BJ Results: YTD

[RS]

I don't track my EV as accurately as I should. Part of the reason is because I don't play with 'constant' conditions -- sometimes I'm able to spread more, sometimes less. Sometimes pen is good, bad, or medium. Sometimes it's a fast dealer, sometimes a slow dealer. I prefer to be the best aware of my surrounding [as well as I can be], than to count # of rounds, keep track of my time played, note penetration, dealer speed, etc. Hard enough to keep track of starting chips, cash in and cash-out [if I buy in cash or cash-out chips]. I admit, part of it is laziness and difficulty in tracking EV. Most of my play is NOT blackjack, so I [unwisely] decided when I was making a simple spread-sheet that I would not track EV -- since that can be particularly tricky when it comes to machine play. My machine play is not the standard "play X coin in and get Y free-play back" type of play (well, some of it is, but lot of it is different stuff that's difficult to track EV).


That being said, I just updated my "gambling diary" and entered a bunch of new sessions. I've known that I've been ahead in BJ this year, but didn't really know how far ahead (ahead of $0, not EV). I estimated what my average session time is, my average hourly/EV [mostly a semi-educated guess]. Anyway, wrote a few formulas in Excel to determine what my average hourly return has been and -- sure enough, it's pretty darn close to my projected EV!

Unfortunately, my machine-play results aren't where I'd currently like them to be. I know part of the reason for this is playing poor games with low edges or games with high variance. I also got screwed out of a good amount of free play several times. =\ On the bright side [sort of?], is I should be having a very healthy amount of free-play coming in the next few months. If all goes as planned (cross my fingers), my YTD results should have an increase of 4-5x of what it is now. I have many eggs in a few baskets.


I know next year is still a little ways off, but my goal(s) for next year are:

-Track EV the best I can
-Stay away from mediocre games (both in BJ and machine-play)
-Organize my spreadsheets so they're neater, easier to get the "big picture" stuff, while also easy to pin-point some stuff and get specific results in detail


Hope everyone is having a great year so far.

[KJ]

Tracking EV is tricky for me. To do it accurately would require more time and effort than I am willing to put into it, so my EV is mostly an estimate. With blackjack play, I tend to estimate my EV very conservatively. I have a number per round for half dozen or so games that I play frequently and then it is a matter of just estimating rounds played, which I do based on number of players at table (2.8 cards per round per player).

As I said, I try to err on the conservative side, which is why my actual results (total) over my career have been real close to EV, as opposed to some percent, like 75% that I remember bigplayer once saying was the norm.

Our machine play EV is even more difficult to figure. I can figure EV based on cost of any play vs what that will earn via future mailer offer, which is the real benefit, but there is a secondary source of EV in the form of drawing and contest winnings that come from your play, that I have no idea how to figure in.

For example a couple years ago I won a automobile from a drawing based on machine play entries as well as $10,000 from a weekly football contest where the entry fee was comped based on my machine play. This year, I won a drawing paying my mortgage payment for 12 months based on machine play. I just don't know how to figure EV on these types of things, so I just figure the basic EV of play and future mailer offers and figure any prize winnings are a bonus.

As you mentioned RS, one of the problems with figuring your machine play EV is that you always have future mail offers yet to come in.

[ZeeBabar]

Talking about recording play, I am going to risk being slammed, I went from not doing it to more simple way of just putting in date, casino name, win/loss dollar amount and estimate of time at table in minutes and expenses incurred (gas or hotel room and meals on trip). At the end of each month, I figure out how much I won/lost, the per hour rate. For now, it seems to be enough to tell me if I am winning or losing but not much else.

i know that many full time AP's take far more detailed notes including dealer names and hour, shift and more.

its like the debate between HiLo and higher level counts. Can the effort to change justify the gain in EV?

[Three]

As I said, I try to err on the conservative side, which is why my actual results (total) over my career have been real close to EV, as opposed to some percent, like 75% that I remember bigplayer once saying was the norm.

The missing 25% is probably from mistakes but could be from overestimating EV. Of course in a casino you aren't going to make computer decisions so maybe some that are not as wise about what they give up for cover or whatever are giving up 1/4 of their EV. I really don't worry about tracking EV because I know that my results won't be the same as EV. When I did I usually came in above EV because I use computer sims conservatively so as not to give a false impression of what reality is. Also after playing enough and getting deep into the math you can do things that are very difficult to program into simulators that adds to your expectation. Player options and dealer mistakes are a couple of ways that you add to EV but there are playing decisions like wonging or certain adjustments to play that have some slop you can use to your advantage if you know enough about the subtleties of deck composition and how they affect things. An obvious example for linear counters is seeing a boatload of aces burned quick. Most counts will overestimate the advantage considerably in severely ace depleted deck compositions.

[Three]

its like the debate between HiLo and higher level counts. Can the effort to change justify the gain in EV?

Yes. Record keeping can alert you to serious flaws in your play. Many people don't realize the cost of not putting out big bets when required or not doubling or splitting because they didn't have enough money on them to start a fresh shoe or are just playing scared. They may think they have a big advantage but in fact have given up all their advantage and are actually playing a losing game.

[ZeeBabar]

Yes. Record keeping can alert you to serious flaws in your play. Many people don't realize the cost of not putting out big bets when required or not doubling or splitting because they didn't have enough money on them to start a fresh shoe or are just playing scared. They may think they have a big advantage but in fact have given up all their advantage and are actually playing a losing game.

I agree, and I will get there. I did, to a level I still do, be reluctant to play at higher levels when my BR, the heat, other higher betting players at table, would allow me to do it. For example, I was playing a $25 min. Table, up about $1k, when the DD game gets three other players and the penn is about 67%. The next table is a $50 min. Table with one player playing betting greens to low black and the penn is around 75+%. However, I was uncomfortable trying that game.

[Three]

If you don't have the BR for wild swings betting consistently is important. If you bet differently especially your top bet you are at the mercy of which spread had good results. The top spread taking a beating will be tough to recover from winnings from the lower spread.

[Stealth]

Maybe I am the one out of step but.....

I continue to be amazed that many players so committed to the absolute precision of playing and betting are so lackadaisical with their need to record their play. I see these people using CVCX/CVDATA and the other tools available to get answers to three decimal places and then use general "estimates" to account for their results. Really? You can keep a two level count with a side count but you can not keep enough data from your play to allow you to evaluate it against the math? I hear many that spout "play for EV and the money will take care of itself" and then "estimate" what their EV is for their play.

In a environment where your results can be so obfuscated by variance, the need for accurate and critical feedback throughout your ongoing play is critical.

Evaluating each session as it relates to EV and SD and then questioning the reasons for abnormal results is a very powerful tool to keep your game improving and on track. Evaluating your cumulative play becomes even important and enlightening as you progress toward the long term.

I guess I understand casual players just wanting to let the money "keep the score" and we all know that money is a measure of the variance in the short term.

If you want to gamble, then have at it!

Serious play deserves serious ongoing evaluation.

[ZenKinG]

Honestly, IMO, all you really need to record in your notes is this :

- Store name(s)

- Time you started playing up to the time you left

- Day of the month

- End of Day Profit / Loss

- Heat?

- Rules / Penetration (Is there a notch or is it dealer dependent?) (Specific dealers who gave great pen, write their names down)

With this simple note taking, you can now switch up your playing times and jump around shift to shift to not wear out your welcome at any one store. It will allow you to also play the best games with as less heat as possible at a blink of an eye and knowing whether or not you're winning over time or losing. In my honest opinion this is all you really need. Worrying about how many rounds you're playing or wondering how many big bets you put out, etc, is futile. I think this list should get you pretty far.

[Freightman]

It

Maybe I am the one out of step but.....

I continue to be amazed that many players so committed to the absolute precision of playing and betting are so lackadaisical with their need to record their play. I see these people using CVCX/CVDATA and the other tools available to get answers to three decimal places and then use general "estimates" to account for their results. Really? You can keep a two level count with a side count but you can not keep enough data from your play to allow you to evaluate it against the math? I hear many that spout "play for EV and the money will take care of itself" and then "estimate" what their EV is for their play.

In a environment where your results can be so obfuscated by variance, the need for accurate and critical feedback throughout your ongoing play is critical.

Evaluating each session as it relates to EV and SD and then questioning the reasons for abnormal results is a very powerful tool to keep your game improving and on track. Evaluating your cumulative play becomes even important and enlightening as you progress toward the long term.

I guess I understand casual players just wanting to let the money "keep the score" and we all know that money is a measure of the variance in the short term.

If you want to gamble, then have at it!

Serious play deserves serious ongoing evaluation.

I no longer track my play locally......oh yeah....I don't play locally anymore.

I have to confess, after many years, I'm not as diligent about records as I used to me. I still do mind you, though don't necessarily record immediately, therefore, not always accurately. With my style of play, I know what my win rates are, wins, losses per hour etc etc etc., and of course, I know the change in my bankroll month per month. I know my expected EV, and if I am above or below. Haven't played much lately, but I am planning to get more active on the travel route. Whereas I'm more interested in stats during negative runs, I plan to get back to extensive record keeping, including travel costs etc.

Interestingly enough, I'm not overly concerned about maximizing EV, more interested in hours when travelling alone, less interested in hours, and more with subsidizing (and making a profit) when travelling with the wife. I don't plan in differentiating that in my spreadsheets. Accordingly, travel will be subsidized over fewer hours when my wife is with me, and will affect overall results. Call it a semi retirement lifestyle. My wife will accompany me when playing hours are projected to be limited, but she is not particularly interested if I'm planning loads of hours. Regardless of anything said, I'm actually having a pretty good year on limited hours, so, I hope that continues.

For those starting out, the more data collected, the better. More results with more data, entered into a well planned spreadsheet, will allow you the ability to spot trends in your results, which will help you identify weaknesses, and take corrective action.

[KJ]

Stealth, between aggressive wong outs and exiting after showing my spread, I play short session....very short sessions. At the end of the day, I might have as many as 20 of these shorts sessions with as many as 10 different sets of rules and condition. Yes I could come home and spend time running sims for each of these 20 different sessions, to come up with a more exact EV total. But that would add hours per day to my record keeping and STILL would be dependent on the number of rounds played at each different session, which one way or another is some kind of estimate, unless you are keeping exact count of rounds played in addition to everything else you are tracking. I am just not going to do that.

In addition, we estimate things like penetration. When I eyeball a 6 deck game and determine that penetration is 83% or one deck being cut off, I don't know whether 52 cards are being cut or if it is more like 50 or 54. I am estimating. We do the best we can.

Using the word 'estimate' sounds very casual, but it isn't necessarily so. I trust that I am pretty good at what I am estimating.

[Freightman]

H

Stealth, between aggressive wong outs and exiting after showing my spread, I play short session....very short sessions. At the end of the day, I might have as many as 20 of these shorts sessions with as many as 10 different sets of rules and condition. Yes I could come home and spend time running sims for each of these 20 different sessions, to come up with a more exact EV total. But that would add hours per day to my record keeping and STILL would be dependent on the number of rounds played at each different session, which one way or another is some kind of estimate, unless you are keeping exact count of rounds played in addition to everything else you are tracking. I am just not going to do that.

In addition, we estimate things like penetration. When I eyeball a 6 deck game and determine that penetration is 83% or one deck being cut off, I don't know whether 52 cards are being cut or if it is more like 50 or 54. I am estimating. We do the best we can.

Using the word 'estimate' sounds very casual, but it isn't necessarily so. I trust that I am pretty good at what I am estimating.

I agree with this. It might be prudent when starting to actually keep an EV per hour based type of play and conditions, however, this becomes remarkably tedious when done over an extended period of time. I know what my results should be - kJ knows what his results should be. Same should be true for many if the long term players here.

[Freightman]

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I agree with this. It might be prudent when starting to actually keep an EV per hour based type of play and conditions, however, this becomes remarkably tedious when done over an extended period of time. I know what my results should be - kJ knows what his results should be. Same should be true for many if the long term players here.

One word of caution. My locale does not require reporting of gambling wins, which would not be a true statement for most of the players on the board. On that basis, most of the players should keep, at the least, suitable records to cater to income tax reporting.