16 vs. 10

[FerrisB]

Howdy, howdy.

I play hi opt II. Prefer a DD game. I also use the illustrious 18. From what I know, you stand at a TC +1 when you hold 16 and the dealer is showing a 10.

Here is my question, if this is the last hand and the dealer is going to shuffle once the table plays, do you still stand on 16? Let's say the count is +2, you and two others at the table. The two players before you both hit and each received a 10 valued card. Count is +2 and it's your turn. Follow the math and stand?

Thanks,
FerrisB

[ZenKinG]

Well the general rule for 16v10 is use the running count to make your decision. If RC is greater than 0 you stand. This is as close to a 50/50 play as it gets anyway, so you shouldnt stress it. Of course if surrender is allowed, you should always surrender 16v10. Semyon Dukach of the MIT blackjack team actually advises to play the hand based on if there are any 5s seen in that round. If there are no 5s in that current round, you should hit.

[DSchles]

"Here is my question, if this is the last hand and the dealer is going to shuffle once the table plays, do you still stand on 16?"

Can you explain why this being the last hand has anything to do with your index decision?

"Let's say the count is +2, you and two others at the table. The two players before you both hit and each received a 10 valued card. Count is +2

Why is the count (RC?) still +2? Did you mean to write RC now equals 0, instead?

"and it's your turn. Follow the math and stand?"

If your index for standing is TC = +1, and the TC is still +2 (although I don't know why it would be), you stand. If it's zero, you hit. The fact that it is the last hand is irrelevant. But the fact that the TC has changed by the time you play your hand, and that you should play according to all the information you have at the moment you make the play, is, in fact, very relevant.

Maybe I've answered the question you meant to ask!

Don

[ZenMaster_Flash]

The O.P. is hoping to prevent an imminent shuffle by "saving" a card.

What I want to add to this discussion, is that if you want to buy a little

cover - on the cheap - STAND on all 16's. This will only cost you a slight

amount on your minimum bets as those are the only times it is "wrong" to

stand.

[DSchles]

"The O.P. is hoping to prevent an imminent shuffle by "saving" a card."

No, sorry. Read it very carefully. That's NOT the way it reads, at least to me.

Don

[ZenMaster_Flash]

L.O.L.

My mind running a bit too quickly today.
I prematurely stopped reading when it appeared
that he was going to ask the logical question.

[Freightman]

L.O.L.

My mind running a bit too quickly today.
I prematurely stopped reading when it appeared
that he was going to ask the logical question.

I trust you're not premature with all of your endeavours

[ZenMaster_Flash]

My retiring from the work-a-day 9 to 5 world, civilians thought was premature;
as for some of my marriages, my first was too young, the second was too quick,
but the third was "just right". The third in my trilogy I still have not worn out !

[Freightman]

My retiring from the work-a-day 9 to 5 world, civilians thought was premature;
as for some of my marriages, my first was too young, the second was too quick,
but the third was "just right". The third in my trilogy I still have not worn out !

Regarding the trilogy., mazel tov

[BJGenius007]

The O.P. is hoping to prevent an imminent shuffle by "saving" a card.

What I want to add to this discussion, is that if you want to buy a little

cover - on the cheap - STAND on all 16's. This will only cost you a slight

amount on your minimum bets as those are the only times it is "wrong" to

stand.

STAND on all 16's is the worst advice for people to play Blackjack.

If I were to write a BJ book, the most important lesson for a counter is to hit 16 against 10, if he doesn't know the TC or just lose the count. The index play for Hi-Lo on 16 v 10 is somewhere between 0.7 and 0.8. If someone uses Hi-Lo, he wants to hit if TC is less than or equal to 0.7, and he wants to stand if TC is more than or equal to 0.8. The chance to hit is greater since he wants to do so if TC is negative, 0, 0.1, 0.2, up to 0.7.

Look at this topic in another way, the index play for 16 v 10 is 0 in most books. And TC is floored. So when TC is 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, up to 0.9, they are all round down to 0. It is not too bad since you are only wrong when TC is 0.8 or 0.9. In either case, TC is actually too high to hit.

Back to your topic, if you interpret the index play as "to stand in all 16 v 10" because it is better than "to hit in all 16 v 10", you are terribly wrong. Sixteen v ten happens so often, AP taking such an action will perform worse than ploppies following the book "always hit 16 against 7-10".

[ZenKinG]

STAND on all 16's is the worst advice for people to play Blackjack.

If I were to write a BJ book, the most important lesson for a counter is to hit 16 against 10, if he doesn't know the TC or just lose the count. The index play for Hi-Lo on 16 v 10 is somewhere between 0.7 and 0.8. If someone uses Hi-Lo, he wants to hit if TC is less than or equal to 0.7, and he wants to stand if TC is more than or equal to 0.8. The chance to hit is greater since he wants to do so if TC is negative, 0, 0.1, 0.2, up to 0.7.

Look at this topic in another way, the index play for 16 v 10 is 0 in most books. And TC is floored. So when TC is 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, up to 0.9, they are all round down to 0. It is not too bad since you are only wrong when TC is 0.8 or 0.9. In either case, TC is actually too high to hit.
argum
Back to your topic, if you interpret the index play as "to stand in all 16 v 10" because it is better than "to hit in all 16 v 10", you are terribly wrong. Sixteen v ten happens so often, AP taking such an action will perform worse than ploppies following the book "always hit 16 against 7-10".

I hope you're referring to no surrender games. Surrender should always be the first priority. Of course anyone should hit 16v7 as the true count will rarely be that high to surrender 16v7, but for v8/9 one will look to surrender. Nonetheless, your argument with 16v10 is flawed. Yes the books might floor it to 0, but to say they should ALWAYS hit just because they lost the count makes no sense to me. What if they lost the count and the count is +1 or higher which can easily happen. To your point on always hitting a 16, the count will on average be 0 or less, so I can see where you're coming from if you lost the count, but it's still a flawed argument just because on avg it will be less than 0. But as Norm said, this is a losing play, pick the best way to lose, and the best way to lose is surrender.

If you can't surrender and you lose the count, I would say pick ONE way of playing it and consistently do it throughout your whole career, because the pit and surveillance will look for how you play your 16s based on the count and any change in play will be a red flag. So for me ALWAYS standing on 16 is my way of playing it, because big money is wagered in the + counts, so it will be easy to stay consistent with standing and also the correct play at the time with big money on the felt. If it goes negative, you simply stay consistent by standing and because it's a negative situation you will most likely have your minimum bet or close to your minimum bet at the time even if it was around +1 before the round started, so even though it will be the wrong play, you wont be losing much. Let's also remember that the 16v10 is as close to a 50/50 as it gets when it comes to a hit/stand matchup, but longevity should not be underestimated, which is why I advocate to pick a way to play that hand and stay consistent for as long as you play. For me, as well any other player in my opinion, if you're going to pick one way of playing that hand forever, it should obviously be SURRENDER ALL 16sv10, but if you cant surrender, STAND ON ALL 16s and yes that applies to 3+ card 16's as well.

[BJGenius007]

I hope you're referring to no surrender games. Surrender should always be the first priority. Of course anyone should hit 16v7 as the true count will rarely be that high to surrender 16v7, but for v8/9 one will look to surrender. Nonetheless, your argument with 16v10 is flawed. Yes the books might floor it to 0, but to say they should ALWAYS hit just because they lost the count makes no sense to me. What if they lost the count and the count is +1 or higher which can easily happen. To your point on always hitting a 16, the count will on average be 0 or less, so I can see where you're coming from if you lost the count, but it's still a flawed argument just because on avg it will be less than 0. But as Norm said, this is a losing play, pick the best way to lose, and the best way to lose is surrender.

If you can't surrender and you lose the count, I would say pick ONE way of playing it and consistently do it throughout your whole career, because the pit and surveillance will look for how you play your 16s based on the count and any change in play will be a red flag. So for me ALWAYS standing on 16 is my way of playing it, because big money is wagered in the + counts, so it will be easy to stay consistent with standing and also the correct play at the time with big money on the felt. If it goes negative, you simply stay consistent by standing and because it's a negative situation you will most likely have your minimum bet or close to your minimum bet at the time even if it was around +1 before the round started, so even though it will be the wrong play, you wont be losing much. Let's also remember that the 16v10 is as close to a 50/50 as it gets when it comes to a hit/stand matchup, but longevity should not be underestimated, which is why I advocate to pick a way to play that hand and stay consistent for as long as you play. For me, as well any other player in my opinion, if you're going to pick one way of playing that hand forever, it should obviously be SURRENDER ALL 16sv10, but if you cant surrender, STAND ON ALL 16s and yes that applies to 3+ card 16's as well.

Yes, I was referring to the situation that surrender is not available. Or you have to make a hit/stand decision on 16 v 10 after you took a few cards already. Also to reply to Norm, 16 v 10 is almost a flip-coin situation. But it happens so often, even a tiny advantage will go a long way in the long run. You should know better, if you write the simulation programs yourself, not hiring some people.

[bigplayer]

STAND on all 16's is the worst advice for people to play Blackjack.

Versus 10 I can't think of a more incorrect statement. It might be correct for a non-counter, but for a counter there are many many more reasons why you would want to always stand on 16 vs 10. The biggest one is the fact that you're not flat betting and standing is the correct play when you got more than your minimum bet on the table. The second biggest reason to always play this the same way (standing) is that it's one of a small handful of plays that the casinos use to decide whether your play deserves further scrutiny (or a skills check). Finally, you don't have to always stand or always hit, you can just adjust your index to something lower where you stand almost all of the time but in those situations where the count is exceedingly negative and you're not able to exit the game you can hit. For example, if you change your index from 0 to -3 you would wind up standing about 90% of the time and when you hit with that minimum bet out you'd at least be getting some small amount of value for the attempt.

Short of that, if you're counting cards and varying your bet with the count you should "almost" always stand on 16 vs 10. (or surrender). If you're not counting (i.e., completely obvious to the deck composition), I'd just play basic strategy and always hit. Obviously there is more value playing the other hands correctly on a per-play basis even though each of the other 16 vs 7,8,9, Ace plays come up far less frequently than 16 vs 10 so I'd just play those exactly as the index calls for. (not to mention, casinos don't look at those other plays at all for making an initial decision about a players "sharpness". Bill Zender has a short list in Casino-ology of plays casinos should use to make the an early decision about whether a player needs further scrutiny. (16v10, 12v4, A7vs10, A8v6, 9v2, Insurance/Even Money)