NFL odds....is 8 the new 7?

**Three** · 09-08-2015, 04:25 PM

Team B blocks the kick attempt and runs it in.

**Three** · 09-08-2015, 06:18 PM

That is pretty complicated. It should make the game more interesting but handicapping may take some getting used to. Some teams stadiums border on big bodies of water. This usually can make one or both ends of the field challenging to kick from. Two point conversions may be the plus EV play when the environment is known to be an important influence on the success of the kick.

**Three** · 09-09-2015, 04:22 AM

You really try to put words into another persons mouth. If you understood my comment I said that you would need several seasons to approach expectations (not determine expectation) but after the first season the odds will change due to more teams covering the possibility of a fake killing the opportunity to a big degree. My conclusion is quoted below.

Originally Posted by Tthree

So the results will likely never give you any sense for the true odds.

The coaches will only try it if the scout a weakness on the other teams defense on the PAT and continue to see it during the game. I watched my tape of the Redskins/Ravens game. The Raven's dropped 2 defenders to join the 1 that lined up back and never ran the same 3 d-back defense twice. The Redskin's didn't show a concern for a fake and might be vulnerable to it.

**Three** · 09-09-2015, 04:52 AM

The sample from later would nave different odds and numbers of opportunities than the initial season. I thought I was clear on that. It is like continually changing the rules or number of ranks used in a sim and expecting the results to be meaningful. That was my point and since the conclusion was the results will never be meaningful the subtitles of what was said where not important. People ask me to keep my comments shorter. You had just said I wrote a lot of words but didn't say much. I assumed you would understand the point rather than try to find things to argue about. Perhaps I misunderstood your intentions in this dialog. Now do you want me to spend lots of words explaining every detail so you can't twist them or can I assume you are not looking to search my posts for things to argue about and just try to understand my points? You can't have it both ways. Choose one.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 09-09-2015, 04:58 AM

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**Three** · 09-09-2015, 05:48 AM

Since you seem bent on just finding stupid stuff to argue about rather than areal discussion I am surprised you didn't attack my misuse of "expectation" as expectation for this first season will never be determined. That was my point. You said I would do something I would not do and I said it was okay for you to use the argument since your mind has proven to go there and was simply making the point that the actual results from the first season would never have a large enough sample to reflect anything and that subsequent years the way the defenses play will react to the first season attempts to exploit a vulnerability. So there is no value to approach. But time would be better spent for you trying to understand a point rather than being a troll on the boards here. I hope you do not continue trolling here. Now you have shown yourself to be a troll. If that is the reputation you want to have on the site continue to try to miss the points being made and keep trying to argue about stupid stuff. It is revealing as to what your motivation is for posting on the site. I will not continue to feed the troll.

**Three** · 09-09-2015, 06:59 AM

No. I only accuse others of trolling if they start arguing stupid off point stuff rather than trying to understand the post. There have not been that many that I have accused of trolling and I think every one most would agree with and many have also accused them of trolling. I could have argued when they resorted to personal attacks that they were trolling but they haven't had a history of trolling. I reserve the accusation for those with a history of trolling.

In Internet slang, a troll (/?tro?l/, /?tr?l/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by STARTING ARGUMENTS or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory,[1] EXTRANEOUS, or OFF-TOPIC MESSAGES in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the DELIBERATE ATTEMPT OF PROVOKING AN EMOTIONAL RESPONSE[2] or of otherwise DISRUPTING NORMAL ON-TOPIC DISCUSSION.[3]

Now you brought up the stats and sample size so I assume you considered making the argument. Then I backed you up that is was a valid argument if you wanted to make it and showed why. Then you started arguing about not inserting every last detail to getting to the conclusion when I was backing up your position after saying I had been too wordy. Now you want to argue about being a troll when what you did fits practically every aspect of the definition of a troll as I have capitalized in the above wikipedia definition. Now try to stay on topic and try to understand what the other person is saying rather than try to dissect what they said so you can continue to argue extraneous and off-topic stuff in a deliberate attempt to get under people's skin. Like I said try to understand what a person is saying rather than focus on what was said to take things out of context or in a way that was unintended. Your trolling is extremely transparent and spot on the definition of a troll. if that is the reputation you want on this site please continue. If you want to be taken seriously try to understand what a person is saying.

You remind me of a very negative person that wants to take everything in a bad way. Like saying you look nice in that dress. The negative person responds, Are you saying I look like crap all the time. Of course nothing like that was intended or said but the individual just wants to argue so that is what she comprehends from the compliment. there was no attempt to hear what was the person was saying only an attempt to twist it into something to argue about. Maybe you are just having a bad day or stretch and are taking your frustrations out by trashing a thread. IU suggest you try to focus or go to a site that welcomes this kind of posting.