Losing streak rant - PART NINE

[mickeymouse]

A little over a week ago I posted a new all-time high of winning $11.4k for the year.

A mere six sessions later, I have lost half of those winnings.

NOTHING will go right. Whoever I am playing with, usually one other person, gets dealt all the good hands. I get dealt all the stiffs and invariably bust. There are no bumps, it is just one downhill slide. When I get 20 the dealer always pulls a backdoor blackjack or draws to 21.
I have NOT increased my bets. I still get my fair shoe of favourable shoes. Except I virtually never win any hands when that happens.

In 18 hours of play, I estimate I have lost 10% of my turnover. TEN PERCENT. That's equivalent to the 25 times the theoretical house edge - or - a worse game than triple zero roulette.

The last time I had a losing streak this bad, it landed me in net negative territory for thirteen consecutive sessions.

And even when I did achieve my ATH, my hourly rate over the year was still well below expected EV. Now it's a measly $13 an hour - less than the minimum wage in my country. It's just not worth it. For $13 I could be doing something more productive and enjoyable.

I am considering quitting. Either way I am on vacation in the United States starting next week. I am not going to Las Wages - I am going to the fall foliage in New England. It's going to take me a lot to convince me to have a flutter at Foxwoods.

I am so sick of this stupid roller coaster. The graph goes way down, comes up a tiny bit, plateaus for a while when the count is NEGATIVE, and then comes plunging down again. There is no end in sight to what seems like only eternal negative variation and consignment to the extreme left end of the bell shaped curve.

I just can't believe that I even bother.

[Ryemo]

I'm pretty new to the AP world and started counting a year and a half ago. I've logged in about 700 hours in the last 1.5 years and I've learned A LOT in the last year with the aid of software, forum participation, numerous BJ books, casino play, etc.

With that said, I'd like to offer up some advice; forget about your session results! I've seen a few of your past posts and you seem way too concerned with the results of each individual session. If you continue to worry about that, you will drive yourself nuts! The only thing you need to be concerned with is "am I getting +EV in these games?". That's it! Blackjack is a very volatile game. Big swings happen ALL THE TIME! If you're not seeing the big swings (postitive or negative), then chances are that you aren't playing "correctly".

You sound very much like me about a year ago. I was obsessed with the results of every session. I would get excited if I had a big win, but I would get bummed if I lost. I started with $3,000 (thinking this was a nice starting BR at the time) and went on a $30,000 winning streak over a 3 month period. I thought I had it really figured out and I thought I was doing something special. Well, after that nice winning streak, I went on to lose about half of it over the next month. I COULD NOT WIN! But, I believed in the math and I did my homework. I purchased some software and I plugged some numbers into CVCX and re-sized my unit and my top bets to keep my RoR low. I grinded it out and I'm happy to report that I eventually recouped all that money back and have now exceeded my previous BR ATH. I'm no longer emotionally attatched to the money like I used to be. Why? A few reasons:

1) I understand the math and the potential large swings that are involved with this game.
2) I have drilled and trained for many hours, so I know I'm playing a strong game.
3) I never let my emotions dictate my actions EVER! So I never play unless I'm gaining +EV.
4) I constantly plug numbers into CVCX to make sure my RoR is at an optimal level (for me, 3% or below).
5) I do whatever I can to get the most amount of hours/hands dealt to me (try to never play crowded tables or play where I know I won't get much heat so I can grind out as many hours as possible).

I know as long as I follow this regiment, the rest will essentially fall into place. I keep detailed records of every single session that I play, but I never obsess over those results anymore! I'm not quick to celebrate big wins anymore, but I also no longer get down on myself when I take a huge loss either. Just grind out the hours, keep your RoR low, use CVCX to determine optimal betting ramps, always drill yourself so you know your indices cold, and always make sure you're gaining +EV. If you do that, I think you'll come out ahead in the end. Good luck!

- Ryemo

[biggg]

Foxwoods has great games (S17, 85-90% pen) for the game you play and they will tolerate your level of action for quite some time. I would definitely go.

[ZenKinG]

I said it before and ill say it again, the only people who get depressed or angry with the game and the swings are people with limited bankrolls or possibly playing on a replenishable bankroll. The ones who have a good sized bankroll to play year in and year out never even sweat it. That's how it will be for me as well and Im sure that's how it is for everyone. The thing with a small bankroll, you go crazy when you start losing most if not all of it and you know you got nothing else. Big bankroll, there's no pressure and you just keep logging hours after hours until you're in the positive. Im sure there will still be some people who will have a big bankroll and still get angry, but I think in general it's safe to say the ones who go crazy are only the ones with small bankrolls or even replenishable bankroll, where losing that trip roll really hurts and you got to go back to your day job to recoup the funds. Maybe im totally wrong, and it's just me who thinks this way. All I know is that the bigger my bankroll gets, all I see is plastic in front of me, I have no emotional attachment to my money. If the count calls for max bet, I push a couple of plastic chips forward into the circle. Life's good.

[Reign Man]

It's frustrating. The years of riding the roller coaster of streaks certainly take an emotional toll. It's clear from your past posts you have a strong grasp of advantage play concepts, but as ZenKinG points out lack the bankroll to handle variance. Emboldened by watching "21" I thought I knew how to count, but in reality had no idea. Just trying to help I can see you understand the math and the swings, but I suggest you colour up and quit. Do not place another bet unless you're sure you're playing with the advantage and have a low risk of ruin. It appears you've planned your vacation as poorly as your gambling -- the fall foliage won't appear for at least another month.

[greg16394]

I'm pretty new to the AP world and started counting a year and a half ago. I've logged in about 700 hours in the last 1.5 years and I've learned A LOT in the last year......................






........ Good luck!

- Ryemo

This is one of the best post I've ever seen in this forum for me.

[Halbruno]

Ryemo,

Love your post! From $3k to $30K in three months? Nice! What is your approach to the game? Do you play all or wong exclusively? How many hours/days a week did you log to get to that total? Do you play two hands always or spread at TC#? I would love to read more details!

[Ryemo]

Ryemo,

Love your post! From $3k to $30K in three months? Nice! What is your approach to the game? Do you play all or wong exclusively? How many hours/days a week did you log to get to that total? Do you play two hands always or spread at TC#? I would love to read more details!

My $3,000 "Bank Roll" was actually down to it's last $500 before I went on a very nice streak and ran it up to $33,600. It took about 3 months (playing sometimes 2 to 4 times/week). I have to say that I got extremely lucky! I was operating at an extremely high RoR (didn't know that at the time) and was lucky enough to fall on the positive side of variance. This could be a pretty good example of a Hail Mary approach.

When I first started, I'm pretty sure I wasn't even playing a winning game for the first 6 months that I was counting. I was red chipping it with crowded 6D tables, with low spreads. But I kept playing and kept learning. When I was down to my last $500 or so, I started booking a series of $300-$800 session wins, bringing my BR up to the $5,000 point. As this was happening, I was learning more about the game and gaining more confidence to increase my spread. One night I went to one of my local stores, but all the $10 tabels were full. So I strolled into the HL room and started playing at one of the $25 6D games. I ended up booking a $3,350 win that night. After that night, I felt much more confident tackling the high limit rooms, and they were much less crowded! From that point on, I started playing at the $25 tables and spreading from 2 hands of $25 to 2 hands of $250 and $300 eventually. I couldn't lose! If I recall correctly, at one point, I remember playing 18 sessions and only losing 2 of them! And each one of my winning sessions were anywhere from $1,000 - $3,000. I DID have a few fairly large losing sessions during that 3 month period (between $1,000 and $2,700), but it didn't deter me.

Keep in mind, during this period, I didn't own any software and my knowledge of the game was pretty limited. Although, at the time, I thought I was doing something special, due to my very short-term high success rate. After a series of multiple big session wins, my BR reached the $30,000 mark. I really wanted to invest even more time learning as much as I could about the game, because NOW, I finally had a bankroll that was really worth preserving. So I signed up for a membership to BJ21.com, and I have to say, I learned SOOOOO much there! I also purchased CVCX, CVData, and CVBJ, made it a point to further my knowledge on my index plays, and started rapidly reading more BJ books. Even with all of these efforts I made, my BR capped out at an ATH of $33,600, and I started to take some big hits a the tables shortly afterwards. My BR dropped from $33,600 to about $17,000 in just about a month and a half. But I kept at it! I used CVCX to help me readjust my unit size and my bet spread to keep my RoR at an optimal level. I lowered my unit down to $10 (vs $25), but increased my spread a lot! I started spreading 40:1 then eventually 50:1 (1x$10 to 2x$200/$250). I finally grinded my way back, and I'm happy to report that I eventually surpassed my previous BR ATH.

Over the last year, I have become much more conscious in regards to my RoR, optimal bet spreads, heat, index plays, etc.. Now that I've finally built a nice starting BR, I normally try to operate at a 5% RoR or less. Even 5% is on the high side for me. I'll try my best to always stay at 3% or below. Some of the DD games I play put me at 1% or lower. As long as I do this, the swings won't bother me. I suppose I'll keep grinding away until I can build up a roll large enough to tackle some other juicy games that I've got my eye on, but not willing to hit just yet.

But what's the moral to this story? I lucked out! Positive variance was on my side, but I could have just as easily busted out anytime! So nothing real special here. I pulled a Hail Mary and succeeded. Sorry for the long post! Hope it wasn't too much.

- Ryemo

[Shadowless]

Very nice story, Ryemo. Glad to hear that you completed the pass.

TL;DR version of his story:

3k to 500 to 5k booking $300-800 wins to 33.6k in ~3 months playing $25 6D $25-2x250-300 booking 1-3k session wins 2-4x/week to 17k in ~1.5 months at same limits to playing $10 min but increasing spread from $10-2x250 to new ATH.

[mickeymouse]

Losing streak continues, with only one session won out of the past nine.

Lost $425 in latest session, lucky to escape that lightly, lost all the key hands when all the splits and doubles failed.

Soon be in Minusland....

[Bodarc]

Two suggestions that may help you smooth out the ride just a little bit.
1. Spend as much time searching for a good game or a good dealer as you do playing.
2. Without being obvious, never ever take your eyes off of the dealer's shuffle.

In my opinion, to just walk into a casino, sit down at the first table you come to and start playing is a mistake.

[Halbruno]

Ryemo,

As a Chinese dealer once said when I doubled and won A8 v 2, at the correct TC BTW, YOU LUCKY!

I am amazed at your winning "streak." I have gone in with $500 many times hoping to ride that positive wave only to leave with empty pockets. I am surprised that you got away with betting $10 to 2 x $250! That ramp screams card counter! I guess your local casino is very tolerant or you have a few different ones to visit each week?

[Ryemo]

Ryemo,

As a Chinese dealer once said when I doubled and won A8 v 2, at the correct TC BTW, YOU LUCKY!

I am amazed at your winning "streak." I have gone in with $500 many times hoping to ride that positive wave only to leave with empty pockets. I am surprised that you got away with betting $10 to 2 x $250! That ramp screams card counter! I guess your local casino is very tolerant or you have a few different ones to visit each week?

I play a lot of stores in MO, and the casinos there cannot back you off or ban you for counting. I have been countermeasured many times (half shoe, pref shuffle), but they can't do more than that. I rotate about 5 stores, 3 or 4 of which are very tolerant. I still bomb 50:1 spreads on their $10 tables, but what's the worse they can do? Half shoe me and refuse to comp me? I'm ok with that. They can't 86 me. One of my stores dropped me to the lowest tier so I would no longer get comps (used to have a host at this particular store). So I don't even play rated anymore.

If I notice that I'm being watched heavily, I may tone it down or move to a different pit once I've shown my spread. The goal is to try to play as long as I can, but I want to extract the most amount of money at the same time. I began to learn what the casinos in my area are comfortable with. It seems like they take my action well, so long as I'm not rubbing their faces in it. I also try my best to keep track of different pit bosses and take notes on them. Some of the bosses are clueless (or just don't care), and I try to play on their shifts. A few of them are pretty sharp though and I will avoid these guys at all costs, because it would just be asking for trouble. The only thing you need to worry about is the sharp bosses informing the brain-dead ones (which has happened to me before :/).