents (Bengals, Cowboys, and Ravens, in addition to the Packers) on the road.

Since I was using projected 2015 records (and starting letter power ratings) to 'play out the schedule' (did this last Friday and early Saturday) that explains some of my 'eyebrow rising' standing predictions and final records.

[Dan Gordon]

I am very surprised that you see the Eagles doing so well since they have given away so many high grade players. Also pretty heavy internal criticism of their coach.
Trading away Nick Foles shocked me. Last year wasn't good for him but he was great the previous year. I thought he was among the NFL's best QBs.

Drunk,

To answer your points.
1) I am not aware of any 'heavy internal criticism' of their coach, Chip Kelly. In fact, from everything I have read, the players much like him and his methods.

2) In terms of what the Eagles have lost and gained since last season.
A) The loss of Nick Foles at QB is, I feel, more than balanced by the gain of Sam Bradford: the number one NFL draft pick in 2010. In the long run, I think we shall see that the great season Foles had as a rookie will be an abberration. The Foles of last season will be viewed as far more the 'normal Foles' than what happened in 2013--a season where everything went right for him--including several very possible interceptions dropped by defenders. When he was not beset with injuries--as he was in 2013 and 2014--Bradford showed great potential with a far inferior Ram supporting cast than what he will have in Philly. Unless Bradford shows that he is 'damaged goods' the Eagles win this 'trade' BIG TIME.

B) The loss of WR Jeremy Maclin will be at least equalled by their top draft pick, in Nelson Agholor. BTW, Agholor is a rookie and Maclin is in his seventh year. When a team can make a 'trade' in which six years of youth is gained, it is often intelligent to do so--the gain being both in long-term play and salary cap money saved (the minimum pay for a player goes up with time put in the league). Agholor has been excellent in the pre-season and in training camps.

C) Loss of Evan Mathis on the OL. True he is still a strong player (picked up by the starving OL Broncos. However, Mathis is in his 11th year and missed 11 games last year in Philly. Is he possibly 'damaged' medically? Not sure. However, with the return of Allen Barbre and making third year man Matt Tobin, starters at guard the Eagles still have one of the best OL's in the league. Tackles Jason Peters and Lance Johnson as well as center Jason Kelce are all amongst the best at their position in the NFL.

D) Loss of DE-LB Trent Cole is more than balanced by his talent declining in recent years as well as the huge 'step ups' in the play of front seven Eagle defenders: Fletcher Cox, Connor Barwin, and Mychal Kendricks.

With DeMarco Murray giving the Eagle running game a huge bump up (the presence or Ryan Matthews at RB will lessen any wear on Murray) which will make their passing game even better, the Eagle offense even better than it was in 2014.

In 2014, the Eagles went 10-6 despite having a horrid defense and being forced to use journeyman Mark Sanchez at QB for half the season. With the offense being better and the defense now being above average, the Eagles should much improve on last year's performance. Assuming that Bradford holds up, the eagles should be battling the Packers and Seahawks as to who is the NFC entry in the next Super Bowl.
C)

[Three]

Well you put any pro QB in with one of the best O-lines in football to protect him, one of the best RB's in the league in his backfield to keep the defense honest and a great deep threat to stretch the defense and they should do just fine. As long as their defense isn't horrible the Eagles should win a number of games with any competent pro QB.

[Dan Gordon]

You made some good points. I'm not as high on Bradford as you and I have nothing good to say about Sanchez. ESPN gave Bradford a 49.5 rating in 2012, a 24.3 rating in 2011 and a 37.4 rating in 2010. The highest QB ratings for those years were 83, 86 and 73. I think if you are right about Bradford then you could be right. There was some locker room talk about Kelly not relating well to the African American players on the team but I'm not sure how significant that is. Of course, I don't like the Eagles at all which probably biases my opinion. I did like Foles quite a bit and thought he had some tough breaks last year.

1) I was incorrect in not mentioning the problems, given major mention, between Kelly and some Black players on the Eagles. Sadly, even in these so-called 'progressive times,' such problems exist in many workplaces--which include pro sports teams--today. In many cases teams winning have a way of stopping these problems from occurring/getting worse. That some Blacks on the Eagles have contradicted what others have said about Kelly not relating well to Blacks, does not stop that problem from existing.

2) Re: ESPN. I know that the fellow running this site, Norm Wattenberger, hates for any kind of slander to be present here, so will 'couch' what I say on this topic. DO NOT USE ANY 'POSITION' or RATING said by ANY ESPN SOURCE as any type of betting aid. They have so many 'earnee' (losing or non-AP) bettors there that they can/should open their own chapter of 'Gamblers Anonymous.' Giving Norm some respect, I will not here name names, but this is a topic I have FIRST-HAND knowledge of. Suggest you use OBJECTIVE FACTS they state but not any opinions or 'rating systems' (which are all SUBJECTIVE) to aid in your wagering.

2A) Second suggestion gleanned from what you said about 'not liking the Eagles at all.' You can root for your favorites and you can root against teams you personally dislike. Those are YOUR FEELINGS and thus will NEVER 'BE WRONG.' But do NOT BET on or against your favorites or teams 'you do not like at all.' Unltimately, your wallet and any people who depend financially on you (which I assume includes yourself) will much thank you for abstaining from your betting.

[Jabberwocky]

NFL: CORRECT WAY To Gauge: 'Strength of Schedule'

Below is part of the 'NFL Weekly Round-Up' I send clients around the middle of every NFL week. If you would like to know more what I offer clients, you can e-mail me at [email protected] or check out my site at: dangordonsportpicks.net

From the moment that the official NFL schedule was made known many handicappers tried to calculate which teams had the easiest/toughest slates for 2015. From these calculations, many futures bets were placed: most often on team over/under wins.

However, a fatal mistake made by these bettors (many of them 'esteemed market-forces') was that they made these calculations based on the 2014 records (last season's) of teams. Fact is that this is the 2015 season and what matters in figuring a team's strength of schedule is the strength of a team this season. While what happened in 2014 may have some connection with how a team does this season, the fact is that, especially in these days of free agency, teams can change a lot from one season to the next. So it is who teams play this year which will determine how well their schedule 'plays out!'


With the above in mind, here are my predicted final 2015 standings from which it can be calculated--the more accurate I am on these projections the better I will do in these calculations. When teams have ended up with the same record, the team that wins my 'tiebreaker' (which is the EXACT total number of wins rounded off to two decimal places) is listed on top.

NFC
East: Eagles 11-5; Cowboys 9-7; Giants 6-10; Redskins 5-11
North: Packers 12-4; Vikings 9-7; Lions 8-8; Bears 5-11
South: Falcons 9-7; Saints 9-7; Panthers 7-9; Bucs 7-9
West: Seahawks 11-5; Rams 7-9; Cards 7-9; 49ers 6-10

Playoff seeds: 1. Packers, 2. Eagles, 3. Seahawks 4. Falcons 5. Cowboys 6. Saints
Note: Cowboys and Saints are the projected 'Wild Card' teams.

AFC
East: Patriots 9-7; Dolphins 9-7; Bills 8-8; Jets 7-9
North: Ravens 9-7; Bengals 9-7; Steelers 9-7; Browns 6-10
South: Colts 10-6; Texans 8-8; Jaguars 7-9; Titans 5-11
West: Chargers 9-7; Broncos 9-7; Chiefs 8-8; Raiders 6-10

Playoff seeds: 1. Colts, 2. Patriots, 3. Ravens, 4. Chargers, 5. Bengals, 6. Broncos (Bengals and Broncos being the 'Wild Card' seeds.)

Note: I am sure that some of my projections have raised eyebrows amongst many of you. Since time constraints stop me from going into full analysis on all 32 teams, I suggest you e-mail me with any questions about your 'eyebrow raising.' I will do my best to answer all such questions.

With the above projected standings in mind, here is how the 'strength of schedule' breaks down in 2015. The three teams with the toughest slates (the opponents of each of these teams are projected to finish with a 134-122 record) are the Panthers, Lions, and 49ers. In terms of the number of 2015 playoff opponents teams will play in the coming regular season, the Panthers and Steelers each have nine such opponents. The Panthers play Falcons and Saints from their division each twice, as well as games at Seattle, and at Dallas and home games against the Eagles, Colts, and Packers. The Steeler games against projected playoff teams are two each against the Bengals and Ravens in their division as well as road games at the Patriots, Seahawks, and Chargers as well as home battles versus the Colts and Broncos.

The team with by far (two games easier than the next easiest slate--the Falcons) the easiest schedule is the Eagles. Their 2015 opponents are projected to have a composite 120-136 log. Their weakest opponents are the divisional rival Giants (6-10) and Redskins (5-11)--each of whom they play twice--as well as games against the following projected 7-9 clubs: at the Jets and Panthers and home games against the Bucs and Cards. The Eagles have no opponents with a higher projected 2015 record than 9-7.

In terms of least projected playoff opponents played in 2015 the Packers and defending NFC champs, the Seahawks, 'lead' the way with four (including a Week Two game in Green Bay against each other). The Packers also play two of their other three projected 2015 playoff opponents (Chargers and Cowboys) at home. The Seahawks, however, play all four of their projected 2015 playoff opponents (Bengals, Cowboys, and Ravens, in addition to the Packers) on the road.

Since I was using projected 2015 records (and starting letter power ratings) to 'play out the schedule' (did this last Friday and early Saturday) that explains some of my 'eyebrow rising' standing predictions and final records.

Why should anyone care?

[Dan Gordon]

Why should anyone care?

Obviously you do not. However, others might.

[Three]

It can be very difficult to handicap early in the season before you see how teams gel each year. For those that are good at figuring that out who a team is before the season starts each year, the early season has some of the best betting opportunities of the year. Lines are driven by betting trends that have more to do with who a team was rather than who they are now. It is good to hear from someone that has the ability to determine who a team is this year and takes the time to do it. For others betting opportunities only present themselves once they see the new team playing enough games in the regular season. Their opportunities are 5 weeks into the season for a while before the general public clues into the new teams identities. I think I have been spending too much time on refining my casino play to do both that and the research necessary to properly handicap games. I will still be entertained by and enjoy pro football but I doubt I will try to devote any time to handicapping. The money I made just isn't worth the time I put into it especially considering how much I make in the casino. Anyway I will enjoy the season more with Don's insights even though I probably won't place a wager unless I find a promo worth playing. I have seen them in brick and mortar casinos before in my area. I didn't see any of these last year but you never know what you might run across.

Thanks Dan and good luck to everyone that enjoys betting on pro football this season.

[Dan Gordon]

It can be very difficult to handicap early in the season before you see how teams gel each year. For those that are good at figuring that out who a team is before the season starts each year, the early season has some of the best betting opportunities of the year. Lines are driven by betting trends that have more to do with who a team was rather than who they are now. It is good to hear from someone that has the ability to determine who a team is this year and takes the time to do it. For others betting opportunities only present themselves once they see the new team playing enough games in the regular season. Their opportunities are 5 weeks into the season for a while before the general public clues into the new teams identities. I think I have been spending too much time on refining my casino play to do both that and the research necessary to properly handicap games. I will still be entertained by and enjoy pro football but I doubt I will try to devote any time to handicapping. The money I made just isn't worth the time I put into it especially considering how much I make in the casino. Anyway I will enjoy the season more with Don's insights even though I probably won't place a wager unless I find a promo worth playing. I have seen them in brick and mortar casinos before in my area. I didn't see any of these last year but you never know what you might run across.

Thanks Don and good luck to everyone that enjoys betting on pro football this season.

Thanks, 'Tthree.' But please call me 'Dan' as opposed to 'Don.' As smart people know, the BEST REAL FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITIES exist ONLY BEFORE 'the crowd' learns about them. This is true in NFL (and all sports) betting, in blackjack as well as in virtually every financial venture. What you wrote above, shows that you know this fundamental fact. Most folks live their entire lives as scared sheep being unwilling to go 'against the experts'/'authorities.' I am sure that you have gotten to know many of these sheep, Tthree. As well as seen them get fleeced''shorned' many times.

Example, whenever I see stock market 'bettors' reading "The Wall Street Journal" for 'advice' I know that, if they take what is written there seriously, they are betting earnees (non AP players) because: 1) Writers for these publications are mostly people who lost money investing THEIR OWN MONEY and now want you to do the same; 2) If what they are writing of EVER had any value, that value has long gone 'bye-bye' since it is long been known by all; 3) They are always inevitably locking the barn door long after the horse has left the barn.

One other thing I hope you and other readers here realize. If someone is loudly giving out investment advice IN ANYTHING, don't take it seriously at all UNLESS THEY ARE INVESTING THEIR OWN MONEY ON IT!! I have a life-time friend named Pizza Pie Face. Early in his work career, he wanted to add to his finances by doing stock market investing. To do so PPF needed to invest through a broker. This broker had much advice to give to PPF and often chided his 'amateur' investment thoughts. Of course, he NEVER PUT UP HIS OWN MONEY ON HIS OWN ADVICE. As you might guess happened PPF--who is not an assertive person and is scared to insult others--lost his entire stock market 'stake' following and INVESTING HIS MONEY FOLLOWING 'the esteemed advice' of the broker (and would have done well if he merely followed what HE wished to do), while the broker easily lived to see another day to continue to give out his garbage advice which I am sure has led other insecure stock market investors to 'ruin' as well.

[bigplayer]

Chip Kelly criticism is virtually all from trouble making ex players who got traded away for their failure to mesh with Kelly's team concepts or because Kelly felt they were overrated and he could get more value by getting rid of them.